Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[che7win] 06/8/2018 13:54

MT, Noticed that myself, interesting prices today.

[mount teide] 06/8/2018 13:37

L2 - Cantor have been aggressively moving up the bid since late-morning. Moving from 19.0p to 19.5p, then 20.0p, and now 20.4p in attempt to attract some selling volume.

Currently - 1 v 2 / 20.4p v 20.6p

[mount teide] 06/8/2018 13:30

ross - when the potential prize for many shareholders is akin to winning the lottery on roll-over week - its likely few would have a problem with pleading guilty as charged!

[buffythebuffoon] 06/8/2018 13:16

He certainly seems to be getting on your nerves..

Buffy

[mount teide] 06/8/2018 13:07

Some background as to why the management might consider the Ortoire natural gas prospects to be "low risk":


What they have said publicly at the AGM and in a recent CEO presentation is that the natural gas prospects have up to 2,000ft of potential pay and were originally drilled by Texaco in the 1950's(when looking for oil) - these wells were abandoned upon hitting gas, as natural gas then was considered worthless, since there was no commercial market on the T&T for natural gas discoveries or means of exporting it from an island location surrounded by deepwater.

It took 50 years before the situation changed, when a consortium of O&G companies built the first LNG export terminal in the Western Hemisphere in over 30 years in the south of T&T at Point Fortin.

In the intervening period, to further complicate matters the T&T oil ministry either lost or binned the records of all the drilling carried out on the Ortoire block during the 1950/60's.

However, rather fortuitously TXP's management found a retired Texaco petroleum geologist who was involved in the drilling of these wells and who, aside from giving them invaluable first hand information had in a stroke of incredible good fortune for TXP, retained the drilling logs/data for the wells, which on examination by TXP's technical team were found to be almost identical to those of the nearby Central Block/Carapal Ridge gas field discoveries, which share the same geology.

TXP's plan for the Ortoire gas prospects is simply to re-drill them - hence the management's description of these prospects as "low risk' as natural gas was found when they were drilled in the 1950's - TXP's 'exploration' drilling programme will simply be to establish the full extent/commerciality of the gas.

AIMHO/DYOR

[mount teide] 06/8/2018 07:30

Interesting interview with a CIO and Equity Portfolio Manager talking about the long term value opportunity the Natural Resource sector is currently offering investors supported with some research to back it up worthy of the name.


Time to Position for a Decade-Long Bull Market in Natural Resources - Sam Pelaez, CIO and Portfolio Manager at Galileo Global Equity Advisors.

[zengas] 06/8/2018 07:08

Range Resources Ltd

RNS Number : 8536W

05 August 2018

RRDSL New Contract Award

Under the work scope of the contract, RRDSL will provide turnkey services for initially drilling one well on Touchstone's onshore WD8 block in Trinidad. The work will be completed using RRDSL's rig 17.

Rig 17 has been mobilized to the location ahead of commencement of drilling operations expected in mid-August, subject to regulatory approvals. The drilling operations are expected to take approximately 15 days.

Rig 17 is one of the four modern rigs which were purchased in 2015. The rig can be used for both drilling and workover operations.

Yan Liu, Range's Chief Executive Officer, commented:

"We are extremely pleased to have secured a contract with a second operator in Trinidad this year, which is a testament to the quality of RRDSL's services, HSSE standards, equipment and personnel. RRDSL is an experienced oilfield services operator with a long track record of successful operations. Its current and past clients include some of the largest operators onshore Trinidad. We are hoping to continue expanding our client base and growing revenues by securing further contract work."

[someuwin] 05/8/2018 19:59

Interims were on 11th August last year - so must be getting close.

[mount teide] 05/8/2018 13:12

Post 2322 - For the sake of clarification what i am arguing is that as in 2002-3, i believe energy and industrial metal stocks are at/close to entering a long period of huge relative outperformance compared to most of the the main constituents of the S&P 500, which is up an incredible 318% from its 2009 global financial crisis low.

By comparison, since 2009 the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index(heavily weighted to oil and Industrial metals) is up just 33% after copper and oil peaked in circa 2010, and subsequently saw oil and copper fall by 82% and 58% respectively by the Q1/2016 commodity cycle low - during which the GSCI was actually underwater compared to its 2009 value, from late 2014 through to mid 2017.

I don't expect an imminent serious equity market crash as in 2000 - 2006 - rather a long period of huge relative underperformance of the S&P 500 stocks compared to energy and industrial metal stocks - where the fundamentals today point to a long cyclical period of strong prices due to the dearth of capital investment over the last half decade and a 70 year low oil replacement ratio.

Another factor that is increasingly likely to strongly impact the demand for oil and copper over the next decade is the growth in the global population and the incredible growth in the size of the 'middle class' communities in large population, fast growing SE Asian Nations like China (estimated to now have a middle class with high disposable income of circa 300 million people - greater than the EU and US).

Indeed, global oil and copper consumption growth for the last 45 years has been driven overwhelmingly by the high population Asia Pacific region where oil consumption has nearly quadrupled - but where oil and copper consumption per capita despite it rapid multi decade growth continues to remain a tiny fraction of that in the USA and Europe.


Regional oil consumption 1965-2017

United States consumption is 3.5 million BPD higher than in 1973, which amounts to growth of just under 15% in 45 years. Demand in the EU has declined by 13% since then.

But demand in the Asia Pacific region climbed from 9.1 million BPD in 1973 to 34.6 million BPD in 2017. This huge increase in demand is the primary reason the global demand curve has marched steadily higher.

Of course, Asia Pacific is where most of the world’s population lives - therefore demand growth is being driven by billions of people who use a lot less oil per capita than the US, but whose per capita consumption is not only rising but accelerating.

Chinese demand has increased by 5.0 million BPD over the past decade, by far the most of any country. But Chinese per capita demand is still only 3.3 barrels per person per year.

The US consumes about 22 barrels per person per year. That is partially a result of a more mobile and affluent population, but US consumption also drives a much larger economy.

To put the current US demand in perspective: if China’s per capita demand were as high, it would be nearly as great as the entire current global consumption.

In second place for the largest increase in oil demand during the past decade is India, which has seen its demand increase by 1.7 million BPD. Third place will probably be a surprise to many - Saudi Arabia has increased its oil demand by 1.5 million BPD during the past decade.

These three countries were the only ones to experience demand growth over one million BPD during the past decade.

The largest decrease in demand over the past decade was in Japan, which saw oil demand decline by 1.0 million BPD. Second place will be another surprise, as the US saw oil demand decline by 800,000 BPD. Italy was third with a decline of 493,000 BPD, while the entire EU saw demand fall by 1.7 million BPD.

Source - 2018 BP Statistical Review of World Energy

[mount teide] 04/8/2018 10:42

Canada - Worsening oil industry transportation bottlenecks sees price differential with WTI blow out this week to an incredible $30.80 a barrel triggering production cuts and re-allocation of capital.


Canada’s Biggest Producer Cuts Drilling As Heavy Oil Price Tumbles - OilPrice.com

'Canada Natural Resources, the largest producer, is allocating capital to lighter oil drilling and is curtailing heavy oil production as the price of Canadian heavy oil tumbled to a nearly five-year-low relative to the U.S. benchmark price.

Due to the transportation bottlenecks, the discount at which Western Canadian Select (WCS)—the benchmark price of oil from Canada’s oil sands delivered at Hardisty, Alberta—trades relative to WTI has been more than US$20 this year.

On Thursday, that discount blew out to US$30.80 a barrel—the largest WCS-WTI differential since December 2013, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Canada Natural Resources said on Thursday in its Q2 results release that its North America crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs) production in the second quarter dropped by 3 percent from the first quarter of 2018, primarily as a result of production curtailments and shut-in volumes of around 10,350 bpd as well as reduced drilling activity and delayed completion and ramp up of certain primary heavy crude oil wells drilled in Q1 and Q2.

“Due to current market conditions the Company has exercised its capital flexibility by shifting capital from primary heavy crude oil to light crude oil in 2018, resulting in an additional 7 net light crude oil wells targeted to be drilled in the second half of the year. Primary heavy crude oil drilling was reduced by 24 net primary heavy crude oil wells in Q2/18, with an additional 35 primary heavy crude oil well reduction targeted for the second half of the year,” Canada Natural Resources said yesterday.

Canada is producing record amounts of heavy oil from the oil sands and its economic recovery is driven by the oil industry, but drillers are finding it increasingly difficult to get this oil to market because pipelines are running at capacity and new ones are finding opposition from various groups.

Until recently, production growth continued despite the pipeline capacity constraint that pressured Canadian crude into a major discount to WTI. Now, the Petroleum Services Association of Canada has cut its well-drilling forecast for this year to a number that will be lower than the 2017 figure. The body expects 6,900 new wells to be drilled in 2018, compared with 7,400 wells predicted in the April forecast. The 2018 figure is also 200 wells lower than that for 2017 as the pipeline shortage begins to bite.'

[mount teide] 04/8/2018 10:27

Following the recent 10% to 20% pullback in oil and industrial metal pricing, oil and industrial metal stocks have only been cheaper relative to the S&P500 once in the last 50 years(1970).

The last great bull market in oil started in late 1999 and it was as late as 2003 before the market became bullish on oil stocks - nearly three years of an oil price bull market elapsed before it really began to be accepted by the equity markets and oil and industrial metal stocks took off.

Today, we are some two and a half years after the energy, industrial metals and commodity price bottom and as in 2002 many market participants are still fighting it. The psychology is likely to change when the oil market finally realises that the rate of increase in US shale oil production is not going to be enough to balance the market - likewise the huge looming copper deficit forecast for much of the next decade is now largely unavoidable due to the waterfall drop off in capital investment since 2013, and which in 2018 is still barely off the 2016 decade low.

Brent oil bottomed at $27.8 in Jan 2016, and is now around $75. Yet, most oil stocks have significantly lagged behind; despite where we are in the commodity cycle and the fact that after a half decade recession the survivors are now super lean businesses with largely fixed operating costs.

We've never had natural resource company valuations relative to the S&P 500 lower than they are today since 1970.

The only other times the stock market has got close to this relative valuation level before was in 1929 and 1999. Stock market history shows these three time periods were exceptional - once in a generation opportunities - to be natural resource investors and in all three instances, in the early following years saw oil and industrial metal stocks strongly lagging the commodity in price recovery.

As sentiment changes, relative outperformance is all but assured for many years if the sector fundamentals and past performance in these long term highly cyclical markets is a reliable guide.

What will be the trigger? Probably, it will come from the increasing realisation that oil and industrial metal market dynamics are much tighter than most market participants - for self serving(China as the worlds largest importer) or other reasons(global trade war/recession fears) - want to believe.

History has repeatedly shown that oil and industrial metal stock recovery phases post long recessions in these highly cyclical long term markets rarely respect wider global economic recessions/softening growth - often posting spectacular gains during global downturns as in 2000-2006, which saw many of the participants of the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index up nearly 400%, while the S&P 500 was still in correction territory some 20% down.

Currently, oil and industrial metal equity market dynamics are strongly signalling a set up today similar to 2002/3 - which heralded a long period of very strong relative outperformance to the wider equity markets during the years ahead.

Ignore the pricing power of long term, highly cyclical, recession ravaged oil and industrial metal markets at your investment return peril!


AIMHO/DYOR

[brasso3] 03/8/2018 18:43

A sea of red across AIM today but TXP held up well. 25p anytime now...

[deltrotter] 03/8/2018 18:00

Trade was from yesterday

[mount teide] 03/8/2018 17:45

A late reported buy of 350,000 @ 20.5p - transaction occurred at 11:30, reporting was delayed until 17:15.

By delaying the publication of the transaction mm's quietly continued lowering their quoted bid price to maximise the profit from each transaction.

Never underestimate their propensity to shamelessly use every trick in the book, legal and illegal(if they think they can get away with it), to maximise their returns!

[crooky1967] 03/8/2018 13:51

And Diane Abbott if they need help with their accounts.

[grannyboy] 03/8/2018 13:37

Better still send Corbyn and the rest of the socialist loving elite to Venezuela, seeing as they want to turn the UK into a socialist utopia, they can experience it at first hand..

[fireplace22] 03/8/2018 13:18

We could send him Phillip Hammond to keep him out of harms way here.

[mount teide] 03/8/2018 13:14

IMF predicts Venezuela’s inflation will surge to one million percent by the end of this year as the country with the world’s biggest oil reserves remains stuck in a huge economic and social crisis.

“We are projecting a surge in inflation to 1,000,000 percent by end-2018 to signal that the situation in Venezuela is similar to that in Germany in 1923 or Zimbabwe in the late 2000’s,” Alejandro Werner, Director of the Western Hemisphere Department, wrote in an IMF blog post last week.

Venezuela’s real gross domestic product is expected to drop by 18 percent this year, which would be the third consecutive year of GDP plunging by double digits, “driven by a significant drop in oil production and widespread micro-level distortions on top of large macroeconomic imbalances,” Werner said.


Meanwhile, as the economic crisis continues to deepen and huge numbers starve and flee the Country the self serving, heavily overweight, venal Marxist leadership is promising a new policy on gasoline (the world’s cheapest)— which is currently generously subsidized by the Marxist regime.

Maduro has promised to roll out a new plan to ease the economic crisis and hyperinflation in a televised address to the nation that was delayed because of an hour-long blackout in the capital Caracas. Predictably, the President didn’t elaborate on the gasoline policy plan, but laughingly said in a televised cabinet meeting:

“I’m committed and with a new national hydrocarbon policy we’ll have enough money, cash, in this country to invest in everything our people need. We’ll have money to spare!”

Meanwhile back in the real world, Venezuelan oil output is expected to drop by over 50% during 2018 to under 1m bopd. Since oil is responsible for 95% of Venezuela's foreign earnings - someone in the President's treasury should take him aside and give him a crash course in basic economics!

[mount teide] 03/8/2018 08:39

Q2/2018 US Oil Production weekly data shown to be nothing more than very poor guesswork.


The US Oil Production Mirage - Nick Cunningham / OilPrice.com


'Some of the surge in U.S. oil production this past spring might have been “a mirage.”

On July 31, the EIA released monthly data on U.S. oil production, which revealed a decline in U.S. output of 30,000 bpd in May, compared to a month earlier. The dip is a surprise, given the widespread assumption that U.S. shale production was continuing to grow at a blistering pace.

To be sure, a big reason for the decline in overall output was the 75,000-bpd decline in production from offshore Gulf of Mexico. But Texas production only rose by 20,000 bpd, a disappointing figure that likely came in far below what most analysts had expected.

Moreover, the monthly total of 10.442 million barrels per day (mb/d) for May is sharply lower than what EIA itself thought at the time. Here are the weekly estimates for U.S. oil production that the EIA put out back then:

April 6: 10.525 mb/d
April 13: 10.540 mb/d
April 20: 10.586 mb/d
April 27: 10.619 mb/d
May 4: 10.703 mb/d
May 11: 10.723 mb/d
May 18: 10.725 mb/d
May 25: 10.769 mb/d


....“Weekly data had shown a strong 324kb/d output rise from March to May. The revised data shows that this rise was a mirage: output actually fell 19kb/d over the period,” Paul Horsnell, head of commodities research at Standard Chartered, wrote in a note.

This is a rather significant development, and it has implications for more recent data releases. “It is time to deal with the statistical gorilla on the oil trading floor,” Horsnell of Standard Chartered wrote, along with analyst Emily Ashford. “We think US crude oil production has not reached the 11 million barrels per day (mb/d) shown in recent weeks in the Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly data, and that it is significantly below 11mb/d, with growth slowing.”

That is a reasonable conclusion, given the roughly 300,000-bpd difference between the two surveys for May.

Most analysts have been assuming an overall slowdown over the next 12 months because of pipeline constraints. However, the EIA figures might suggest that the problem has already started to bite. In April, the EIA predicted in its Drilling Productivity Report that Permian production would jump by 73,000 bpd in May. But the monthly data just released finds only modest gains in Texas (+20,000 bpd) and New Mexico (+3,000 bpd).

Second, the EIA thinks output broke 11 mb/d in July, an all-time high. But judging by the overly-optimistic monthly data from April and May, perhaps the agency is also overstating July figures, which raises the possibility that production is not nearly as high as we currently think.

In the coming months, if monthly U.S. production figures continue to show output undershooting expectations, that would have global ramifications. Most analysts still are baking in strong U.S. shale growth figures into their forecasts. If that additional output fails to materialize, the oil market could end up being a lot tighter than we all expected it to.'

[fardels bear] 02/8/2018 23:31

I think it's got a way to go yet, don't you?

[novicetrade68] 02/8/2018 23:23

Sorry I meant anyone inclined to sell...