Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[awise355] 07/8/2018 22:30

In my opinion and experience of markets, on an individual store basis with this kind of trade activity, blue sky horizon, undervaluation and potential short term expectation on news, coupled against this fly tiger hidden shoe poster i'm going to say with no guarantees who's is a screaming hold! Expect some tree shakes shortly as we progress to 25p by end of week and 30p by end of month, on the expectation of similar performance from 2017 wells drilled.

[flyinghorse1] 07/8/2018 22:21

Regarding production, my main concern till I see the data is production in an annualized (in year average) sense is hard to keep increasing as you have natural decline across all producers, electrical outages,pumps needing re-spaced/replaced etc etc that make it difficult to day in day out deliver growing production due to the nature of the land business--this is not North Sea 14,000 boped single well territory.
So the new wells simply dont add to a base thats declining due to depletion anyway-they fill in the gaps and decline themselves.

On the new well front some of the YE2017 wells have already been RCP'd (Recompleted due to first zone petering out, and if you remove Coora wells then the incremental production from "non Coora " wells is not huge, so I am really interested to see what the sustained impact of these new wells are against the backdrop of declining base.

Its a big plate spinning exercise that takes cash and resources.

For example Q1 was 1543bbls/day sales ave (June presentation)
Say Q2 is 1708bbls/day ave (Stated May 31-June 6th 1831bbls)
Lets say Q3+Q4 is 2000bbls every day

Then the annual average for the year 2018 is 1815bbls/day

If they cant sustain a Q3/4 average of 2000bbls/day (Sales) then the year-end average will be lower. (i.e If Q3/4 is 1900bbls/day then year average is 1764bbls/day)

This is against a backdrop of decline-its normal.

The danger I see here is Ross/myself are prepared to state whats not quite so good.
I am being cautious to read between the lines of the presentation material.

[mount teide] 07/8/2018 21:48

Chinese crude futures hit its 5% DAILY TRADING RANGE UPPER LIMIT today to US$78.37 (537.20 yuan) per barrel.


China’s Oil Futures Jump To Record High - OilPrice.com today

'China’s yuan-denominated crude oil futures contract for September delivery jumped to an all-time high on Tuesday by its daily limit, as speculators are eagerly trading the Chinese futures, while investors are uncertain where the most actively traded international benchmarks — Brent Crude and WTI Crude — are heading.

The Chinese oil futures, launched in March this year, have jumped as much as 5 percent so far in August and have been steadily gaining over the past two weeks.

Meanwhile, Brent Crude and WTI Crude are stuck in a tight range as market participants and traders try to make sense of the conflicting forces in the current oil market—the returning U.S. sanctions on Iran on the one hand, and fears that trade wars could curb demand growth, on the other hand.

On Tuesday, the Chinese crude futures contract for September jumped by its 5-percent daily limit compared to Monday’s settlement price, to US$78.37 (537.20 yuan) per barrel.

WTI Crude was up 1.10 percent at $69.24, and Brent Crude was trading up 1.26 at $74.13.

According to Bloomberg, there could be several reasons why the Chinese oil futures are soaring these days, unlike the two most active and important crude oil benchmarks. One is that a weaker yuan versus the US dollar could be enticing traders to buy the cheaper yuan-denominated Chinese futures, Bruce Xue, an analyst with Haitong Securities Co, told Bloomberg.

China’s reduction of U.S. crude oil imports amid the ongoing trade war raises speculation that the world’s biggest crude importer may see a shortage of cargoes, according to the analyst.

After months of subdued trading in the December 2019 futures contract, it has now become popular, and one of the reasons behind its appeal could be that Chinese oil traders and speculators prefer to trade futures on a quarterly instead of on a monthly basis, Xue told Bloomberg.'

[lord gnome] 07/8/2018 20:23

zho - thank you for that link.

MT - thank you for that confirmation of my guesswork.

We do indeed live in interesting times where TXP is concerned.

[brasso3] 07/8/2018 19:58

Q2 results end of next week?

[crooky1967] 07/8/2018 19:46

Rossannan, I am not convinced they will need to. Production should be at min 2300 bopd at year end and if oil prices stay where they are or a predictive rise then they should be ok with a netback of CND $40 a barrel. Let’s not forget they do not have to pay for all wells at the beginning of the year and new wells drilled will only add cash going forward and when they come in to production.

[crooky1967] 07/8/2018 19:46

Rossannan, I am not convinced they will need to. Production should be at min 2300 bopd at year end and if oil prices stay where they are or a predictive rise then they should be ok with a netback of CND $40 a barrel. Let’s not forget they do not have to pay for all wells at the beginning of the year and new wells drilled will only add cash going forward and when they come in to production.

[2prsimo] 07/8/2018 19:16

Think a few will really regret selling this early on in the story - I still reckon it's 50% undervalued on known production!!, but wdik.

[flyinghorse1] 07/8/2018 18:12

I have sold today after a nice rise of late. I may be proven wrong, but think TXP have the capacity to also surprise small shareholders with a placing/raise/flat-declining production, whilst spending.
I feel that the recent TXP presentation is quite rampy from TXP -a change in direction from past presentations, of slow and steady, especially the Ortoire block speculation.
At the end of the day they have had this license since 2014, its about to expire , has MWO and suddenly its marvelous.

The gas is deep in Carapal, yet the wells to be drilled under MWO are shallow (5000/6000ft) so low cost they will not be (think extra casing strings, pressure ramps, if gas extended testing to prove up compartment sizes).
Low risk -yes , but only because they are drilling to where hydrocarbons were found before-low cost -yes if shallow, but that wont be where the gas is.

Compartmentalization in gas fields is hard to determine (ie connectivity) so will require some testing /convincing of GIIP.

MT's constant ramping /regurgitation of selected nuggets has also worried me until I read post 2359 from him where he states his annoyances with out thinking the same can happen here.

Good luck , but in the absence of news and proper plans/spend for Ortoire I see it as high risk /reward for the gas and prefer to wait till a clearer picture of current production sustainability from the drills, and how they plan to tackle the deep gas is communicated.

[mount teide] 07/8/2018 17:52

LG

Did Cantor finish on the bid today?' Not only did they finish on the bid but repeatedly raised it into the close such was their desperation to flush out sellers.

'I suspect that it was Cantor's who came off the bid first thing to see if they could shake out any weak sellers.' It was indeed - no one got poor underestimating MM skulduggery and greed!

'Slightly less than successful I would suspect.' Cantor's behaviour today strongly supports such a view.

[lord gnome] 07/8/2018 17:44

Del - I have that 500k timed at 12:41:16 today, when the bid was 21p. I make that a sell with Cantors picking up the stock. Are you sure it was yesterday?

[che7win] 07/8/2018 17:44

Yes,
hold the shares tightly, they are very undervalued imho.

I had reentered TRIN after OPEC announcement myself and sold out in protest - they have lost trust. Traded it once since and made back 2/3rds of my losses, but this is much better value and growing faster.

[lord gnome] 07/8/2018 17:41

Did Cantor finish on the bid today? If so, the buying hasn't finished. I suspect that it was Cantors who came off the bid first thing to see if they could shake out any weak holders. Slightly less than successful I would suspect.

[captainfatcat] 07/8/2018 17:35

Nice to end the day on a high, the share price feels primed for another move up tomorrow.

[mount teide] 07/8/2018 17:30

del - i agree - the highly aggressive behaviour of Cantor yesterday and today, where they continually pushed up the bid in an attempt to flush out sellers suggests the appetite of whoever they are acting for is yet to be sated. At times today there was a 1p differential between Cantor and the next MM on the bid side of the book, so keen were they to accumulate stock.

That Cantor's strategy proved less than successful at generating much selling volume today, suggests another day of similar L2 action tomorrow.

[novicetrade68] 07/8/2018 17:27

How sneaky when they dropped the bid to 19p first thing in the morning.

[brasso3] 07/8/2018 17:25

A production update cannot be far away...

[marvelman] 07/8/2018 17:25

So it appears we have both lost out by sitting on our hands MT no matter what price we paid originally. Of course, if we had sold all our TRIN holdings at the time of the announcement (instead of sitting on our hands) we would have made even more and if we had sold all our holdings at 27p as (some) did then even more still. If...now there's a word to ponder in retrospect.

[deltrotter] 07/8/2018 17:18

500k buy from yesterday just been published. I thought there was someone keen on buying stock. Judging by today's action they haven't finished yet...

[mount teide] 07/8/2018 17:03

marvelman - for the record - i recall some TRIN shareholders(i suspect mostly short term traders) actually posting on the TRIN board that they had sold out of TRIN at circa 25.0p-27.5p after a good run and put the proceeds to work in TXP - it was one of many catalysts responsible for the recent re-rate of TXP which continues to trade at a significant valuation discount to it T&T peers.

I also posted, in protest at the hugely discounted TRIN placing, that i had sold down at an average of 17.0p most of the additional shares i purchased at an average of circa 21.5p in TRIN and put the proceeds to work in TXP at an average of 16.75p.

I am pleased to say that total transaction is now worth 21.75p in TRIN share price terms - it has recovered all my losses on those TRIN shares that were additional to my core TRIN holding - which although is circa 40% down as a result of sitting on my hands for three months, is still in profit and likely to do very well over the next 2-3 years.


Edit: Don't see why i should help a TRIN management that benefitted at our expense from a placing that at the time was some 80% of TXP's market cap - and all we as TRIN shareholders see for it is some 10 new wells before the end of 2019, when TXP could well be drilling up to 27, along with 4 ultra high impact exploration wells - to say i'm still smarting and less than impressed at what they did to me and many others who paid up to 27p for additional shares is an understatement.

AIMHO/DYOR