Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 22/6/2018 16:49

L2 - a good afternoon - went from 1 v 5 - 14.5p v 15.5p and closed out the day at its strongest point: 3 v 2 - 15.0p v 15.5p

[sleveen] 22/6/2018 16:32

and more to follow on Monday, other things being equal.

[futuredlighter] 22/6/2018 16:29

half a million shares bought today

thats what you call steady buying

[someuwin] 22/6/2018 16:13

£5k max buy online.

[deeppockets] 22/6/2018 15:52

And they do all their planning at $55 oil!

[awise355] 22/6/2018 15:48

This has to be primed for a considerable re-rate in the next couple of months, perfect scenario so let's hope the stock market in general holds up!

[phowdo] 22/6/2018 15:39

I added today. The drilling program will be transformational as long as oilprices hold up - results of OPEC meeting suggest they will.

[futuredlighter] 22/6/2018 15:35

that is steady buying today... a good few others have taken to the story here..

[mount teide] 22/6/2018 15:06

Oxford Economics this afternoon - 'Opec looks set to agree to raise crude oil output by 1m barrels a day. This would translate to an actual 0.6mb/day as not all countries can increase. This is as anticipated. Supports our bullish short-term view on oil. We see Brent at average $80 in H2, up from $71 in H1.

[futuredlighter] 22/6/2018 13:41

some nice buying today

[fardels bear] 22/6/2018 11:40

Tricsky Russians, eh?

[mount teide] 22/6/2018 10:56

Libya's National Oil Company has announced force majeure on crude oil loadings from its Ras Lanuf and Es Sider port terminals.

The NOC says the damage at its Ras Lanuf terminal is “catastrophic", after rebels took over control of the terminals and set three huge oil storage tanks on fire.

S&P Platts reports that the country’s oil production has been slashed from 950,000 bpd in May to less than half a million barrels in June.

Oil production in the Opec Nations of Venezuela, Libya, Syria, Angola and Iraq is certain to continue falling for months, possibly years, making the proposed increase in Opec production wanted by Saudia Arabia and Russia, likely at best to barely offset the rapidly falling output elsewhere across Opec.

The ageing infrastructure and lack of capital investment and maintenance over recent years at the oil production, storage and export faculties in many Opec Nations will make any turnaround of the current situation over the next few years extremely problematic at best.

[fardels bear] 22/6/2018 10:05

Back it and mainsail haul..

[futuredlighter] 22/6/2018 10:01

loving the jib of Touchstone

[mount teide] 21/6/2018 14:07

With potential production in the range of 2,250 - 2,500 bopd from existing assets at circa $35 a barrel netback by year end - this should very comfortably support a circa 30p+ share-price as we enter 2019.

Which is when things start to get really interesting:

* A largely self funding Production development programme of 20 wells each with 75-100bopd potential

* 4 ultra high impact exploration wells on the Ortoire block each with 2,000+bopd potential.

By next summer, if one, never mind more, of the "low risk" Ortoire wells come in around 2,000bopd the potential valuation upside will be enormous. (10+ bagger potential)



Apparently, the TXP team tasked with evaluating the prospect found a geologist from back in the day when much of the block and surrounding area was originally explored (by the majors of the day), who had lots of old(new) data and first hand knowledge that proved highly useful to the team.

Back then 2,000 bopd potential was considered very small beer by the majors with the average price of oil in the 60's/early 70's at circa $3.5 a barrel.
How times have changed!

[mount teide] 21/6/2018 11:36

According to Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs estimates that the OPEC+ group could only bring a maximum of 1.3 mb/d of output online over the next 12 months - OilPrice.com

'That would leave the oil market dangerously thin on spare capacity. “If we see any further disruptions in the market, OPEC will have used their supply bullets and find themselves short of spare capacity, setting the stage for much higher prices,” said Bastien Declercq, head of CSC Commodities.....

....The problem is that the disruptions seem to be multiplying. We have known for a while about the rapid declines in Venezuela, plus the market is already baking in some losses from Iran. But around 400,000 bpd just went offline in Libya because of militant attacks. The duration of the outage is still unknown, but it has yet to be priced into the market. If the disruption is sustained for a lengthy period of time, it would wipe out a significant portion of the increases that OPEC+ is considering.

Meanwhile, even as the additional supply satiates the market in the near-term, the reduction of spare capacity to historically low levels would only put more pressure on 2019 and beyond. “The reduction in spare capacity will trigger more volatility in oil prices,” Antoine Rostand, president of Paris-based oil data company Kayrros, told the Wall Street Journal. “Any disruptions such as Libya will push up spot prices immediately.”

The result could be a return to contango, in which near-term prices trade at a discount to longer-dated futures. “The lack of spare capacity could push oil into contango in the longer-term as contracts further out jump,” Richard Fullarton, founder of the hedge fund Matilda Capital Management Ltd., said in a Bloomberg interview. “Stronger demand and potentially higher costs of U.S. production may also support the curve.”

The Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Arabia was shopping a 500,000-bpd increase to fellow OPEC members this week - barely be enough to offset the reduction in output expected in Venezuela between now and the end of 2018 - although, a figure likely to be accepted by most of Opec, who other than Russia have no spare capacity.

[deeppockets] 20/6/2018 22:05

Saw CEO at presentation this evening. Still sees big valuation gap with competitors at current state. New drills next year make it a no brainer and if new Ortoire block delivers it's all bets on a buyout by a big boy (Shell etc)

[brasso3] 20/6/2018 21:38

From a Leo Koot (CERP CEO) interview today regarding T & T taxation:-

How does Columbus view Trinidad and Tobago’s Supplemental Petroleum Tax (SPT)?
When oil prices rise above USD 49.90 per barrel, SPT becomes payable. If you do sums, the SPT is like a cliff edge. It kicks in at USD 50 per barrel and you start paying 18% extra in tax. Only when oil prices get beyond USD 60 per barrel do oil companies start benefiting from the increased oil prices.

Industry and government have been in discussions in an attempt to revise the SPT structure, unfortunately, without a positive result to date. The present system gets in the way of growing businesses in Trinidad and reduces critical investments necessary to achieve the government’s ambitious goals. This tax destroys value, especially when the oil price hovers around the USD 50-60 per barrel “death zone,” where business’ after-tax revenue goes down.

Collectively, we need to come up with a different mechanism that gives government and industry a share of the revenue increase that allows businesses to reinvest in country.

An equally important issue is that we would encourage faster decision making and action by the government in all areas. For example, we have been waiting a number of years for the grant of a private petroleum licence over two of our assets. We are waiting for a VAT refund, and yet, we are asked to pay our taxes on time.
This is not unique. It creates all sorts of issues around valuations of businesses for future transactions, purchases, sales, M&A deals etc. The markets stall if there is no certainty of action and it can result in a lack of available capital to invest in the country.

[grannyboy] 20/6/2018 20:56

Just had the chance to watch the shareprophets video..and greatly impressed with Paul Baay's optimism, and confidence in what can be achieved, and IS being achieved..

There is no flannel or waffle..All matter of factly, and doing what they say they are going to do..

[euclid5] 20/6/2018 20:54

Walter W - how about i3e

[brasso3] 20/6/2018 20:19

Need to keep tucking these away while they are sub 20p.

There will be a big spike during exploration drilling in 2019 that is for sure. If they strike then expect at GKP style rise!

[walter walcarpets] 20/6/2018 19:59

"10 year drilling inventory and 208 wells" without having to apply for new licences!

[walter walcarpets] 20/6/2018 19:38

If anyone can find a lower risk and more compelling oiler on AIM, could you please point me towards them. DYOR etc