Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[brasso3] 12/6/2018 12:50

Cannot fathom how TXP can still have a market cap. that is half that of CERP.

I like CERP in the long term but TXP ticks all the boxes at present.

[mount teide] 12/6/2018 12:16

Ross - the assumption I've made which I consider to be reasonable - is that the historical data for well workers will continue to match the decline rate.

The reason for taking this view is four fold:

The annual well work over programme has historically produced results that matched the relatively slow decline rate across the various fields under production

The 20 well work-over programme in 2017 enabled the 4 new wells to be fully incremental.

The four 2017 wells have in the first 9-12 months of production generated a very slow rate of decline (they are still collectively averaging over 400 bopd)

There are 24 well work-overs scheduled for 2018 - 5 were completed in Q1/2018 - so management is slightly behind with the programme


Add that lot together and it suggests that if the performance of each of the 5 well work-overs to date average that achieved during 2017, then it is reasonable to assume that the overall production increase achieved since Q1/2018 is very likely to have been generated from the 3 new wells alone. Indeed, the highly bullish view would be that since the work-over rate is some 17% behind schedule to date then the estimated 107bopd per well increase since Q1/2018, could well underestimate the actual average performance of the three new wells.

[croasdalelfc] 12/6/2018 11:28

I dipped in with 40k - seems undervalued like Trin was before a partial rerate

[sleveen] 12/6/2018 11:05

Thanks for sharing MT.

[crooky1967] 12/6/2018 11:00

Great info MT, 14p a bargain.

Based on current oil, I make netback around $40.97

[mount teide] 12/6/2018 10:51

The benefit of underpromising and over delivering! Leo Koot take note!


Comparing the estimated current production data to data provided in the Q1/2018 Update strongly indicates the initial 3 wells currently on production of the 10 well 2018 production drilling programme are performing extremely well.

1,503 bopd - average for Q1/2018 (less 50bopd for 24 days from first well drilled)

1,543 bopd - average for Q1/2018 - including first well

1,669 bopd - average for April 2018

1,772 bopd - est prod in Mid May 2018

1,821 bopd - est prod early June 2018 (including 3 of 5 wells drilled to date)

Indicates an average 321 bopd production increase over Q1/2018 (without any contribution from the 2018 Drilling programme) - equivalent to an average 107 bopd per well drilled in 2018.

This production increase is in line with the performance achieved from the 4 well 2017 drilling programme and more than double the production growth achieved historically from the shallow plays.

Suggests that with 7 more wells due to contribute to production growth in 2018 - the management is extremely well positioned to increase production through the 2,000 bopd 2018 target well before year end.

A daily production figure in the range of 2,250 - 2,500 bopd could well be achieved by Q4 should the average performance of the remaining 7 wells in the 2018 drilling programme closely mirror the results of the initial 3 wells.


Q1/2018 - realized an operating netback of $33.53 per barrel

The strong cash flow generation in Q1/2018 will have accelerated further in Q2 from the double whammy effect of rising production and oil prices:

Brent average Prices
$66.75 - Q1/2018
$75.00 - Q2/2018 to date
$76.50 - Current Spot Price

Added another 100k @14p this morning @ 10.52 - yet to show.


AIMHO/DYOR

[someuwin] 12/6/2018 09:59

Malcy...

Touchstone Exploration

A production update from Touchstone this morning ahead of their AGM tomorrow. May averaged 1,728 b/d and the current field estimated production is 1,821b/d. Additional volumes have been realised from three of the five wells drilled in 2018 and the two final wells are expected to come onstream in the next thirty days.

News is good from the Trinidad operators at the moment and with the TXP CEO presenting tomorrow and an analysts visit into the bargain, as well as a highly professional Annual Report published by Columbus this morning, it would not surprise me if investors took another look at all the players in country.

[basem1] 12/6/2018 09:10

So 1 years current netback is equivalent to entire market cap. Very impressive/cheap

[novicetrade68] 12/6/2018 08:52

Very good of TXP to live stream their AGM, makes a difference to other companies with 8am bank holiday AGMs in Jersey.

[mr. t] 12/6/2018 08:07

Zengas, I expect net back close to $40 (Canadian) with Brent where it's at and current production.

[zengas] 12/6/2018 08:02

Production broken through 1800 bopd. 2 more wells to come on stream in next 30 days + 5 new wells to drill over the remainder of the year. The 2,000 bopd now ever closer.

1800 - 2,000 bopd at a net back of $25/b = $16.4m - $18.2m/yr.

No reason why they can't lift production by another 1,000 bopd next yr and $27m net back yr given the planned increased well programme at current oil price range.

[sleveen] 12/6/2018 07:45

Steady as she goes.

[jh420] 12/6/2018 07:37

Where do you think this will be q3?

[2prsimo] 12/6/2018 07:36

Ludicrously undervalued still

[captainfatcat] 12/6/2018 07:30

Steady progress 8-)

[brasso3] 12/6/2018 07:28

The net debt is going to be reducing significantly towards Q3/ Q4 this year.

With oil above $60/ barrel its a no brainer. It will get exciting when this breaches 16p resistance.

[grannyboy] 12/6/2018 07:25

Progressing nicely...doing what they say on the tin..

[brasso3] 12/6/2018 07:18

How much longer can the market ignore TXP?

Tempted to move some of my other investments over to here.

[someuwin] 12/6/2018 07:17

Excellent.

[walter walcarpets] 12/6/2018 07:14

Flying nicely under the radar but soon to pop its head above clouds.

[mr. t] 12/6/2018 07:09

Nice update"The drilling campaign continues to provide significant organic growth for the Company. With current field estimated production of 1,821 bbls/d Touchstone has grown production by 42% compared to the first quarter of 2017. With two wells coming on production in the next month and five more wells planned for 2018 the Company is well positioned to exceed our 2,000 bbls/day goal for this year."