Looks to be gaining traction, give us the breakout, GLA |
39073, I've said this a 100 times. I have a diversified portfolio and dont "need" to.
I hold for the potential of Casca assets only!!
I have also bought in spite of, not because of management here and, they are high up on my risk list as to reasons for not investing any further.
I think there are a lot of other similar investors to myself who also "may" be happy to invest further in the future.
I already have sold higher and "averaged" down for free, in fact selling when I was so "critical" of management (although I’ve been pretty consistent on that front I think?), as can be verified I'm sure, by my earlier posts on Discord and not "talking up" when selling.
All IMHO, dyor. |
Agree I've been quoted 26-27.5p.
Dummy sell at 26.75p. |
I know you wont like it but we've ticked up again :)
Level 2 now 7 v 2
The move up has to start from somewhere Dunders.... grab some more average down and make some money (IMO) |
Dunder's if your so unhappy with the management and decisions being made why stay invested, why not move on and make money elsewhere ? |
39071, what, so we end up 5p from multi year lows, great news and fantastic high caliber (sic spelling reference?) management lol!
All IMHO, dyor. |
Have a feeling we're going to hit the leader board tomorrow. :) |
Finally MM's now on the 30p x 2 of them :) |
Just ticked up level 2 now 3v3 expecting a decent day Thursdays are often favoured here for news so could news be less than 24 hours away !!! |
Yes, there comes the decision for TXP, if they truly think they can push for a renegotiation and even if the CB wells aren’t “quite” as lucrative will they still go with them and call their bluff so to speak in order to push the renegotiation. To try get the higher price on ortoire?
Who knows, as you say the Cas wells may still be superior and therefore they just stick with them, however if they are superior and they land a higher gas price for them as well then that really would be great. |
Ah ok so therefore the additional drilling will be paid from fcf from the ongoing Casca production, in which case thats fine, only the internal company capex allocation process, will be the determining factor, in well decisions. If these wells are so "sweet" it may actually be "better" and less risky to take the lower casca price profiles anyway, for the next two wells, so as to land more consistency.
They are potentially, if they live up to the hype, providing a good ROI anyway? |
DH- I suppose it depends what the 10 million is for? Is it for these two wells at B pad with the first being due to spud anytime now? As obviously they are going ahead regardless, I believe people are referring to H2 when they are planning to drill 2 Cas C wells (that these would be potentially swapped for CB?) That’s what I was thinking anyway, the B pad wells are being drilled regardless and I thought that’s what the 10 million is related to and therefore they are free to chose where they drill in H2 as the loan isn’t tied to that? I may be wrong but that was the way I thought it would work! |
39963 yes that as well tacked on to my much longer boring 39064!! |
39062, john I fully support your comments above but, what I also did want to emphasise, was that the $10mm funding for Casca has been determined based upon the relative returns of these wells. It isn't simply a case of swapping this over or increasing the scope of the loan to include CB wells without quite a bit of number crunching.
I have no idea of the workover upside / further drilling returns on the CB acreage that will will have the same (or better!) risk profile and potential returns, compared to Casca (at current prices), therefore, it may be, there isn't even an opportunity available to "reallocate" such capex from both a banking and internal benchmark and perspective anyway? So to be clear it certainly isn't such a simple swap over and "f you" to the government as people may think it is?!
IMHO, dyor. |
....although Heritage now has to cough up its 20% of costs, and thus can influence which wells are drilled. |
ACT - yes Cas is at fixed price for a couple more years unless renegotiated. The thoughts behind that are as dunder said about re allocating capital to higher gas priced drills like central block. Which will give them some leverage, while Trinidad is also desperate for more gas. Pay a higher price, we drill out Cas more, simply put. Obviously there is no guarantee on this and therefore personally not counting on it. However the point that was being made was the central block acquisition and the production from there that is at LNG pricing. We don’t know the split but to have access to this is only positive and POTENTIALLY gives them leverage with ortoire contract. |
if not posted before |
39059 lol, I think our BoD would struggle at asset level let alone country level at companies similar to BP, lol.
Admittedly there is / "should" be an initially better set up of (plug and play) controls and processes (plus SME's in place, depending upon corporate structure) at places like BP but, considering the mess previously crystallised here (operationally and "strategically"), it does make one wonder, whether team leaders at TXP would have lasted the length of this particular "project cycle"? All IMHO, dyor.
Edit, however hopefully we are finally finally turning this corner that seems to have been continuing for the last couple of years?!
Let's hope recent share price "strength" is based upon something tangible and we are not going to be disappointed with next RNS, as so often seems to be the case? |
Bp. remains out of sorts. Poor update.
they are sorely in need of a dynamic go ahead CEO.........Available for a modeat transfer fee?
red |
As I said, wishful thinking about Cascadura pricing is just not going to cut it: “over 50 percent of its forecasted petroleum and natural gas sales is expected to be derived from natural gas production governed by a fixed price contract through October 2027.” |
I think there is a theory "here" that they will re direct capital to CB and "force" the government to re negotiate the Casca revenue rates.
I have no idea what the upside wells profiles for CB wells or workovers are but personally wouldn't expect them to be same as Casca, so on the one hand we have capital allocated to potentially lower production @ higher price versus (for the next 2 years) higher production @ lower price?
The CB assets are only as good as their field and or (potential) satellite developments and I would have thought this more likely to influence any drilling decisions rather than a "ransom" type scenario, LOL.
But again wtfdik, all IMHO dyor!! |
Cascadura gas production is obviously not going to be sold at LNG pricing and is going to be the bulk of their gas production for some time to come. This is my point. What do they get for it currently? $2.50 per Mcf or thereabouts? Look at the Commodity price risk paragraph on page 17 of the most recent financial statements and you will see that for the foreseeable TXP are locked in to local gas pricing for the bulk of their gas production, just like I said ( “over 50 percent of its forecasted petroleum and natural gas sales is expected to be derived from natural gas production governed by a fixed price contract through October 2027”). It is your company - you should know this. |
As mentioned ... going going gone !!! ticked up :) now 1 v 4 |
Could be the last half hour to get the cheap stock in the UK before potential news !!
Level 2 improved again now 1 v 1 so could get another tick up before the close with the next buy |
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