Totalenergies Share Discussion Threads

[waldron] 28/4/2022 14:13

Summary and outlook



Russia's military aggression against Ukraine on February 24, 2022 and its consequences, have pushed oil prices to more than $100/b, exacerbating the upward trend seen since the second half of 2021 that stems from a lack of investment in hydrocarbons. These prices could remain at high levels if the mobilization of additional production capacity from OPEC countries and the growth of unconventional oil production in the United States fail to compensate for the anticipated loss of Russian crude oil production on the order of 2-3 Mb/d as well as the lower production from Russian refining. The effect could be mitigated by a drop in demand caused by the higher prices, the impact of the crisis and the pandemic lockdowns in China on global growth.



Gas prices have remained very high and volatile in Europe and Asia since the start of 2022, driven by global demand and the need for Europe to rebuild inventories. Futures markets indicate average gas prices in Europe and Asia in 2022 around $30/Mbtu. In this context and in line with its investment criteria, TotalEnergies is mobilizing additional investments to support short-term gas production in the North Sea.



Given the evolution of oil and gas prices in recent months and the lag effect on price formulas, TotalEnergies anticipates that its average LNG selling price should remain at a high level above $14/Mbtu in the second quarter of 2022.



In the second quarter, TotalEnergies will benefit from the increase in its production in Brazil from May 2022 with the start-up of Mero 1 and the entry into Atapu and Sépia (30 kb/d in the second quarter growing to 60 kb/d in the fourth quarter)



The Company maintains its capital discipline with net investments trending toward $15 billion in 2022, of which 25% will be in renewables and electricity.



The Company's priorities in terms of cash flow allocation are reaffirmed in this context of higher oil and gas prices: investing in profitable projects to implement the strategy to transform TotalEnergies into a sustainable multi-energy company, linking dividend growth to structural cash flow growth, maintaining a strong balance sheet and a long-term debt rating with a minimum "A" level by permanently anchoring gearing below 20%, and allocating a share of the surplus cash flow from high hydrocarbon prices to share buybacks.

[grupo] 28/4/2022 08:26

TotalEnergies SE on Thursday said that profit rose in the first quarter on soaring oil-and-gas prices but recorded a $4.1-billion impairment charge over a liquefied natural gas project under development in the Russian Arctic.

The French energy major said that quarterly net profit came in at $4.94 billion, up from $3.34 billion for the same period last year. On an adjusted basis, net profit was $8.98 billion, above a FactSet-compiled consensus that had the figure at $8.07 billion.

TotalEnergies' hydrocarbon production was 2.84 million barrels of oil equivalent a day in the quarter, down 1% on year, while sales increased to $68.61 billion from $43.74 billion for the year-earlier period.

Late on Wednesday, the oil major said the $4.1 billion writedown was tied to Arctic LNG 2 as the company will longer count on anticipated reserves from the project following Western sanctions against Russia.

The company said it is planning additional investments to support short-term gas production in the North Sea in the context of high and volatile gas prices across Europe and Asia. It also said it anticipates its average LNG selling price above $14/Mbtu in the second quarter.

The first interim dividend for 2022 was set at 69 European cents ($0.73), which represents a 5% increase on the previous year, TotalEnergies said. The company was authorized by the board to buyback up to $3 billion of its own shares in the first half of the year.



Write to Giulia Petroni at [e-mail]



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 28, 2022 03:07 ET (07:07 GMT)

[grupo] 28/4/2022 08:22

TotalEnergies SE's board of directors has decided not to include a proposed climate resolution in the agenda of the next annual shareholders' meeting, but said it has made new commitments to cut carbon emissions.

The French oil-and-gas major said late Wednesday that the resolution presented by a group of 11 shareholders "contravenes French legal rules setting the prerogatives of the Company's governance bodies."

Shareholders requested the company align its activities with the goals of the Paris Agreement and set reduction targets of direct or indirect greenhouse gas emissions, detailing the means to achieve them, TotalEnergies said.

The company said it has made new commitments ahead of its shareholders' meeting, including reduction targets for Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions--those under its operational control and those linked to the use of its products--in the short and medium terms, covering all activities.

These include the evolution of the energy mix and targeted production volumes, detailed investment plans, the potential contribution of captured GHG emissions to achieving reduction targets, and assessing the relevance of these targets in regards to the implementation of the Paris Agreement.

The new commitments will be detailed in the company's sustainability and climate report, TotalEnergies said.



Write to Giulia Petroni at [e-mail]



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 28, 2022 02:28 ET (06:28 GMT)

[grupo] 28/4/2022 08:19

TOTALENERGIES SE: TotalEnergies Announces the First 2022 Interim Dividend of EUR0.69/Share, an Increase of 5% Compared to 2021
28/04/2022 7:49am
UK Regulatory (RNS & others)

TIDMTTE



The Board of Directors of TotalEnergies SE (Paris:TTE) (LSE:TTE) (NYSE:TTE), meeting on April 27, 2022 under the chairmanship of Mr. Patrick Pouyanné, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, declared the distribution of the first 2022 interim dividend at EUR0.69/share, an increase of 5% from the interim dividends paid and the final dividend proposed for the 2021 financial year. This increase is in line with the shareholder return policy for the financial year 2022 as announced by the Board in February 2022 and confirmed to shareholders at the March 24, 2022 investor meeting.



This first interim dividend will be paid in cash exclusively, according to the following schedule:


Shares American Depositary Receipts
Ex-dividend date September 21, 2022 September 19, 2022
Payment date October 3, 2022 October 13, 2022


About TotalEnergies



TotalEnergies is a global multi-energy company that produces and markets energies: oil and biofuels, natural gas and green gases, renewables and electricity. Our 100,000 employees are committed to energy that is ever more affordable, cleaner, more reliable and accessible to as many people as possible. Active in more than 130 countries, TotalEnergies puts sustainable development in all its dimensions at the heart of its projects and operations to contribute to the well-being of people.

[grupo] 28/4/2022 08:11

TotalEnergies : Premier acompte sur dividende au titre de l'exercice 2022 de 0,69 euro par action
28/04/2022 | 08:26


(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

April 28, 2022 02:04 ET (06:04 GMT)

[misca2] 27/4/2022 21:44

April/28 2022
First Quarter 2022 Results

[sarkasm] 26/4/2022 10:51

TotalEnergies: The Russia Uncertainty In Upcoming Earnings
Apr. 26, 2022 3:29 AM ETTotalEnergies SE (TTE)2 Comments4 Likes
Summary

TotalEnergies is an oil and gas company with some Russian exposure. With Russian sanctions, there are some moving pieces that offer investors uncertainty.
TotalEnergies is about to report its Q1 earnings this Thursday. This is a discussion of what investors should think about going in.
As a value investor, given that TotalEnergies is one of only a very small handful of E&P companies that is in negative territory, this makes this investment interesting.
Investors should look beyond the politics and make a rational decision on whether the capital return program is enough to buy more of this company now?
Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Deep Value Returns. Learn More »

Exterior view of the headquarters of the oil company TotalEnergies, formerly known as Total

HJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images
Investment Thesis

TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) is an oil and gas company. Investors have become fearful of sanctions against Russia and the impact of Total's LNG assets in Yamal, northern Russia.

However, I argue that insight has now been thoroughly discounted in the share price already.

Consequently, besides Total's Russian exposure, which is now a known known, I estimate that Total's capital return program could reach around 9% to 12% in 2022.

This is not the best oil and gas stock to buy, but far from being a bad pick altogether.
Why TotalEnergies? Why Now?

TotalEnergies is a global multi-energy company. It's a large energy company with 4 segments highlighted in the chart below:
TotalEnergies Q4 2021 operating margins percentage

TotalEnergies Q4 2021 operating margins percentage

As you can see above, for Q4 2021, 70% of its operating profits came from its exploration and production segment. There is equity from affiliates that change the percentage makeup below its operating profit line. But I believe this provides more of a distraction in the analysis than it contributes.

The key takeaway here is just how meaningful its Exploration & Production segment is to its overall health and near-term prosperity.

And although oil and gas prices have been very volatile in the last several days, any guidance that TotalEnergies provides shareholders this Thursday on its dividend policy will be extremely insightful to investors.

What should investors be on the lookout for? Before answering that, clearly, we need to know how big an impact the Russian sanctions have had on Total's operations.

Presently, there's no denying that investors are being really nervous here.
Chart
Data by YCharts

As you can see above, since the Russian sanctions were enacted, Total's shares are down 14%.

This clearly seems to be an overreaction when you consider that Total's exposure to Russia accounts for approximately 5% of its cash flows.

However, one has to counter that with the fact that TotalEnergies is meaningfully levered which, when taken together with its Russian impact, brings into question Total's ability to increase its capital return program further.
Room For Increasing Its Dividend?

Before discussing Total's dividend, let's take a moment to appraise Total's balance sheet.
TotalEnergies Q4 2021 earnings

TotalEnergies Q4 2021 earnings

Even though there's been a massive improvement in leverage from last year, the fact remains that Total still carries $21 billion of net debt.

One may counter that this isn't that meaningful given that Total's net cash flows in 2021 were $15.8 billion and are expected to be meaningfully higher in 2022.

Could this mean that Total's dividend in 2022 could increase to $10 billion? A 22% increase compared with 2021? Perhaps. But I would contend that this is probably the best-case scenario given its Russian exposure.

On yet the other hand, Total will probably look to increase its share buyback program. But will that amount to more than $5 billion in 2022? Again, I believe that would be the best-case scenario.

Thus, altogether, investors could perhaps get 12% return via dividends and buybacks, if we were to make the generous assumption that Total would look to aggressively put a floor on its share price.

But I am inclined to believe that a more reasoned return of capital program would probably settle around 9%, which is still very much reasonable.
The Bottom Line

With oil prices remaining high, this company will continue to improve its balance sheet and pay out a dividend. That's the good news. But at the same time, while I'm super bullish on oil and gas, I'm uncertain of whether shares of TotalEnergies are that compelling.

You have a hit to profitability expected as TotalEnergies winds down its Russia exposure; you are also clearly exposed to WTI prices, which are far from guaranteed to remain high, particularly given China's COVID lockdown policies.

[waldron] 26/4/2022 07:05

World beater: TotalEnergies' vast Venus discovery in Namibia may be biggest ever deep-water field, sources

Brazil's Buzios - with 11.3 billion boe of recoverable reserves - tops the table of premier league deep-water finds, but that position now threatened


26 April 2022 1:15 GMT

[adrian j boris] 25/4/2022 10:45

TotalEnergies launched a solarized energy station in Tanzania
25-04-2022 10:17:26 | by: Marlene Mutimawase | hits: 446 | Tags: Tanzania
Transport

TotalEnergies Marketing Tanzania Limited officially launched its new identity and the first solarized service station, TotalEnergies Samora service station which makes TotalEnergies the first and only Oil Marketing Company in Tanzania with solarized service stations.

The event was graced by the Minister of Energy, Honorable January Makamba; in the presence of TotalEnergies Marketing & Services Vice President of East and Central Africa, Mr. Aluko Olagoke; the French ambassador to Tanzania, his excellence Nabil Hajlaoui; government officials, TotalEnergies Marketing Tanzania Limited management, esteemed customers and partners as well as TotalEnergies Marketing Tanzania Limited employees.

The company introduced the new identity in the market in May 2021, with the ambition to be a world – class player in the energy transition. This new name and new visual identity embody the course TotalEnergies has resolutely charted for itself: that of a broad energy company committed to produce and provide more affordable, reliable and clean energies to as many people as possible.

To meet the company’s ambition, TotalEnergies Marketing Tanzania Limited launched its first solarized service station in Dar es salaam Tanzania, TotalEnergies Samora service station, which gives users an opportunity to enjoy products and services powered by solar energy.

In his welcoming remarks the Managing Director of TotalEnergies Marketing Tanzania Ltd, Jean-Francois Schoepp introduced the course of the company’s transformation from Total to TotalEnergies and the new company’s ambition,

“It is with great honor and pride that we are here today to reveal our milestone and ambition as the first and only Oil Marketing Company in Tanzania to have solarized service stations which is in line with our climate ambition to have net zero carbon emission and a reflection of our transition from Total Tanzania Ltd to TotalEnergies Marketing Tanzania Ltd.” Said Jean-Francois Schoepp.

He further added that TotalEnergies Marketing Tanzania Limited ambition derived the commitment to have solarized service stations where to-date the company has 24 solarized stations in the country, 11 in the coastal region, 6 in the Southern highlands, 4 in the Northern highlands and 3 in the Lake zone.

The company intends to solarize up to 68 service stations by the end of 2022 as well as its industrial sites such as its Dar Es Salaam terminal and Lubricants Oil Blending Plant. With this target, the company expects a production of close to 900 kW of electricity on a full year.

TotalEnergies Marketing & Services Vice President of East and Central Africa, Mr. Aluko Olagoke addressed that “To achieve carbon neutrality, decarbonizing energy is not enough, as the producers and suppliers of energies, we need to responsibly meet the rising energy needs by being a responsible energy player and tackling the broader challenges associated with sustainable development.

The new identity is not only a change of name but rather the reality of what TotalEnergies stands for and new way of doing business. Hence, TotalEnergies Samora Service Station and many other solarized stations around the country, the customers can fuel, wash or service their vehicles or enjoy tea, coffee and cold drinks from our Bonjour shops powered by solar energy.”

The Minister of Energy of the United Republic of Tanzania, Honorable January Makamba greatly upheld the efforts of TotalEnergies commitment and ambition towards carbon neutrality and energy transition.

He addressed that, “The transformation of Total to TotalEnergies marks a tremendous development in the energy sector in the country as we have witnessed today the first solarized service station in Tanzania which reflects TotalEnergies’ commitment towards the environmental conservation and less carbon emissions, and even more progress in the energy sector. This vividly portrays TotalEnergies Marketing Tanzania Ltd as the leading innovative fuel company in Tanzania which has led the way towards solarization of service stations and we hope other oil companies will follow their ways.

He continued,“We are excited to witness the electricity production that will result from the solarization of TotalEnergies service stations and hope in the future that TotalEnergies together with the ministry of energy will facilitate the production and supply of more energies by utilizing the natural sources of energies that we have in the country such as wind, water, biomass and natural gas.”

The launch of TotalEnergies Marketing Tanzania Limited’s new identity and its first solarized service station imprints the company’s continuous commitment towards the development of Tanzania and ensuring that all Tanzanians get the best quality of products and services. With the company’s continuous investment in the country.

TotalEnergies Marketing Tanzania Limited has proven to be the number one fuel company, that is the market leader with the largest network of service stations, lubricants production, and supply as well as the provider of shops and services to their customers across the country.

www.totalenergies.co.tz

[maywillow] 20/4/2022 12:13

April/28 2022
First Quarter 2022 Results

[maywillow] 20/4/2022 08:02

Uganda oil project casts shadow over Total’s eco-friendly image


Dorothée Moisan for Floodlight
Tue 19 Apr 2022 09.00 BST
Last modified on Tue 19 Apr 2022 15.06 BST

The French oil and gas company TotalEnergies has worked to cultivate a green reputation with climate goals and plans to ramp up renewable power, but a massive east African oil project is casting a shadow over that messaging campaign.

Total plans to drill for oil in a richly biodiverse national park in Uganda and build a 900-mile pipeline, the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), which will flow through sensitive environments to a port in Tanzania for export.

Burning that oil could release the equivalent of 34m metric tonnes of carbon dioxide a year into the atmosphere, according to opponents of the project, who point out scientists have said the world needs to drastically decrease, not increase, emissions.

Total, France’s second largest company by revenue, rebranded in May 2021, renaming itself TotalEnergies and adopting a rainbow-themed logo. But its work in east Africa has become a rallying point for protesters, including during large climate marches in France last month.

[waldron] 19/4/2022 17:58

TotalEnergies and OMV Petrom win extension to explore in Black Sea offshore Bulgaria

Bulgaria's energy minister agrees to two-year extension on Block 1-21 Han Asparuh


19 April 2022 14:01 GMT

Updated 19 April 2022 14:01 GMT

By Rob Watts
in London

[waldron] 19/4/2022 16:15

TotalEnergies reports that its variable cost margin, refining Europe (refining margin), climbed to $46.3 per tonne in the first quarter of 2022, compared to $16.7 in the previous quarter and $5.3 a year earlier.

As a reminder, this margin is equal to the difference between the sales of refined products made by TotalEnergies' European refining and the purchases of crude oil with the associated variable costs, divided by the quantities refined in tonnes.

In addition, the energy group specifies that over the past quarter, the average price of a barrel of Brent came out at $ 102.2 per barrel ($/b), the average selling price of liquids at $ 90.1 / bbl, that of gas at $ 12.27 / Mbtu and that of LNG at $ 13.60 / Mbtu.

[waldron] 19/4/2022 16:12

Barclays confirmed its Overweight recommendation and its price target of €70 on TotalEnergies in the wake of the publication of the group's business indicators for the first quarter.


The broker raised its first-quarter net profit forecast by 6% to $8.2 billion due to a significantly higher-than-expected refining margin and sales of liquids and gas at slightly higher-than-expected prices.


According to the broker, these indicators could have a slightly positive impact on equities.

[maywillow] 19/4/2022 08:20

New neutral recommendation for JP Morgan on the stock.

Analyst Christyan Malek does not change his opinion.

The price target is changed downwards from EUR 58 to EUR 56.

[maywillow] 19/4/2022 08:09

ATFX Analysts Team ATFX Analysts Team
ATFX

Why is Brent crude more expensive than US crude?
ANALYSIS | 4/19/2022 4:17:10 AM GMT


Two core indicators measure the quality of crude oil.

One is API specific gravity, which measures the relationship between the density of oil and the density of pure water.

The higher the specific gravity, the lighter the oil. Conversely, when the specific gravity is low, the oil is considered heavy and low quality.

When the API specific gravity is between 10 and 22.3, it is considered a heavy oil, for example, crude oil from Dubai, Oman and Abu Dhabi.

When the API specific gravity is between 22.3 and 31.1, it is a medium oil.

The best crude oil is when the API specific gravity is above 31.1, Brent crude oil and US crude oil (New York crude oil) are both light oils, the former has an API gravity of 38, and the latter is 39.6.

Therefore, US crude oil is of higher quality than Brent crude oil.

Another indicator is the sulfur content.


Sulfur is a corrosive substance, and its high levels are not desired in energy products, such as coal and oil.


According to international standards, oil with a sulfur content below 0.5% is the best oil, and it's also referred to as sweet oil.

When the sulfur content is higher than 0.5%, it is known as sour oil because its quality is low and has more impurities.

The sulfur content of Brent crude oil is 0.37%, and the sulfur content of U.S. crude oil is 0.24%.

Obviously, in terms of sulfur content, U.S. crude oil wins again.

Therefore, the comprehensive quality of U.S. crude oil is higher than that of Brent crude oil.

However, the problem of crude oil quality is not the core reason Brent crude oil price is more expensive than U.S. crude oil.

Instead, some claim that shipping issues have contributed to higher Brent prices.

The full name of Brent crude oil is North Sea Brent crude oil, which means that the crude oil is produced in the United Kingdom’s North Sea region.

The full name of U.S. crude oil is West Texas light sweet crude oil.

It is named West Texas because Texas is the core area where Canadian oil and the Gulf of Mexico oil are found.

It is also close to U.S. crude oil inventories held in Koshineki, Oklahoma (mainly the Cushing area of Oklahoma state).

Compared to onshore oil, offshore oil has the advantage of lower transportation costs.

Therefore, using this logic, the transportation price of Brent crude oil should be lower than that of U.S. crude oil, and the corresponding price of Brent crude oil should be lower than that of U.S. crude oil.

However, this contradicts the current reality of higher Brent crude prices, so transportation issues are not the core reason for the price difference.

The core reason the price of U.S. crude oil is lower than that of Brent crude oil is that the maturity of U.S. shale oil development technology has led to a rapid influx of high-quality shale oil into the market, leading to a severe imbalance between supply and demand.

The API gravity and sulfur content of shale oil are higher than traditional U.S. crude oil.

Still, refineries in Texas were initially unable to adapt to such high-grade oil, so shale oil was often compared to oil products from Canada and Mexico, which are mixed and then refined.

Some people may ask: Why did shale oil not impact the price of Brent crude oil, but only the price of US crude oil?

The reason is that the US crude oil consumption area does not coincide with the Brent crude oil consumption area.

Crude oil is mainly transported via pipelines, mainly based on proximity, which influences the type of oil used in each country.

Brent crude oil is supplied chiefly to the Nordic region, while US crude oil is primarily supplied to the United States and the Americas.

Crude oil from the Middle East is mainly supplied to Asian countries, each with its territory.

If shale oil technology becomes more mature in the future and production levels rise to create excess oil, the U.S. may begin supplying oil to the rest of the world, overturning the current status quo, which has kept U.S. crude oil prices lower than Brent crude oil.

After all, the factors determining the price of commodities should also be the quality of crude oil from an economic standpoint.

Although shale oil technology continues to mature, the cost of extraction is much higher than that of traditional oil extraction methods.


When the crude oil market prices are low, many shale oil manufacturers tend to suspend production to avoid a situation known as "thanks for your hard work". The mainstream view is that most shale oil producers can make profits when crude oil prices are above $50/barrel.

When the price is below $30/barrel, most shale oil producers will choose to stop production.

The profitability of shale oil producers is another factor that forms an invisible suppressive effect on crude oil prices.


Therefore, traders who trade crude oil futures should pay attention to the recovery of shale oil production to avoid buying crude oil when production has ramped up, leading to lower prices.

[waldron] 16/4/2022 08:34

Weaknesses

The group is among the companies with the weakest growth prospects according to analysts' estimates.

The potential for growth in Net Earnings per Share (EPS) for the coming years seems limited according to analysts' current estimates.

The general opinion of the analyst consensus has deteriorated sharply over the past four months.

In the past, the group has often disappointed analysts by publishing activity figures below their expectations.


NOW REALLY LOOKING FORWARD TO RESULTS AT MONTHS END TO CONTRADICT THE ABOVE

[the grumpy old men] 13/4/2022 08:18

TotalEnergies and Eneos announce the creation of a joint venture to develop decentralized solar power generation for their B2B customers in several Asian countries (Japan, India, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, Cambodia, Singapore and Malaysia).

This joint venture (50/50) has the ambition to develop two gigawatts of decentralized solar capacity in the next five years. The transaction is expected to close in the second quarter of 2022, following approval by the relevant authorities.

TotalEnergies will leverage its expertise in this market and its global presence, and Eneos will use its expertise in renewables and its reputation, mainly in Japan, to reduce the costs of the proposed decentralized solutions.