Let's hope so or not as I'd still like to accumulate in the future. Not long now for the interim results. |
Think the big volume from the other day indicates the end if the seller. |
Mr, just to come back to your points. Nearly every tiling company offers free samples on delivery, and there are loads of online tiling companies about.
Hope you didn't invest in the mess that is Headlam. |
Potentially looks like another UK small cap manipulated lower by lots of small trades and then spikes in the week(s) after. |
Not overly worried about another competitor not offering anything that isn't already in the market. Margins are similar lower down for online players, too. I just think people have simplistic way of thinking. The market will remain competitive.
Headlam is a mess, and LW just constantly dilutes to grab market share through m&a while the directors sell their shares. I think Vic directors sold recently. Looks fully-priced to me. |
I'd be slightly worried about holding this one with Victorian Plumbing coming into this space. TPT has a structurally higher cost base, and more DIY is moving online. VIC also sends out free samples. No one thought that people wld buy bathroom fittings online. They do now. Tiles are an outlier and attractive to an online player because of the 50%+ gross margins.
My local builder is now forced to buy his timber online and deliver it to the site. The days of buying your stuff on the way to a job are going. The point is everything is changing.
I'd be interested in Headlam if it had a decent CEO and Tony Brewer, the previous CEO, was running a competitor business (and I'd buy Likeweise, if Zeus were not the broker).
I do hold VIC, though. |
Wj, but note the timing benefit for this year so it's basically 0. |
They have 86mm leases so net cash is 8mm. |
Yeah, agree with you there. There is some great value on offer, but something fishy seems to be going on.
I think you may be including leases? Best to remove them, and then we are basically at a 0 position, no net debt/cash, after you factor in the timing difference for the year end.
I think in the next few years it will be fine, but managing costs is the biggest risk this year with the inflation coming in. I know I bought in slight too early immediately after I did but still at a big discount. We have the interims at the start of April so should get a clearer picture of things then. I just got itchy fingers and I don't know what the market is going to do. It was either that or increase my other very large positions. This is by far my smallest position but might increase after the interims if it stays this cheap and the news is encouraging. |
never seen such miserable conditions for uk small caps - there seems to be 77.1 net debt which is sizable in relation to the market cap but it seems that in past years they had even more debt. I still am not sure about this one. |
I guess I should have waited to average down! Oh, well, timing isn't something I do.
Like other small-cap shares this does seem to get dragged down by lots of small trades of 2 shares and such. I made an enquiry to the FCA last week about this just out of interest as I don't know if it could be something legitimate or not. I know some commentators have warned investors about this. |
CMA nears approval for Topps Tiles’ acquisition of CTD Tiles.
Following an investigation amid competition concerns, the CMA said both groups had offered to divest tile stores in Aberdeen, Inverness, Edinburgh and Dorking |
Farrugia, welcome to the board! I bought in around 35p and averaging down. You are right: the government is certainly not helping.
Management have quantified the budget impact for this and next year and the next, and there is some other inflation for next year, but the update was encouraging. It seems like there is momentum, and I believe the consumer is a lot stronger than people think.
Maintaining the dividend will be hard without nudging up to a very small net debt position, but if momentum continues, they may manage it or simply allow it to rise slightly. We are talking a couple of million. They could cut it to 1.8-2.0 p and maintain a small net cash balance. This is a share you buy for the years ahead. It's so il-liquid that the price movements are almost meaningless at this point if you are holding for years.
If you are looking for small undervalued businesses, check out Card Factory. It's my biggest holding by a long, long way. Looks very strong. |
i'm a watcher at these levels. The business is interesting but the likes of Topps have plenty of overheads and the government didn't help with hiking of minimum living salaries and national insurance. Most of the UK small caps I follow are not doing well. |
CMA is not very excited . That's good. Now the bigger problem of making more profit.... |
Eyes on the prize tomorrow ;) |
Increased my holding by 20% today... why not :) |
Watch the big bump up on Feb 17th ;)
Gov pressure will likely get rhe CMA to call off the attack dogs...
"Topps Tiles PLC - Leicester, England-based tile retailer - The UK Competition & Markets Authority on Wednesday launches a merger inquiry into Topps Tiles’ acquisition of CTD Tiles. Topps Tiles bought the CTD Tiles brand, 30 stores, and two distribution sites out of administration in August for £9.0 million. Earlier this month, the CMA had invited comment on the deal, with a deadline of Wednesday. The regulator now has a deadline of February 17 to make a decision based on the phase 1 probe. This would be to end the inquiry or move it to phase 2." |
Interesting that the CEO pay is increasing and he's sold shares recently. Still a huge holding, mind. |
No, I disagree with that entirely. There are loads of successful companies selling tiles. This is highly-competitive. Tile Mountain are huge compared to VIC in tiles, and seeing as almost 100% of Topps customers visit the website before buying, then I would like to ask you the question: why do so few of them not shop online but start online and go into store?
Also, while the margin is good, when they let up on their huge marketing spend, the growth stopped. They are obviously trying to spend on the brand, but I'm sceptical about that working as well as they'd like. It's a good business. I won't deny that, but I doubt it has the capacity to dominate a highly-competitive market that will always have a significant physical segment. I don't think anyone can dominate this market, and that's a good thing in general.
Honestly, though, what's to stop someone else just bankrolling a savvy pay-per-click operation from a warehouse? They do it well, but it will always have lots of competitors. |
Tiles is as competitive as the rest of the market. Tpt has a nice gross margin that it needs to support a high cost base. VIC can have the same gross margin but much lower cost (it has one big DC and no branch network) and use that margin to go after the tile market. People were sceptical about bathroom and plumbing moving online and it has. There is little reason that a decent portion of the tiles market can’t move online. |
 Agreed, the growing competitors are coming from low-bases, and tiles are cyclical. It does seem like this is roughly the lower-part of the cycle, though.
Well, Topps have seen a minor tick up from last year ATM so let's see. Hehe, I said might! Who knows, I might get clobbered when the chancellor wants some more too :)
Vic is a good business and the CEO is very driven and clearly competent, but this is a competitive market, and I can't see his comment coming true and I think he knows it won't be happening in the next decade. But if it makes Topps wake up and get online rolling, then it'll be a good thing for the consumer as well as those who are shareholders.
If I were a shareholder here, I'd be emailing IR asking the board whether the new appointment for CEO will be focused around leveraging the brand online and explicitly mentioning the leaked ambition of VIC. Hey, given the low barriers online, I'd even suggest going into VICs product lines, as many will be doing soon, I believe. It's just product, logistics and pay-per-click mostly. |
That will have stirred some interest for sure....
Controversial!
One hour, 20 minutes and 9 seconds:
Stellar Asset Management have been given the tour of VIC - inside information....the legal variety
See the VIC thread for more comments |
Probably need to look more closely at Macro than specific competitors.
Economy is going backward - thanks to the budget - Bank rate cut (imo) unlikely to kick start the economy - Too many Reeves negatives -
While JZ may be doing some tiling work many others who would like too will (imo) be suffering from a cut in disposable income so property refurbishment likely to curtailed during the coming year and so negative to suppliers of kit.
(All imo & DYOR) |
Would love to see the source, too.
Tiles are competitive and the main online competitor is Tile Mountain, I believe, doing about 10 times the sales of VIC on tiles.
Might be buying some tiles this year so wouldn't mind a price-war but can't see Topps being in any trouble. They could be doing better online, though. If they get a good CEO in next, that could change quickly. |
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