Topps Tiles Share Discussion Threads

[buoycat] 28/7/2022 16:28

I've topped up here. The shares seem to be pricing in a disaster but with low pe and 8% yield and trading well at the moment I'm happy to take a gamble. They seem to be doing everything right.

[tole] 07/7/2022 06:24

https://citywire.com/funds-insider/news/expert-view-trainline-ncc-ashmore-topps-tiles-and-discoverie/Cheap Topps Tiles looking robust, says LiberumA strong quarterly from Topps Tiles (TPT) gives confidence for the full year, and enforces Liberum's view that the shares are cheap.Analyst Adam Tomlinson retained his 'buy' recommendation and target price of 110p on the stock, which closed down 0.8% at 39.9p on Wednesday. Sales rose over the quarter but over the most recent 11 weeks like-for-like sales dipped 0.9% on tough prior year comparisons, which Tomlinson said 'reflected the strength of the omni-channel proposition and continued robust demand'.'Combined with commercial – where sales were up 26% year-on-year – and good progress in the group's pure online channels, this gives confidence heading into fourth quarter,' he said'While near-term macro uncertainties persist, Topps continues to embed its market leading position and longer-term repair, maintenance, and improvement trends should continue to be supportive.'Tomlinson said the shares are 'cheap' on a current year 2022 price/earnings ratio of 7x, a free cashflow yield of 11%, and a dividend yield of 8%.

[wad collector] 01/7/2022 14:04

TU on Wed might clarify.

[farrugia] 30/6/2022 12:40

it is not just this - most uk shares charts are appearing like this.

[gamwah] 29/6/2022 15:39

I am still holding as trying to tell myself fundamentals are still the same and the with new online biz and 1 in 5 will it be this cheap next time this year!

[wad collector] 29/6/2022 08:41

It's a depressing looking chart, and if you look back 15 yrs , this is down 80% in absolute value, hate to think what the inflation corrected value is. Bale out and cut losses , or follow it down in the hope of better times? It is a mistake that most of us PIs make historically, but we live on hope I guess.

[mongi123] 23/6/2022 21:39

What is happening with this shares. Looks like it's going down the pan. I think they need new buyers to bring some excitement to their range. It's very out dated.

[makinbuks] 30/5/2022 11:15

Yes similar, and I share your analysis. This share seems very unloved. What we need is a bit of coverage and some momentum

[wad collector] 27/5/2022 08:22

Good to see the interim divi of 1p return. Looking at the figures and crudely doubling them for FY numbers, it seems that we are back to the sort of profits of 2017-20 , so a fairer share price ought to be the 60p-80p range of that period. Providing everything else is the same, which of course it isn't!
Still a yield of 5.8% and P/E of 9 seems underpriced now, though not enough to tempt me to add, still well underwater with av buying price of 110p.

[mongi123] 24/5/2022 09:06

Let's hope so

[makinbuks] 24/5/2022 08:50

Excellent results tempered with a cautious outlook and a hint at the strength of the comparison to come for the second half. Difficult market but this could return to 75p as it was in March 21

[sphere25] 05/4/2022 16:50

Wad collector,

There are experienced folk who have decades in the market saying it is one of the most difficult markets to traverse, so us mere mortals have to do our best to try and navigate through!

There have been some nice trading opportunities, but clearly everyone has their approach, and often it can be best to just sit on hands until calmer waters arrive.

I didn't buy TPT but ended up with a similar sector play in VIC today - talk about chancing the arm eh! Hopefully lob those tomorrow into a spike.

Overall, we are sort of muddling through in scenario two at the moment:

"2. Deterioration in Ukraine without the likes of oil (it looks like two thirds of Russian output can be covered in a best case scenario) spiking up toward $150-$200. That will mean continued higher levels of volatility, retest of lows and possible new lows depending on how long the conflict lasts. If it is just a hit to growth rather than an all out collapse, the market will clearly hold up better"

We have had the volatility, but the market has taken the positive view in holding up better in suggesting some form of growth scare, or even a very mild recession. It feels comparatively calm out there at the moment but who knows where we end up next!

If the indices just muddle about in a range i.e. have confidence in no nutty energy spike higher on the back of Russia, of a soft central bank landing and no big recession, then we can clearly assess each company on its own merits, but with so many factors at play, it isn't straightforward.

I guess the challenges of markets can be stimulating too. If we are learning along the way, there are positives to take.

All imo
DYOR

[wad collector] 31/3/2022 13:40

Sphere, it is interesting to view the market from a distance sometimes and good to see some conclusions, albeit acknowledging the uncertainties.
Cleverer investors than me have seen opportunities from the Ukraine effect though suspect most of us have just sat on hands and watched the markets fall. I have a long timescale (I hope!) so don't worry too much about this year's prices , but I suspect Topps is not going to bounce back fast unless it finds some new angle to a competitive sector. At least the product demand is still there , though inflationary pressures and falling incomes must at some point affect the DIY and the newbuild volumes. However I see the Nationwide house price index is up again today, so , surprisingly , the demand is not falling yet.

[km18] 11/3/2022 17:30

...from last year...

Topps Tiles issued a Q4 trading update this morning, headlined “Record year for sales; full year profits slightly ahead of forecasts.” That’s not a bad summary of the year gone by and confirms the business is rebounding healthily from COVID. Valuation is reasonable on a forward PE ratio of 10, PS is mid-range for the sector at 0.66. Its not a particularly high growth business, but generates profits and pays a dividend, current dividend yield nearly 5%. The balance sheet has reasonably high net debt at £98.9m, mostly capital lease obligations, but there is ample cash on the balance sheet at £31.9m and the company generates decent free cashflow on an annual basis. Retailing of tiles isn’t a particularly high growth industry, but TPT is a solid company and it delivers steady EPS and DPS. Valuation allows for decent upward rerating, TPT has traded on significantly higher multiples over the past 5 years. One to monitor, not overly exciting, but valuation makes it a little bit attractive....

...from WealthOracleAM

[sphere25] 11/3/2022 16:52

Ok Farrugia, phew!

Not a case of echo, echo and more echo!

It is doom and gloom at present. Things can change and markets do go up most of the time so we will all come out of this. The better times will follow with bearish trends reversing.

It is just very tough (beyond mainly commodity plays) right now to fight those trends, with so much uncertainty. The range of outcomes make it difficult too.

Let's hope more positive geopolitical headlines follow. We are still all very lucky really. Money comes and goes too. There are for more important things.

From a market viewpoint, all eyes on the headlines and commodities.

Until next week..

Have a good weekend.

[farrugia] 11/3/2022 14:46

i listen to what you say sphere - so no its not completely dead. I would agree with you on topp tiles but it seems a depression beckons.

[sphere25] 11/3/2022 13:59

These boards are dead, pretty sure noone minds me posting here off topic.

If you're watching the market moves, the market is muddling about with outcome 2 at the moment with oil and gas settling down. The market is hearing some slightly bullish noises (causing more of a technical oversold bounce in bearish trends) from Putin (more lies?) hoping to move to outcome 1.

However, it is all incredibly uncertain and outcome 3 cannot be ruled out. Goldman have come out and said the recession risk is 20-35%. Clearly noone knows for sure how this all works out, but this is where we are - a very intricate and potentially more dangerous market environment.

It is pants this, but folk like me aren't even a fraction of a spec in the bigger world so very much at the mercy of the powers that be. All that can be done is manage risk and play defence until better times come.

All imo
DYOR

[sphere25] 10/3/2022 11:30

Ordinarily, TPT spikes back higher on a bullish update like this. Clearly we are not in ordinary times though, and with only a handful of trades (about 37k on LSE and 6k off LSE) in the first three hours of trading, it shows the sentiment out there.

I would be surprised if people are piling into the markets here. There are of course those who have gone in heavy on this lurch down (or all in here as per some well known bods) and then there are those who are selling the spikes so it can be extremely divisive.

I am cautious here.

I can see how folk might nibble massive mark downs where multiples are close to (or already) single digits and pricing in alot of bad news (i.e even with further significant contraction in earnings, beyond a recession that is) but I don't see how you can go in heavy here. Naturally there are oversold technical bounces out there but they keep getting sold into.

We had a whopper yesterday (particularly in the DAX, which is unwinding a tad as I type) on hopes of a resolution, but every time positive comments come out from Russia, they are lies, lies and more lies. Hope that changes but that has been the theme.

Unless you know the mind of Putin, are expecting an immediate resolution to the war which causes an unwind of the recent substantial commodity spikes, it is going to be difficult for markets to find a bottom in the near term.

Some possible outcomes:

1. Near term positive resolution in Ukraine that causes a commodity unwind of recent moves - markets go roaring back higher with out performance in Europe as markets worry less about spiralling inflation and a recession. UK shares (e.g. reopen and cyclicals recover, energy to under perform and give back some of the recent gains) will recover the recent lurches down and we go back to worrying about central bank moves, a comparatively more muted form of inflation and supply chains. The way the market was moving before the war (major indices holding support, value outperforming and nutty multiple growth shares continuing to underperform) suggests we could have muddled through that.

2. Deterioration in Ukraine without the likes of oil (it looks like two thirds of Russian output can be covered in a best case scenario) spiking up toward $150-$200. That will mean continued higher levels of volatility, retest of lows and possible new lows depending on how long the conflict lasts. If it is just a hit to growth rather than an all out collapse, the market will clearly hold up better.

3. Deterioration in Ukraine with substantial oil sanctions that lead to further astronomical moves in the like of oil and gas. Markets will make new lows and the prospect of a recession will loom large. The bills and inflation out there are already worrysome. I don't see the consumer holding up with so much to worry about. We could then be in for some very heavy falls as the market prices in substantial deterioration in earnings.

That is a high level summary. Clearly going long the energy and resource play is a form of hedge right now in the hope that there is a resolution, but you have to be nimble in this market as a trader and move so much quicker. Things can change from minute to minute, you never know when game changing news could hit on either side.

All imo
DYOR

[mongi123] 08/2/2022 17:50

Time to dump.

[wad collector] 05/1/2022 15:43

Getoutofhere ramper.

[charlescharliesback] 05/1/2022 10:41

SYME is about to multibag

[wad collector] 05/1/2022 10:38

Couple of mentions in IC over the Bank Holidays citing yield. However they generally tip it regularly come rain come shine!

[wad collector] 30/11/2021 14:43

Ignoring 2020 (Wish we could!) adjusted 2021 profit is similar to 2019. So, all other things being equal, we should be looking at share price around the 2019 numbers. Which is a gross simplification of course , but if we believe the management statement about resilience and market share , this was either overpriced then , or a bit underpriced now.
Either way , still way off the peaks of 5 yrs ago, and even further off 15 yrs ago.