Tlou Energy Share Discussion Threads

[donkey40] 28/5/2018 17:59

I an not wrong. The RFP will be retendered and upon award Tlou will then negotiate that with BPC into a bankable PPA.
Whilst it is of course possible for Tlou to negotiate directly with BPC for their pilot project, I have very grave doubts BPC will play ball. I just cannot see them jumping the RFP queue - just my hunch. Why? Coz allowing a CBM player to connect to the grid is going to be more hard work than Tlou management are trying to make us believe - again just my hunch. All roads for CBM starting in Bots for power generation will flow after the initial RFP is awarded, PPA negotiated, banked and delivered. That will take quite some time!!
My view on this has not changed over the past 12 months - and when the time comes round - I will be telling you I said so !!
Multiple routes to market so suddenly are simply someone on the whacky gabacky.

[wheniamfree] 28/5/2018 17:01

Donkey actually you are wrong, the RFP will come before a PPA for that route however a direct PPA negotiated directly with BPC for example does not require an RFP.

[donkey40] 28/5/2018 16:37

You live in the theoretical world; the RFP is 100% needed to be awarded before the PPA will ever get signed. For the simple reason the PPA deals with power purchasing,
So the lenders will not commit until those terms are shown and negotiated.
If you don’t think that is fact, well good luck to you. And Tidd and the other promoters - coz you are all wrong !

[wheniamfree] 28/5/2018 08:27

Donkey It would be easier if you actually spoke to the people here as opposed to cross board.

The above is correct, the PPA or RFP is not needed to move in to development. For example if Tlou were to find a JV partner who was willing to earn in their rights to the project via a cash injection then they can proceed regardless.
A market already exists to sell power directly into, it may not be the favourable route but it certainly is possible to do so.

[donkey40] 28/5/2018 00:07

And Tidd:
“TD you focus on what you deem is important. For me, a government PPA or RFP is just one small piece of the puzzle and not even critical to downstream commercialisation.”

Now you stop being stupid. The Govt is a seriously BIG thing here; always was and will be. Jeez I am stunned you posted that !!

[donkey40] 28/5/2018 00:01

Stop being stupid. Go and read what you said and .....learn to write properly !!

[wheniamfree] 27/5/2018 22:07

Wind your neck in, that is not what I have suggested.

What I have stated is that if government did NOT want to progress a CBM industry and were NOT behind it as you keep claiming they would NOT have issued a production license.

Tlou have a production license already so how can you state the next step is to apply for one??

[donkey40] 27/5/2018 21:16

Absolute krap ! 100% rubbish. You have no grounds to make that linkage whatsoever.

The company has been exploring for however many years, is now looking to move from exploration to development company so making an application for a production licence is the next step. No doubt encouraged to make that application given they are shortlisted 1 of 2 in the RFP.

But to suggest as you are that the Production licence is in any way linked to the expected success of the RFP is ridiculous / bang out of order / entirely disappropriate / uneducated / and simply wrong !!!

[wheniamfree] 27/5/2018 19:41

Donkey if the government and the ministry weren’t supporting and were going to throw a real spanner in the works to prevent or delay CBM exploitation they simply would not have granted a production license.

That is the deciding factor in the whole equation.

[donkey40] 27/5/2018 19:29

Theoretically you are correct. Practically is a different matter. Bots good level rankings for corruption etc all help in terms of majors with money to look at the country and the market opportunity, but still IN MY OPINION the Govt have got to be seen to stand behind CBM in the country before all the theoretical options have ANY chance of playing out.
And I have very strong reasons for saying that.
Tlou could have done what you allude to in your last post in the years before the RFP. They didn’t. They chose instead to pursue the Govt support of the market option, same for Sekaname and Stratum and whoever is circling CBM in Bots. Now just becoz the RFP has been delayed - for Tlou management to quickly starting spinning we have multiple routes to market and multiple Offtake options being pursued is (my favourite word) disingenuous.
Dear TG - you might think that retail shareholders just want to make a buck and so you can spin us a good old jackanory. And get your mates like Tidd to grease the wheels and get everyone all excited and worked up. Now that we are reasonably well versed on what goes on in-country, maybe you will treat us all with more respect than hitherto shown to date.
And you can tell him a donkey said that !!

And you what - however much many of you don’t like to admit it - you damned well now know there is a lot of sense in what I am saying. Have been saying for quite some time ....

[wheniamfree] 27/5/2018 15:54

It’s the key to unlocking certain options of financing for development, not all. As per the above comment on TO, any major could form a joint venture or take over approach and circum navigate the lengthy paperwork whilst partnering or acquiring in order to exploit the reserves and resources.
The production permits are already granted, Tlou can commercialise therefore any support of the government for a PPA is irrelevant hence why they have the option to sell to others within the grid.

[donkey40] 27/5/2018 15:18

Actually for once I pretty much agree with Tidd:
“The market exists for electricity that much is clear, Tlous downstream optionality is for a gas to power solution. The gas in itself can be used for a variety of things but to have the abundance of said resource in a large quantity (and the only resource booked in country) is precisely where my focus is. The gas reserves are the inherent value, I’ve completed my research and I am more than comfortable with it especially at current value. PPA is just one small part of a large operation.”

Where we likely disagree is to my mind this PPA from Govt is the key to unlocking development of said abundant reserves. Without Govt support of this industry, forget CBM in Bots as other major Developers of gas will not take on the country/political risk. The Govt has to stand behind the CBM industry, support its nascent development so that everything else that can be done with gas downstream has a chance to be realised.
What is IN My OPINION is totally disingenuous of Tlou management is the way they tried to spin the delay, or deflect from the delay, by saying there are multiple other routes to market and multiple other offtakes we are pursuing. First part obviously true; second part well I cannot say they are not pursuing other options - no doubt they are - but to spin it the way they did was just downright damned cheeky of them.

Do they think all retail holders of this stock are so easily led or fooled??

[donkey40] 27/5/2018 15:10

They remain solid becoz no point selling and there are no buyers in Bots for them anyways.
Why is it every single stupid post by the cheerleader cannot interrogate the reality of Tlou’s lack of progress rather than laying blame everywhere else and saying its great, it’s gonna be great. We are the best yada yada...
HTG it is sickening to hear this constant rah rah rah in the extreme.

[wheniamfree] 27/5/2018 12:21

Post on LSE, sharing for others.

“Current exchange rate of PULA has BSE listing of Tlou trading at around 12p.



Ergo, African Alliance recent cornerstone investment of £2.4m has remained solid and all within the Botswana Pension Officers Fund for circa 6% of the company.



Core rig due on site imminently and should kick off a new round of drilling, if reserves continue to expand as expected I can’t help but think we are going to be in the sites of a major suitor either by some form of JV or perhaps TO? Tlou have many approvals that majors can bypass in terms of time and delays, a huge asset which is already at development stage and initial bookings of some 426BCF reserves with 3.3TCF contingent resources. All of the above certainly underpins the valuation of the company and more, plenty more value to be added here on existing progress even before further corninuation.”

[donkey40] 27/5/2018 00:20

Hey just curious Windo, how many share do you hold in Tlou? Care to share?

[wheniamfree] 26/5/2018 23:19

Oh the irony.

[donkey40] 26/5/2018 21:44

Mate - the only people regurgitating are you and your cheerleader mates. You have not changed your rhetoric in quite some time. All I am doing (everyone else gets it except you, thicko) is reminding you that nothing much has changed ....

You will be back just to make sure you get the last post in at end of the day ... You are a creature of habit. And happy repeating your same mistake, 10 times a day now for oh months on end now. Keep biting pal

[wheniamfree] 26/5/2018 08:37

Yawn.

Weekend donkey - no need to keep regurgitating the same dross, nobody is reading it fella.

[donkey40] 26/5/2018 00:03

Windy - it’s going to be a short chit chat when they come to my door.

For your sake, you stupid Richard, you better hope they don’t !!!!

[donkey40] 26/5/2018 00:02

Some thoughts from the other clever people:
“ it's a wait, but with very good odds on the upside”

“I agree that the wait is annoying, although given CBM is an entirely new industry in Botswana, it's not that unexpected (I guess it was hope more than anything that the process would go from start to finish without a few speed-bumps). Rhetoric from the BoD is unchanged - government highly supportive etc. etc”

“It could be a dead duck but I will see what happens by the end of June and then decide whether to sell up and move on from here. This really is a slow burn and the lack of news flow is very worrying indeed.”

Windbag - I posted all the above under my multiple alias. Make sure you tell that to FCA, Interpol, Office of the President as well please. Important that you do, coz your credibility is on the line here.

Buzz - your mate needs help. Back him up like a good jack ass.

What’s the song I am trying to remember - ah yes.... It’s all gone quiet over there...

Now rather than gloat, the question we should all be asking is Why !!

I don’t think the PR is working - multiple offtakes, multiple routes to market, connect to the grid, great BOD, done it twice before, supportive Govt, great partners (who have been a disaster), Govt need time to settle in, Tlou need time to settle in (after 9 years of trying), ... shall I go on?

FFS - are any of you awake and or listening yet ??!!

[donkey40] 25/5/2018 17:07

You really do seem to be somewhat infuatuated with me old boy. Scary..

[wheniamfree] 25/5/2018 15:36

And they all adore donkey lol.

That’s your narcissism shining through.

[donkey40] 25/5/2018 15:32

You really don’t have much under your bonnet, do you Windbag. Hopefully the last 2 weeks chipping at you highlights that to others.

[donkey40] 25/5/2018 15:25

Me of course. Every dissenting voice is me !!!

[wheniamfree] 25/5/2018 14:20

I wondered how long it would take for you to comment.

Who could JTD be I wonder.