Time Finance Share Discussion Threads

[lennonsalive] 25/1/2024 12:34

Your updates really add value, thank you

[lennonsalive] 25/1/2024 08:22

Positive, but some profit taking this morning

[hastings] 25/1/2024 08:03

Positive momentum continues and on track for at least in-line with previously upgraded numbers. Speaking with management again next week.

[ballymoss18] 25/1/2024 07:09

Looks good at first glance

[someuwin] 25/1/2024 07:03

25 January 2024

Time Finance plc

(the "Group" or the "Company")

INTERIM RESULTS FOR THE SIX MONTHSED 30 NOVEMBER 2023

Continued strong growth in Profits and Earnings Per Share

Lending book at record levels after ten consecutive quarters of growth

Time Finance plc, the AIM listed independent specialist finance provider, today announces its unaudited interim results for the six-months ended 30 November 2023 ("Results" or "Interims"). The Interims reflect continued strong demand from businesses across the UK for the range of alternative finance products offered by the Group.

Financial Highlights :

-- Own-Book lending origination up 29% to GBP47.3m during H1 2023/24 (H1 2022/23: GBP36.6m)
-- Gross lending-book up 24% to a record GBP188.6m as at 30 November 2023 (30 November 2022: GBP152.7m)

-- Revenue up 19% to GBP15.7m (H1 2022/23: GBP13.2m)
-- Profit before Tax ("PBT") up 35% to GBP2.7m (H1 2022/23: GBP2.0m)
-- Earnings Per Share up 35% to 2.33 pence per share (H1 2022/23: 1.73 pence per share)
-- Net deals in arrears remain stable at 6% of the lending book as at 30 November 2023 (30 November 2022: 6%)

-- Net Assets up 7% to GBP63.9m as at 30 November 2023 (30 November 2022: GBP59.7m)
-- Net Tangible Assets up 13% to GBP36.4m as at 30 November 2023 (30 November 2022: GBP32.1m)
-- Strong visibility of future earnings with unearned income up 26% to GBP23.9m as at 30 November 2023 (30 November 2022: GBP18.9m)

-- Continued positive trading momentum throughout December 2023 gives significant confidence that full year trading will be at least in line with Board expectations

Commenting on the Interim Results, Tanya Raynes, Non-Executive Chair, said:

"These results show that our focus on own-book lending continues to deliver a strong trading performance. This is particularly encouraging given the wider economic headwinds and demonstrates UK SMEs' robust demand for funding from a truly customer-focussed, multi-product provider of finance like ourselves. The strategic positioning of the Group within the market has enabled it to generate increasing levels of demand whilst also maintaining control of credit and spread risk. As a result, the Group is well positioned to deliver further growth and increased value to our shareholders. We look forward to being able to report on further progress at the year-end."

Investor Presentation

As announced on 19 December 2023, the Company will deliver a live presentation relating to these H1 2023/24 Interims via the Investor Meet Company platform at 1:00pm GMT today. Existing and potential shareholders can sign up to Investor Meet Company for free and add to meet Time Finance plc via: .

[smithie6] 22/1/2024 15:06

And good luck to TIME holders.

Time has moved ahead of MFX today.

MFX & illiquidity, yes, that's true.
Not even 1 MFX share traded so far today !! :-0

(But at times it is much more liquid, including a trade for £16k not long ago, last week ?? & a number of trades of ~£4k)

[nakedmolerat] 22/1/2024 12:38

seems to be more liquidity with TIME for me and i know TIME peaks/flows, hence in and out. never lost money with TIME

so it's a no brainer for me, i am not going to change

good luck wit MFX

[smithie6] 21/1/2024 11:37

I posted X days ago that I reckoned that the SME lending competitor to TIME, MFX, was a better investment & I gave numbers to support my claim.

Just for fun let's have a little competition, MFX versus TIME over the coming months, to the end of June '24.

Using mid prices.

MFX 19p
TIME 33.2p

[eeza] 19/1/2024 14:19

50k delayed sell - so looks like the LT seller still active.

[eeza] 19/1/2024 12:42

RNS only says 'below notification level' - so could be 2.999% left.

[nakedmolerat] 19/1/2024 12:26

they were the seller all along, good hope they have gone

[mortimer7] 19/1/2024 09:09

Hoping for a volume increase next week in the lead up to Thursdays results (25th).

[eeza] 18/1/2024 17:30

It may mean that they have gone to Zero, or to below 3% (in which case they may still be sellers).

[chester9] 18/1/2024 17:22

That should underpin the share price

[eeza] 18/1/2024 16:34

holdings RNS

Time Finance plc, the AIM listed independent specialist finance provide, announces that it was notified on 17 January 2024 that Aeternitas Imperium Privatstiftung no longer holds a notifiable interest in the Company.


They held 3,563,000 = 3.853%

[someuwin] 16/1/2024 10:16

Good buy in price here ahead of results next week.

[smithie6] 16/1/2024 09:35

Time vs MFX, part 2

MFX has very exciting growth at a subsidiary where it owns 50.1% & has an option to buy the rest to have 100%.
Whereas at TIME there is no such high growth in any part of TIME. While TIME is growing & is a good company.

Growth in profit at PA Ltd (Payment Assist Ltd).
(For growth in turnover see posts from yesterday)

PAT. For 100% of PA Ltd. MFX owns 50.1% & has an option to buy all of the rest.

2021 £27k loss
2022 £840k (data from PA Ltd accounts at Companies House )
2023 >=£2.4m ( estimate based on 2 X H1 2023, from MFX H1 accounts. Page 7, £612k "non controlling interests", imo for the 49.9% of PA Ltd not owned.
Is there any other significant minority interest, I can't think of any, most subsidiaries are 100% owned. Any gain due to 30% stake PIM ltd (an associate & not a subsidiary) is accounted as a gain/loss in assets for that 30%, & hence the profit from the 70% not owned is never included in the group accounts. Same for the tiny stake in Three Spires Insurance. For the fermenting vessels & other subsidiaries they are all 100% owned so no contribution to the "non- controlling assets" number).

>=2.9 times the PAT in 2022 !!
(£2400k/£840k= 2.9)

(In reality it should imo be higher because
- due to gearing the nett profit increases as the gross profit increases because various fixed costs do not increase at all or much with an increase in turnover & gross profit,. eg. directors' pay, audit cost, office lease cost.
- PA ltd grew turnover between 2022 2023 for H1 at 66% (see H1 presentation, via MFX website link) so one expects that there was some growth between H1 & H2, but to take a pessimistic/prudent view no growth is included in these estimates

X 2.9 !!!

SMTM !! :-))

----

The p/e rating/value of PA Ltd has just gone up imo, a lot !!
'if' the growth can keep happening in 2024 then the value of PA Ltd could surprise us all.
70% growth in lending in '23, if achieve 50% in 2024 then lending should be ~£210 million ! :-0
And the margin should be higher, as explained above. :-)

=====

If one is pessimistic & pencils in only a 50% profit growth for 2024 (noting that it should be >=290% for 2023) then a PAT of £3.6m should be possible.
A p/e of 15 would value that at £54 million.
More than double the current cap. value of MFX of £20m. (Sure MFX still has to pay for the other 1/2 of PA Ltd, for a max of £5million, but that is paid for for free by the summation of the MFX's share of the profit from PA Ltd).

But with an established fast growing company in a hot financial sector it would in reality not be for sale at all, at almost any price, imo.

----
Btw
For anyone trying to do calculations note that the PAT of 1/2 of PA Ltd is not the same as the contribution to the profit of MFX due to owning 1/2 of P.A Ltd.
Why ?
Because MFX makes a profit from lending money to PA Ltd at a wholesale price, which is MFX profit & "not" PA profit. (& MFX makes a profit margin on lending 100% of that money to PA Ltd even though it owns 1/2 of PA Ltd since MFX is understood to be the sole wholesale lender to PA Ltd)
;-)

[farnesbarnes] 16/1/2024 08:04

Stocko data is shocking throughout the site and the main reason I bailed on it years ago.

[smithie6] 15/1/2024 22:13

Texaspete2
Btw some of the Stockopedia data for MFX is wrong imo. So, I wouldn't rely solely on the data given by Stockopedia.
The EV is not £45m for example.

I make the EV=£3m because it has £17m of TNAs. See the last AR. (£20m cap value -£17m TNAs = £3m)

[texaspete2] 15/1/2024 20:16

Good volume today, accumulation here hopefully

[texaspete2] 15/1/2024 20:15

MFX could be overlooked as there don't appear to be any earnings forecast, it has a low stock rank on stockopedia, but TIME has a very high rank. Looking at the one year chart the market favours TIME. I do hold TIME so maybe I am biased, but if I've learnt one thing, the chart tells the story.

[smithie6] 15/1/2024 12:06

Valuation comparison of MFX Vs TIME

----

MFX surely/phps has a bigger nett interest margin because it pays out a lower % because most of its money comes from depositors at the bank which is part of MFX.

...does anyone agree with me that MFX is under priced wrt TIME ?

TIME. p/e. ~7-8, if my memory is correct
MFX. p/e. 4.5
(If the p/e for MFX went from 4.5 to just 6 that would be an increase of 33% wrt the current share price)

MFX has a loan book double the size that TIME has, yet TIME is valued at ~£31m vs only £20m for MFX !!

Looks illogical imo.

And MFX surely/phps has a bigger nett interest margin because it pays out a lower % because most of its money comes from depositors at the bank which is part of MFX.

...does anyone agree with me that MFX is under priced wrt TIME ?

TIME. p/e. ~7-8, if my memory is correct
MFX. p/e. 4.5
(If the p/e for MFX went from 4.5 to just 6 that would be an increase of 33% wrt the current share price)

Loanbook
Time £170 million (May '23)
MFX. £343 million (@ end June '23)

Loanbook per £ of cap. value
TIME. 170/31= 5.5
MFX. 343 m/ 20m = 17.2
MFX wins that ratio by X3 !!!!!!
------

PAT per £ of cap. value
TIME. £3.4m /£31m= 0.11
MFX. £3.8m (2 X H1)/20= 0.19

MFX is much cheaper. For £1 of shares at MFX one gets ~50% more PAT than at TIME.

----

Revenue
TIME. 27.6m
MFX 42.8m (2 X H1)

Revenue per £ of Cap. Value
TIME . 27.6/31= 0.89
MFX. 42.8/20= 2.14

MFX wins this ratio by miles, by >X2 !

---
Cost of funds
TIME
MFX. 3.4%

(A low cost of funds is of course good since it has a major impact on profit)

[lennonsalive] 12/1/2024 17:03

Thank you for clarifying the date.

[gswredland] 12/1/2024 15:04

Thanks Chester