Thg Share Discussion Threads

[srs8] 10/3/2024 13:23

Not Uk though is it, my point was clearly specific on the UK. Anyway not going to argue as each to own . Good luck on jet 2 and JS, but is there the need for the constant bashing here? Honestly I know you are better than the like of frankel and the nutter thg Rampers. Also I agree at most thg is worth around 100 (ebitda multiplier)

[ste2000] 10/3/2024 13:20

Yeah I’m worried. I think it’s time to load up

[ste2000] 10/3/2024 11:03

I think you are right. At no point did I say I used iOS but it all makes sense now.

Time to load up, Beauty must be flying.

I’m buying tomorrow.

[srs8] 10/3/2024 09:54

My final point would be thg guided in September that nutrition was being piloted FY at flat / 0% growth (as they looked to maximise ebitda)on Constant currency and they delivered this spot on. Suggests to me they can dial revenue up and down quite easily with targeted promo to the 85% repay customer base. Seems they are content to manage this customer base and make profit out of them rather than grow base through new customer acquisition (for now) and in fact get new customers through offline listings and marketing. Sensible in a time or inflated click through customer costs

[srs8] 10/3/2024 08:15

Toasty, when you are in factual mode, agree you don’t lie. I would appreciate a screen shot of Apple data pleas, thanks
I also don’t question your analysis at all of simailr web data (your analysis is v. good), I am just keen to understand accuracy of SW. especially give. The whole beauty industry q1 points I raised and Uk thg q4 growth, as I suggested before, SW just doesn’t stack up

[money mad] 10/3/2024 07:38

Exactly SRS8 also he is hunching everything on US IOS data which is totally unreliable since IOS update a few years ago! Android data is actually more reliable. On top of this out too markets are UK and Japan!

[money mad] 10/3/2024 07:35

Ste2000 this but was a good read - Given the substantial use of analytics services in academic research and their widespread use in the practitioner communities, there is a notable lack of research examining the accuracy of these services. Determining their accuracy is critical, given the extensive reliance on analytics numbers across many domains of research and practice [96]. However, due to the absence of academic studies in the area, several unanswered questions remain, including: How accurate are these analytics services? How do they compare with other analytics methods? Are these analytics tools better (or worse) at measuring specific analytics metrics than other methods? Are the reported metrics valid? These are essential questions that need addressing for critical evaluation of research findings and business decisions that rely on these services. Although the questions are conceptually straightforward, they are surprisingly difficult to evaluate in practice. This difficulty, especially in terms of data collection, may be a compounding factor for the dearth of academic research in the area.

[srs8] 10/3/2024 07:27

Building on above, the more I look into similarweb, the more doubts I have in how they can data harvest since q4 2033 and especially in 2024, since new cookie privacy laws

For online beauty, the top Uk 1-5 players (lookfantastic/ cult beauty / Sephora / space NK/ beauty bay) and even boots.com are showing huge declines in web traffic each month in q1 2024 vs SPLY

Are we really suggesting the entire Uk beauty sector has suddenly crashed! Knowing how it’s growing across online and offline in the same period (Uk retail sales Jan and Feb data by ONS and BRC, and Mastercard credit card) this makes the similarweb data validity come into question.

It just doesn’t stack up when you look further a field from a THG outlook

[srs8] 10/3/2024 03:50

Showing net debt as a circa leverage is the only way you can until audit officially signs of absolute amount

On similar web, my question (open for debate) is how was Uk beauty and Uk nutrition up +10% in q4 23 vs q4 22, when similar web data showed declines for nutrition, flat for LF and increase for cult beauty

My feel is thg are ‘managing̵7; revenue on their retail websites whilst pushing hard offline to focus on higher ebitda margins and now FCF positive vs higher revenue / higher website visitors. Q1 will be tough regardless due to currency so I believe the ebitda/ operating cash flow / FCF +ve narrative will continue for s1 and then move to topline growth in s2 (once margin is rebuilt to 7.5%+) and currency becomes less of a headwind

[ste2000] 09/3/2024 23:31

This share must be cheap

[ste2000] 09/3/2024 23:09

Yeah I see now you can’t trust anything.

Moulding says we are doing well.

Time to buy ?

[one_frankel] 09/3/2024 21:08

I think you're quite clearly deluded MoneyMad, global markets are never easy for relatively small growth foreign companies to exploit and they invariably lose monies for the benefit but when they can't even take advantage of their local markets which haven't even reached a point of saturation yet its all rather redundant and if you weren't already aware, partnerships have little value in prospering any company so please get with the bloody program hey!

[srs8] 09/3/2024 20:15

Finally there is a material disconnect on the data of similar web. Q4 Uk sales of nutrition and beauty both came in at +10%. Similarweb showed significant year on year decline on web traffic, suggesting changes in cookie and tracking has affected it as a source to use

[srs8] 09/3/2024 19:58

Similar web data does not look good
Semrush data looks fine
Apple app data is not available for sale

[srs8] 09/3/2024 19:52

Net debt is fine. It’s continuing ebitda at 114m. Minus 25m debt repayments of 156m loan minus 16m capital cost of Biossance minus costs of M&A of around 4m
Gets you to around same net debt as end of 2023

[ste2000] 09/3/2024 18:20

Thanks for your reply Money mad, I will attempt to be more clear here.

You stated that we can ignore web data because customers are being moved to app.

1. This is simply not true, the large majority of sales are still via web and regardless if we didn’t have app data it is easy to model an estimate based on quarterly reports.

2. We do have app data which is showing a declining engagement trend the last months. This makes sense, if you think about it MP is mainly repeating customers and therefore once you have the bulk of people that you can on the app your churn will be more than you can get signed up. Why? If you receive never ending push notifications on top of two emails a day would you keep using the app? No you wouldn’t so the idea that we can’t rely on web data because of app sales is a nonsense. App is a very imprtant high converting channel but one that we can measure and estimate. We pay another company for Apple data. The fact that you were not aware of this does not make it less true. Image was attached as proof.

Hedge funds also pay alternative data providers for basket values. They pay the credit companies for anonymised data. I haven’t looked into this in detail because of the initial cost that was talked about but it’s a scary world.

Perhaps an open mind is called for, only 5 weeks to go to see if my “guess” is true.

Ps isn’t it scary how app engagement has collapsed in Jan and feb on top of web data falling off a cliff. Not really surprising as it’s all correlated. If you keep sending spam with fake offers every day people switch off. Let’s hope for moulding sake that THG has a good March. It hasn’t started good. The first 5 days are trending very badly.

Sorry if a little aggressive but we can’t have rampers coming on talking huge growth numbers like 3.3 percent without backing it up :))))

[money mad] 09/3/2024 18:09

If this is a reply to my message then I'm really not sure what your point is. However I would be happy at a separation of the business or an offer or management but out come in as this would give a quick upside but over the years I think one thing I've started to realise is this is unlikely now and matt is focussed on getting back to the good times and powering through this macro blip.

[ste2000] 09/3/2024 17:53

Can’t wait to get some of these at this price.

[money mad] 09/3/2024 17:33

I think we are getting ahead of ourselves a little bit on company instability with partnerships. Lol. Best come back ever. This will only help brand awareness short term. Let's get the revenue up and scale markets more aggressively outside uk and Japan before we worry about partnerships causing issues

[money mad] 09/3/2024 17:28

STE2000STE20001. I said a lot of businesses lost growth . We were growing 50-100 percent YOY and then only grew 10 percent last year but back up to 50 percent this year. We already had the contracts last year so they were built in to the sales price and we aren't just social! Plus tech companies pay a good multiple. Me being successful is unrelated to THG though. So I have nothing to prove. Believe me or don't. 2. However my business and clients are. related to THG as we manage dtc ecom brands and growth in their marketing spends in 2024 is due to rebounding performance in the market which could infer the same at THG. 3. This is a global market estimate not THG specific . I agree we want to be aiming to grow above this number to win market share and things start to get interesting again. 4. 85 percent churn isn't scary. If it dropped below this would not be great but maintaining 85 percent is good. But agree would be good to identify why they are leaving to try and improve this number 5. In conclusion I agree we want higher that 3.3 percent growth. I do think you need to stop quoting web stats though as I repeat they moved a decent number of people into app and so you won't see the data from web. But out of interest why don't you post the monthly web traffic for last 14 months including Jan and Feb as you quite they look terrible but what are you comparing them too?

[ste2000] 09/3/2024 16:34

Load up load up

[one_frankel] 09/3/2024 15:55

Highly informing again Paddy!

...And yes trending Nutrition maybe on a trajectory of growth MoneyMad but in an incredibly crowded sector where heavy incentivising is the order of the day so how can it possibly be fruitful for THG in taking market share in future. ..In addition, revenue growth of just 3.3% in the beauty sector which as Paddy states is way below inflation when its already in such a highly competitive arena and you believe it will help in improving the company's bottom line but who are trying to kid here hey!

...Ohh and with partnerships increasing by the day, it will only lead to company instability, lack of autonomy and conflicts of interest between business partners especially when you have rather uncompromising goon at the helm but I'm honestly be_mused with your lack of any real understanding when you had your own digital agency supposedly!