The Mission Share Discussion Threads

[dogberry202000] 21/9/2007 13:53

Two chunky buys today! Someone has confidence in TMG.

[bbbb] 21/9/2007 09:44

thanks katsy, you are right!

[giant steps] 21/9/2007 09:44

bbbb makes no apology for inaccurate computation,

excluding interest bbbb computed credit facility 6 x $2m for the period June-Dec = $12m

reality was $2m for 3 months


Recall some other historical bbbb howlers (bbbb - 24 Feb'07 - 14:24 - 1797 of 2423)
"
75k out of approx 42m shares currently outstanding is about 1.8%, well below
the disclosable level.

I thought the dilution was 200, not 20.

but with numbers like these, does a factor of ten matter anyway?
"

[katsy] 21/9/2007 09:39

bbbb was a bullish holder back in the day. TMG have diluted him, kicked him, lied, unmet deadlines etc, etc etc. He's probably got more money in this than any of us. PSGM should now be cash positive again but until we hear this from the management I can only assume total costs are keeping apace with POG as they appear to have done in the 2years+ I've been here.

[bbbb] 21/9/2007 09:38

the credit line made available to psgm was of $2m for 3 months. in error (subsequently corrected) that was posted as per month. the difference between
input value error and subsequent calculation appears to continue to escape gs.

I am not and have never been short of tmg. I did, however, in good faith, rely
on the information put out by the company and find that lack of congruence with
that and the loosely thought and sometimes innacurate repetitive bullish non-sequiturs posted on the thread a source of possibly misleading ideas. including an impression of a poster with multiple names appearing to converse and agree with himself.

I make no apologies (other than for transcription errors, subsequently corrected) for putting the alternative view.

[dogberry202000] 21/9/2007 09:32

LOL! Nothing else to do!

[giant steps] 21/9/2007 09:30

db - perhaps former employee, tmg posting an amusing pursuit in retirement days !

[dogberry202000] 21/9/2007 09:25

Lord Knows, GS. But he is the bitterest, sourest poster that I've ever witnessed on any of these boards. Must admit though, he is consistent. But what is strangest of all is his obsession with TMG. If it's such a poorly placed company why is he here? Is it out of public service that he feels the need to do this? I thought socialism was going through a rough patch!

Looks like gold is on its way to $760.00 Another highly leveraged company, DROOY is making big gains after being a dreadful dog for years. Its management were pretty dire. The POG is making a difference with this company. BTW I own no shares in it and it is not a recommendation.

[giant steps] 21/9/2007 09:12

Let's be very clear, the bbbb computations had incorrect input values for
credit line calculations, over inflated by millions of dollars. Not a small error imo.

It is for this reason alone that bbbb calculations cannot be trusted, plus you
choose to ignore the escrow $4.5m

As for compound interest calculations, even a pure mathematician can cope.



Hey db, strange approach by bbbb.
What do you think his historical involvement with Thistle ? McLucas family

[dogberry202000] 21/9/2007 08:57

bbbb = short? No other likely explanation. You've done an excellent job, bbbb.

[bbbb] 21/9/2007 08:44

'readers should have little confidence in the bbbb computations'

may one conclude that gs is unfamiliar with the equation to calculate interest of 11.6% pa compounded every three months?

[simontemplar] 21/9/2007 08:36

Gold at record highs and TMG down two days on the run! As those over the pond might say: 'go figure!'.

[giant steps] 21/9/2007 08:28

readers should have little confidence in the bbbb computations

[bbbb] 21/9/2007 08:22

try looking back at post 675 where (edit) shows corrected figures.

[giant steps] 21/9/2007 08:10

bbbb - for the record and clarity to bb readers, what error have you made ?

[bbbb] 21/9/2007 08:05

'The credit line was set at $666K a month for 3 months to enable corporate activities'

the documentation suggests it was to provide 'working capital' to psgm.
as it seems to have been anticipated this would continue to be needed it could
also be viewed as making up shortfall of revenue over costs. that could be called funding of losses.

gs: you might need to distinguish between maths and innacuracy or error in transcribing figures. there is a difference.

[giant steps] 21/9/2007 07:53

CGA Mining A$0.93-0.94

CGA Value for Thistle = 40.985m * A$0.93 * 0.8641 = $32.94m

[giant steps] 20/9/2007 22:28

Poised for huge leverage PSGM Au/$/oz[1] Au/$/oz[2] ZARUSD AuZarusd[1] AuZarusd[2] Cash costs 615 625 7.16        4,403        4,475 Total costs 655 665 7.16        4,690        4,761 Market 733.35 7.03        5,155 Margin value           465           394 Margin % 9.91% 8.28% cash and total costs for 2007 are now forecast to be between $615 and $625 per ounce and $655 and $665 per ounce respectively, assuming an average exchange rate of 7.16 ZAR:US $ for 2007 (RNS 22nd August 2007)

[giant steps] 20/9/2007 22:12

bbbb - we know maths is not your strong point and you have demonstrated this
again; $2m a month is nonsense as you well know. The credit line was set at
$666K a month for 3 months to enable corporate activities, namely the sale
of PSGM.

[simontemplar] 20/9/2007 21:04

tim00 - 20 Sep'07 - 18:50 - 673 of 677

Sale of 50k at 6p not a good idea!


Unless someone got wind of a delisting.

[bbbb] 20/9/2007 20:18

but it is unlikely to be acruing interest compounded at a similar rate to the debt. and some of it might be needed to placate cga anyway, if there's a problem.

[tim00] 20/9/2007 20:01

I think GS is right, the $4.5 mn should be netted off the debt. It's not relevant whether it was included in the Masbate sale proceeds, just whether it gets paid over to TMG.

[bbbb] 20/9/2007 19:50

$58.5m @11.6%p.a. compounded every 3 months will be $61.942m by end december to which must be added (edit) the credit line to psgm similarly compounded. If that were $666k a month from june, the extra to be added would
be approx $4.175m by end december giving a total of $66.117m

the sale proceeds of psgm will need to be adjusted for gold in course of production and any provisions for redundancies and costs. That is sufficiently
wide a range of possibilities to make any prediction of a surplus impossible at
this stage.

the record so far of unmet targets gives every indication of further disappointment to come. although in theory a rising gold price makes delay of a
sale of psmg look a good idea, the compounding of debts in USD with proceeds of psgm in ZAR at a declining parity could make the net position much worse.

my understanding is that the $4.5m in escrow is already included in the amasbate sale proceeds and is a provision for adjustment.

[giant steps] 20/9/2007 18:55

Plus $4.5m escrow

[tim00] 20/9/2007 18:50

Debt at end-June was $58.5 mn, let's say $61 mn when PSGM is sold. Sale will realise $43 mn at current exchange rates (possibly much more in the long term). So then net debt of $18 mn. CGA shares currently worth $32 mn. So TMG net worth $14 mn, or £7 mn, or 15p per share. Still plenty of upside for CGA I reckon. Sale of 50k at 6p not a good idea!