The Artisanal Spirits Share Discussion Threads

[anley] 28/7/2023 08:32

and drift they have done down to just over 70p this morning on low turnover.

Here is another case where a quoted company calls in another broker who has promised to support the market price.......well look what happens - nothing.

What is needed - if you believe WHISKY is a hot investment is a slight change in the business plan and a reduction in stocks which will lower the interest bill.

On the marketing front someone will be watching what they can do if they were to run the business......a French company for example?

[anley] 20/7/2023 15:55

I did warn those that read this BB.

Who understands just what the TRUE value of this business is and in fact is it run that well?

For me its a close look at the subscription model and ask is that the route to growth - it seems not at the moment?

Too much staff and small distribution areas such as the London location in a down trodden area - needs a tie up with say a world wide hotel group who could develop exclusive areas in their hotels..........a world wide whisky and spirit company which would also be a distribution base.

Food for thought as the shares will continue to drift...........

[edmonda] 18/7/2023 07:33

"Investing in ultra-premium Scotch’s global growth"

Today’s Artisanal Spirits Company (ASC)’s FY2023 H1 trading update reported just over £10m in sales revenue compared with £9.9m a year earlier and included 7% growth in the second quarter. Importantly, there was a 9% increase in membership numbers. In addition, the statement reconfirmed the benefits of the company’s ultra-premium distilled spirits positioning, its focus on Scotch whisky, and the advantage of not only being international but also in control of its supply chain and distribution system. We leave our forecasts unchanged and maintain our opinion that fair value for the shares – almost a pure play on ultra-premium Scotch - is 150p.

While the ASC’s H1 sales growth was beneath our full year expectation of 14%, the company was lapping a particularly strong growth in the same period a year earlier when sales advanced by 25%. The company itself remains confident that full year market expectations for sales and adjusted EBITDA will be met. We leave our own forecasts unchanged at £24.7m and £1.3m respectively for these two measures.

We draw a positive read-across from Diageo PLC's investor presentation in Edinburgh on 1st June (“Delivering sustainable long-term growth – our vibrant Scotch portfolio.”) Diageo’s central investment messages focused on premium Scotch as a growth category and its value creating qualities relative to other distilled spirits categories. In our view ASC is already a clear beneficiary from these trends and opportunities.

We base our 150p fair value/share, which implies a 4.8x FY2023 EV/sales ratio, on a relative valuation comparison with other international distilled spirits companies and luxury providers.

Link to report:

[anley] 04/7/2023 17:51

A total of 723,000 shares have just been issued under the company OPTION plan.

That is another £700,000 of buys just to mop these up as well as adding whoever wishes to sell.

In a bear market then this overhang will last for some time based on current daily volumes.

Fair value for down to 90p.

[waldron] 28/6/2023 14:26

Chuckle

I tend to buy wifes paintings to prevent her selling them too cheaply

also i really like them

once she gets her new studio she hopefully will start painting again

Not sure what colour period shes into

already done the blue, grey and red

perhaps green and shabby chic

[anley] 26/5/2023 14:39

I agree DICODAVE that EBITDA has fooled ordinary investors for years.

I would say that the Board has to turn this business in to a profitable one showing some debt repayment etc.

Problem is that ART is all over the world - 300 new members here and there - and this does not make a difference.

150p could well be fair value but I have been there many years ago. What makes the shares 150p is real cash profit and they have the means to do this.

I am still a buyer but under 100p.

[disc0dave45] 24/5/2023 12:56

At their last prelims they gave consensus for adjusted EBITDA, why haven't they this time?. Still loss making but by how much?EBITDA is meaningless IMO.

[blueball] 23/4/2023 14:32

Syd Barretts art in chronological order..

[anley] 12/4/2023 15:16

Excellent progress and when you consider just how many prospects there are around the world to sign up then the world is their oyster.

[battlebus2] 09/4/2023 08:39

Nice update in the Mail on Sunday Midas column. Strong hold for those of us that own and a buy for new investors.

[anley] 30/3/2023 15:35

In come a good new broker and out goes one who did not have the clout - in my view.

GOOD MOVE>>>>>> and one day someone will come along and buy this business at more than 150p per share.

[edmonda] 29/3/2023 12:46

19% revenue growth, a 12% increase in membership numbers and a £1.0m favourable swing in adjusted EBITDA were key features of today’s FY2022 results statement. With the Masterton Bond facility fully operational and group trading having started well in the current year, ASC appears well placed to deliver medium term sustainable profitable growth. As a membership organization which boasts substantial invested facilities and valuable whisky stocks, we reiterate our 150p fair value for the shares.

This implies a 4.9x FY2023 EV/sales ratio, largely on a relative valuation when compared with leading listed distilled spirits companies and luxury goods providers. ASC is simultaneously exposed to both these categories given its emphasis on ultra-premium-and-above Scotch malt whiskies. Furthermore, the £493m updated notional retail value of the company’s maturing whisky stocks (mentioned above) is currently over 7 times today’s market capitalisation.

[18bt] 29/3/2023 07:22

Good progress. The value being created through the whisky stocks is unappreciated and will really start beginning to flow through in 2024

[anley] 28/2/2023 15:07

29 March the results............so stand by as there needs to be some alterations in marketing and production to increase cash flow.

To increase profile etc the shares need to get back to 112p the IPO price.

[anley] 24/1/2023 10:45

Thank you for your post.

Forget all the stuff about appointments and lets face the future:

1 There is no stock - this morning bid for 15000 @ 85p and offered 5000 @ 94.9p. That is no way to promote the price to say 150p

2 New shareholders will be a turn off when they see the Bid/Offer and there is a case of a small placing to get some more liquidity in to the market

I also am foxed by a recent TIMES article centered on the Chairman,,, this ex Coors man with all the distribution skills is not working full time - it would be interesting to know why.

[edmonda] 24/1/2023 07:38

Sales and membership growth drives momentum, new CEO appointment (new research report & audio summary from Equity Development:

Sales revenue for the year ended 31st December 2022 increased by approximately 20% from £18.2m in FY2021 and is expected to be slightly ahead of our £21.6m forecast when the full audited numbers are announced in March 2023. A 12% increase in global membership numbers to around 37,000 drove the business forward. While we leave FY2022 forecasts unchanged at this stage, our confidence in these numbers is enhanced by today’s announcement.

ASC announced that Andrew Dane, previously the company’s Executive Finance Director, will become CEO with immediate effect. He replaces David Ridley who had been Managing Director for six years. In our view, his appointment should be seen as endorsing the group’s growth strategy both for the Scotch Malt Whisky Society and ASC’s ambitions elsewhere in distilled spirits – e.g. J G Thomson & Co. An update regarding the Company’s American whiskey proposition will be made with full-year results.

The Masterton Bond Facility was the standout operational news in FY2022. It will provide production, cask storage, fulfilment and distribution of ASC's whisky and other spirit stock, and is expected to add around 200 basis points to group operating margins, probably as early as in FY2023. It became operational on time and on budget in FY2022 Q4. Other international expansion moves included an inaugural franchise agreement in South Korea and a new partnership with Drinks Alliance in Malaysia.

We base our 150p fair value/share for the Artisanal Spirits Company, which implies a 5.4x EV/sales ratio, largely on a relative valuation when compared with leading listed distilled spirits companies and luxury goods providers. ASC is simultaneously exposed to both these categories given its emphasis on ultra premium and above Scotch malt whiskies. Furthermore, the £455m notional value of the company’s maturing whisky stocks currently stands at around 7 times today’s market capitalisation.

[anley] 23/1/2023 17:10

and I had that today was going to be trading update news but NO!!!

[anley] 19/1/2023 16:31

and still no stock to be had..........

[anley] 11/1/2023 16:19

Indeed but I can never get for what I ask for.............

[battlebus2] 11/1/2023 14:20

Decent move today