Ted Baker Investors - TED

Ted Baker Investors - TED

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Stock Name Stock Symbol Market Stock Type
Ted Baker Plc TED London Ordinary Share
  Price Change Price Change % Stock Price Last Trade
-2.40 -2.16% 108.70 16:35:11
Open Price Low Price High Price Close Price Previous Close
116.80 108.40 116.80 108.70 111.10
more quote information »
Industry Sector
GENERAL RETAILERS

Top Investor Posts

DateSubject
16/7/2021
09:54
aringadingding: @Luddenden7 - What is that EBITDA forecast you are referring to, is it somewhere in these results sorry? https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/TED/final-results/15015323 @hawfinch - I guess I mixed up two issues there with regards to "confidence". It splits into: Confidence in investors in public markets... which as we all know see-saws with crowd behaviour. Confidence of the high street consumer. Here, those being furloughed have not received 100% of their usual income, so there is the shock of that reduction, plus the shock of the pandemic, plus not being able to access the high street and Ted by their own admission being historically a bit slow to get their online presence sorted (now catching up). So again, if Ted can navigate this case squeeze, which came at a difficult time for the business, then the future is pretty good for shareholders. Early signs are they can so at this point I think it's all about patience on the part of shareholders.
16/7/2021
07:35
aringadingding: The evidence of brand appreciation here is the historical revenue. Average of £600m in the 3 years from 2018-2020 inclusive. The yougov poll in a post above is also good evidence. Investors may have fallen out of love with the stock but that is very different to customers, very few of whom will have interest in stock market! Inventory issues impact cogs, sure, but not revenue. Stock control and margin mangement generally are challenges simply for management and systems to overcome. Ted now has expert financial management at the top. 30m of net income on revenue of 600m would be 5%. 30m / 195m voting rights is eps of 0.153 pounds or 15.3 pence Share price of 128p therefore 8.3x PE... so cheap if they survive the crisis (thanks to their cash) and get back to profitability (thanks to their customers who have saved money in the pandemic and their management). Surely this is what investing is all about! A normal PE of say 15x, and 30m net income, would be approx doubling of the share price. Seems like the fall in the last few weeks is related to wider market sentiment and not logic or fundamentals, unless lots of people know something i don't.
15/6/2021
15:58
hawfinch: Just gone through Ted’s results and I cannot say that I’m surprised. ‘impairment217; – 43m. I did say in post 2214 that impairment would be a worry. This clothing brand has way too many stores (still +400 if we subtract the partner stores in MEAA), but that’s not even the biggest worry for me if I was an investor. Sales and profit margins are. I swear, most of the time I’m on Ted’s website they’re constantly discounting and that’s a worry since it’s what got them in this mess in the first place (i.e., unwanted inventory). I honestly do not know where this company will go from here… They were late to the e-commerce party, late to the loungewear scene; they’ve just hired a new creative designer from top man who released his MIB range (which I think is average), and they’ve still got way too many stores. On top of that, their price range is bang in the middle with a target market aimed predominately at millennials. As a wealthy consumer do I bother trading down – not really as COVID hasn’t really impacted their wallets/purses. What about gen Z, would they trade up? Nah, can’t see it. There’s so much variety and such little difference between clothing ranges that's coupled with huge price competition. I think the clothing market has changed. Perhaps the market has shifted between the mid-players feet. It’s now either Very luxury... and… well everything else. From a financial perspective, I can’t see this firm doing another placement. There’s no need & for what? They have the cash. This company needs direction, but more importantly, a visionary.
14/6/2021
14:05
bookbroker: Problem for high street is this useless indecisive Govt. doing its best to destroy the confidence of the electorate. Johnson was elected because he had no competition, but it is time Covid was put to bed, and nightclubs re-opened, etc. We know that herd immunity is apparent, the numbers going down with these variants is totally insignificant. As for Ted., I’m not sure what analysts and investors thought, but to try and compare with the likes of Next is pointless. Ted. is a brand that is being revamped, is Osborne sharp enough I do not know, but their markets are quite different. It has survived thus far, but a suitor may see opportunity here.
25/3/2021
09:15
luddenden7: you sound like a very disgruntled investor who's clearly been caught in many wrong investments. Buy high, sell low? If you look beneath the surface there are many good quality, growth stocks in the UK, some industry leaders. Why is the UK (outside of the US) the largest exposure for Fundsmith if your comments are correct?
11/2/2021
08:59
luddenden7: Morgan Stanley, Price target £1.40 Ted Baker has issued its FYQ4 trading statement this morning. The trading figure is very weak, but this should not come as too much of a surprise to the market. However given the outlook commentary we would not be surprised to see FY 2021/22 PBT consensus forecasts fall following today. - Group revenues in FYQ4 were down 47% for the 13 weeks to the end of January. When Ted Baker updated the market in December, it reported group revenues down 37% for the 4 weeks to 28 November, and so this implies a material deterioration since then. Though, this should not be a surprise to investors given the various lockdowns that have been reimposed. Indeed Bloomberg consensus was anticipating revenues down 46% for the full year, broadly in-line with the full year revenue figure reported today. - Encouragingly Ted Baker had £67m of cash on its balance sheet at the end of January (versus £59m as of 28th November) and its £133m of bank facilities remain undrawn. Management has also commented that it expects to have "material liquidity headroom" ahead of the peak in its working capital cycle in Autumn of this year. - Ted Baker has not provided explicit PBT guidance today for FY 2020/21 or for FY 2021/22. It does cite, though, that it anticipates for Retail and Wholesale "an ongoing materially negative impact across both channels from store closures until end May 2021, followed by a phased recovery until the end of the first half". It also adds that it expects to see up to £5m of extra costs related to Brexit. According to Bloomberg, prior to today, consensus was anticipating PBT of -£62m in FY 2020/21 and £6m in FY 2021/22. We would not be surprised to see FY 2021/22 forecasts coming down materially following today given the commentary.
16/11/2020
13:14
nobilis: But in the economy that emerges from the ruins, there will be big winners, and investors are frenziedly trying to pick them.”
06/10/2020
09:06
lucicavi: A woman walks past a Superdry fashion store in Berlin, Germany Reasonably priced casual wear puts Superdry in the right place for the pandemic “These guys destroyed a quarter of a billion pounds of value for me and I’m determined to build it back up.â€� This is what, according to one fund manager, the founder of Superdry is in effect saying about his attempt to restore the firm’s fortunes after his predecessors made, again in the fund managerâ€͐2;s words, a “dog’s breakfast of itâ€�. Liad Meidar of Gatemore Capital Management, whose Special Opportunities fund has a stake in the fashion brand, said Julian Dunkerton, its founder, had seen the value of his Superdry shares fall by about £250m when its market value plummeted from £1.3bn to £90m under the previous management. This obviously gives Mr Dunkerton plenty of motivation to succeed – and it shows. “He fought to get back control of the company in April last year. There was lot of drama,â€ᦙ3; said Mr Meidar. “We think he is doing a lot of the right things to get the business back on track. “Heâ364;™s just as energetic and committed as before. He is a really incredible entrepreneur. He is renegotiating store leases, so fixed costs are falling significantly, and he is revamping the product line, breathing new life into it. And I think he’ll be around for a while.â€ᦙ3; He added that there was “nothing wrong with the businessâ€A533; now. “Going into the pandemic there were a lot of factors that put it in a unique position,â€5533; Mr Meidar added. “One was it had net cash, a position that it managed to maintain into lockdown. It had had too much inventory but stopped purchasing and managed to clear it, while the warehouses for online shopping were kept running.â€A533; He said Superdryâ€T82;s “reasonably priced casual wearâ€� put it “in the right placeâ€�; as far as the pandemic was concerned. “This brand can do really well in this environment,â€� he added. “It was already in turnaround mode going into Covid – it was on the front foot. “Now it is able to go further and get its cost structure right. For example, some shops could be closed but the firm could also open some new ones. Some landlords are offering variable-cost deals that in effect mean there is no risk for the tenant.â€ʏ33; He said Superdry charged “premium pricesâ€ᦙ3; but still offered good value for money. “You feel that you are getting a good deal, a good balance of quality and price.â€ᦙ3; The result is gross margins of about 64pc. Returns on capital tend to be in double digits, although they are depressed this year. “They could go into the high teens,â€ᦙ3; Mr Meidar said. He said profit numbers were currently “all muddledâ€ʏ33; because of changes to accounting standards but the less volatile and arguably more important free cash flow figure should be more than £60m by 2022. “A business with a market value of £110m is on course to produce £60m in cash in one year,â€�; he said. “That reflects the bombed-out share price, which has arisen partly because some investors ‘short sold’ retailers. “This is the type of opportunity we want. There are very few risk-reward stories like this out there.â€ᦙ3; Questor
10/9/2020
14:13
onjohn: 0 0 1 By Richard Evans 9 September 2020 • 5:00am A woman walks past a Superdry fashion store in Berlin, Germany Reasonably priced casual wear puts Superdry in the right place for the pandemic “These guys destroyed a quarter of a billion pounds of value for me and I’m determined to build it back up.” This is what, according to one fund manager, the founder of Superdry is in effect saying about his attempt to restore the firm’s fortunes after his predecessors made, again in the fund manager’s words, a “dog’s breakfast of it”. Liad Meidar of Gatemore Capital Management, whose Special Opportunities fund has a stake in the fashion brand, said Julian Dunkerton, its founder, had seen the value of his Superdry shares fall by about £250m when its market value plummeted from £1.3bn to £90m under the previous management. This obviously gives Mr Dunkerton plenty of motivation to succeed – and it shows. “He fought to get back control of the company in April last year. There was lot of drama,” said Mr Meidar. “We think he is doing a lot of the right things to get the business back on track. “He’s just as energetic and committed as before. He is a really incredible entrepreneur. He is renegotiating store leases, so fixed costs are falling significantly, and he is revamping the product line, breathing new life into it. And I think he’ll be around for a while.” He added that there was “nothing wrong with the business” now. “Going into the pandemic there were a lot of factors that put it in a unique position,” Mr Meidar added. “One was it had net cash, a position that it managed to maintain into lockdown. It had had too much inventory but stopped purchasing and managed to clear it, while the warehouses for online shopping were kept running.” He said Superdry’s “reasonably priced casual wear” put it “in the right place” as far as the pandemic was concerned. “This brand can do really well in this environment,” he added. “It was already in turnaround mode going into Covid – it was on the front foot. “Now it is able to go further and get its cost structure right. For example, some shops could be closed but the firm could also open some new ones. Some landlords are offering variable-cost deals that in effect mean there is no risk for the tenant.” He said Superdry charged “premium prices” but still offered good value for money. “You feel that you are getting a good deal, a good balance of quality and price.” The result is gross margins of about 64pc. Returns on capital tend to be in double digits, although they are depressed this year. “They could go into the high teens,” Mr Meidar said. He said profit numbers were currently “all muddled” because of changes to accounting standards but the less volatile and arguably more important free cash flow figure should be more than £60m by 2022. “A business with a market value of £110m is on course to produce £60m in cash in one year,” he said. “That reflects the bombed-out share price, which has arisen partly because some investors ‘short sold’ retailers. “This is the type of opportunity we want. There are very few risk-reward stories like this out there.” Questor
09/9/2020
15:06
onjohn: By Richard Evans 9 September 2020 • 5:00am A woman walks past a Superdry fashion store in Berlin, Germany Reasonably priced casual wear puts Superdry in the right place for the pandemic “These guys destroyed a quarter of a billion pounds of value for me and I’m determined to build it back up.” This is what, according to one fund manager, the founder of Superdry is in effect saying about his attempt to restore the firm’s fortunes after his predecessors made, again in the fund manager’s words, a “dog’s breakfast of it”. Liad Meidar of Gatemore Capital Management, whose Special Opportunities fund has a stake in the fashion brand, said Julian Dunkerton, its founder, had seen the value of his Superdry shares fall by about £250m when its market value plummeted from £1.3bn to £90m under the previous management. This obviously gives Mr Dunkerton plenty of motivation to succeed – and it shows. “He fought to get back control of the company in April last year. There was lot of drama,” said Mr Meidar. “We think he is doing a lot of the right things to get the business back on track. “He’s just as energetic and committed as before. He is a really incredible entrepreneur. He is renegotiating store leases, so fixed costs are falling significantly, and he is revamping the product line, breathing new life into it. And I think he’ll be around for a while.” He added that there was “nothing wrong with the business” now. “Going into the pandemic there were a lot of factors that put it in a unique position,” Mr Meidar added. “One was it had net cash, a position that it managed to maintain into lockdown. It had had too much inventory but stopped purchasing and managed to clear it, while the warehouses for online shopping were kept running.” He said Superdry’s “reasonably priced casual wear” put it “in the right place” as far as the pandemic was concerned. “This brand can do really well in this environment,” he added. “It was already in turnaround mode going into Covid – it was on the front foot. “Now it is able to go further and get its cost structure right. For example, some shops could be closed but the firm could also open some new ones. Some landlords are offering variable-cost deals that in effect mean there is no risk for the tenant.” He said Superdry charged “premium prices” but still offered good value for money. “You feel that you are getting a good deal, a good balance of quality and price.” The result is gross margins of about 64pc. Returns on capital tend to be in double digits, although they are depressed this year. “They could go into the high teens,” Mr Meidar said. He said profit numbers were currently “all muddled” because of changes to accounting standards but the less volatile and arguably more important free cash flow figure should be more than £60m by 2022. “A business with a market value of £110m is on course to produce £60m in cash in one year,” he said. “That reflects the bombed-out share price, which has arisen partly because some investors ‘short sold’ retailers. “This is the type of opportunity we want. There are very few risk-reward stories like this out there.” Questor says: buy Ticker: SDRY
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