Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[craftyale] 15/1/2024 21:11

Looks like a further purchase of 4+ million after hours. Could see yet another reduction in the short.

[rwlly1] 15/1/2024 20:43

This jump in house prices in January is asking prices, which is completely different to selling prices. I do know in my area which is south Cheshire the only houses that are selling without a deep discount, are the ones that are priced sensibly in the first place.

[sikhthetech] 15/1/2024 15:24

Crest issues a TU.
3rd profit warning in 6 months.

as predicted, sector newsflow continues to bite. Legacy issues could cost more than originally provisioned for whilst housing market demand also falls.


Crest Nicholson downgrades profit forecast for third time in six months

"The £780m-turnover firm has been hit by £13m in “exceptional” costs linked to a fire amid other issues with ”legacy sites”

Crest Nicholson has issued yet another profit warning, downgrading its profit forecast for a third time in a matter of months to £41m."

[sikhthetech] 15/1/2024 15:09

Rwlly

"If the demand is there, why not build a lot more, douse not make any sense missing out on a lot of profit if true."

Exactly. The demand has collapsed. GFC, pre-brexit, there was huge demand pre and post GFC as there was free movement of labour from EU, many buying property here. That freedom of labour no longer exists. Thousands of Ukrainians came here, living with host families (current households) and majority will return home once the war is over.

The govn want significantly more homes built than the HBs currently building. It's obvious HBs have reduced the number built due to lack of demand and are blaming planning as an excuse.

Is the CMA investigation still ongoing?

[cupra kid] 15/1/2024 13:01

Quite agree Fenners. If developers flood the market inevitably house prices may come down.

[fenners66] 15/1/2024 12:12

"rwlly1
15 Jan '24 - 11:55 - 17398 of 17399

If the demand is there, why not build a lot more, douse not make any sense missing out on a lot of profit if true."


You do understand the relationship between price and supply and demand ?
You "manage" supply to ensure that you gain, not just this year , but every year.

[fenners66] 15/1/2024 12:10

From the DM:-

"House prices will rise 3 per cent this year, according to a major property firm.

Estate agent Knight Frank had previously predicted a 4 per cent fall by the end of 2024, but has flipped its forecast into positive territory on the back of falling inflation.

That prediction was made only three months ago, in October 2023 - but the agency said a significant drop in mortgage rates since then had changed its outlook."

If only they read what the non-trolls were saying on here they could have got the prediction for last year correct...

[rwlly1] 15/1/2024 11:55

If the demand is there, why not build a lot more, douse not make any sense missing out on a lot of profit if true.

[fenners66] 15/1/2024 10:59

a quick look at amaretto's posting history tells you a lot.

rwlly1 ... housing market already flown in the past ?

People have been saying that for as long as I can remember

But this time its different...

because we now have about 1 million more people to home each Year in this country , with the largest house builders only building about 80,000 a year between them.

Its supply and demand.

[cupra kid] 15/1/2024 09:45

I know on a couple of Barratt sites they've said just to complete what's in build and not to release anything else until further notice. I've seen it lots of times though and as quickly as the bosses are making these decisions, they're flicking their fingers and it's full steam ahead again. It's all about being cautious and having a sensible approach.

[tlobs2] 15/1/2024 08:28

amaretto1 LOL, just LOL. One of the worst posts so far this year.

Onwards and upwards :-)

[j4ckthehat] 15/1/2024 02:02

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-15/uk-housing-market-heats-up-with-a-strong-jump-in-asking-prices#:~:text=Rightmove%20said%20that%20buyer%20demand,%25%20last%20summer%2C%20Rightmove%20said.

[jugears] 14/1/2024 11:35

rwilly, You underestimate the need for new houses & the amount of buyers out there waiting for rates to drop which Imo will be around March, I think that like sick you grossly under estimate how much disposable income people still have, Imo a lot of people have held off buying houses whilst there was uncertainty of where rates would peak, but as we all now know they have I would expectant buyers to steadily return, Its not about rates being high its about people getting used to them being high.I expect to see sales recover as the year goes buy but will the hb's be able to ramp up production enough to meet a rising demand????

[rwlly1] 14/1/2024 10:56

JUG I do not agree with you about the housing market flying. Reason being it has already flown in the past, there is no room for it to fly again. that is of course dependant on inflation being controlled.

[jugears] 13/1/2024 18:23

Amartito, that's strange, we have a large quarry near us that is very busy delivering to building sites, before I retired from my own company in December there certainly seemed plenty of activity on the TW, Bdev & PSN sites I visited weekly.

[jugears] 13/1/2024 18:17

sikh, Tw made a profit & started paying a dividend 2 years after the financial crisis,oh and a special in year 3,In the two years following the GFC they were substantially reducing debt, I have little doubt that this will be one of the best performing shares in the ft 100 over the next 10 years I also have little doubt that once interest rates fall the housing market will fly. I think I would be more worried about TLY if I were you!

[amaretto1] 13/1/2024 16:33

Our family own a quarry It services majority of house builders in the area Muck away aggregates etc The housing market has virtually stopped Not selling Finishing the started ones Persimmon have several sites Don't listen to the market hype It's not happening Rates need to be slashed The inflation has made the situation we're profit has evaporated

[sikhthetech] 13/1/2024 15:19

Jugears,

"I see we have a typical market over reaction across the board today, just because the yanks can't control inflation"

The share price started to fall in the morning. The share price was down before the US inflation rate was announced.

The continued challenges and uncertain outlook as mentioned in #17384.


Weekly sales rate falling.
Order book down 8.7%.
Net cash declined, 21%, £180m to £678m.

Previous times, it's taken years for the market to recover. They need the market to recover quickly or conserve cash, sell assets, cut dividend. If there's another major drain, like Ground Rent scandal or fire safety improvements, they could find themselves using more cash than they expected.

[tlobs2] 12/1/2024 08:25

Morning all. Glad I missed the action yesterday. Ahem.

Anyway, looking pretty good across my entire portfolio this morning so we are back on track.

When will MW and Qube have to start their bulk buying again. LOL what were they thinking.

[craftyale] 12/1/2024 07:00

Marshall Wace further reduced their short on Jan 10th.

[fenners66] 11/1/2024 19:57

Has the troll stopped posting their regurgitation about the share price?

Since the share price has smashed through 130 (like some said it would ) I guess they have shut up about that.

[jugears] 11/1/2024 17:33

Yawn!, I see we have a typical market over reaction across the board today, just because the yanks can't control inflation but then it never was going to fall in a straight line was it!

[sikhthetech] 11/1/2024 16:37

The figures from the TU says it all

Weekly sales rate falling.
Order book down 8.7%.
Net cash declined, 21%, £180m to £678m.

Previous times, it's taken years for the market to recover. They need the market to recover quickly or conserve cash, sell assets, cut dividend. If there's another major drain, like Ground Rent scandal or fire safety improvements, they could find themselves using more cash than they expected.





Taylor Wimpey's full-year average weekly private sales rate fell from 0.68 to 0.62 as a result of "difficult market conditions".

The group completed 10,848 new homes over 2023, down from 14,154 in the prior year. Average private selling prices in the UK rose by 5.1% to £370,000.

Taylor Wimpey's order book slipped 8.7% lower to £1.8bn. The group's net cash position fell from £864mn to £678mn.

Full-year operating profit is expected to be at the top end of the group's £440-£470mn guidance range.

Heading into the new year, the market remains uncertain but Taylor Wimpey expects recent mortgage rate reductions to improve affordability for buyers. Build cost inflation is set to run at around 4% in the first half.

[sikhthetech] 11/1/2024 15:18

Jugears

If housing market is doing so well then why have HB reduced the number of builds?
Why not build more to satisfy the demand you claim exists?


A third pay cash so the vast majority, 2/3rds don't!

Housing market needs FTB to have a properly functioning housing market.