Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[craftyale] 09/4/2020 14:56

These shares almost touched 100p due to CV19. The market priced worst case at that point. The shares are now 40 percent up from that low. Theres far too much opinion here, and frankly if people think TW. is uninvestable the mind boggles........When I watched 9/11 unfold I learned a valuable lesson......when events are at their worst invest heavily. Nothing else matters and certainly not the inane repeated hysteria of fear from our resident idiots. Back in at 115 and very happy.

[jugears] 09/4/2020 14:44

All ifs & buts & maybe

[1carus] 09/4/2020 14:33

Keeps going up mind!

[wfl1970] 09/4/2020 14:19

6.6m unemployed claims in the US in the last week...
Never been seen before.

Much still to unfold here as well imv...

[sikhthetech] 09/4/2020 14:15

The current outlook is nothing like 2008/2009 for housebuilders.

For a start, there were still thousands of buy to let investors in 2008-9, to prop up the housing market. There were still foreign investors with millions to invest in property. With businesses going to the wall, I think a lot of rich foreign investors will shy away from the UK property market?


Btl investors were already selling pre-Covid19 due to several changes by the Govn, making btl less attractive and even more new measures came into effect this week.

I think Covid-19 will be the last straw for many btl investors who were just hanging on.

There is also the problem of the estate agents/conveyancing/surveyors. I think a lot of estate agents will go to the wall during a severe downturn in the property market.

Millions of people are likely to lose their jobs. The current package to help workers/mortgage payers is only for a 3 month period. Many workers are likely to feel uneasy even when the lockdown is lifted, so it's unlikely they will be looking at moving home.

Then there's the issue of securing a mortgage, especially if they stick to 60% LTV.

It's only the start and the consequences are not likely to be known for a few months.. It's not just about housebuilders resuming their work at building sites.

[1carus] 09/4/2020 13:41

Jug... thanks for reminding me.

[1carus] 09/4/2020 13:40

GP... good for you in buying into these.

[1carus] 09/4/2020 13:38

Swb2, there is a big difference between major infrastructure projects, including large single constructions, and house building. There may be a slow down in new house purchases, and that will depend on how we all come out of this. TW are positioned kinda mid market and I would expect they have the ability to switch to building slightly smaller properties than their average. ( which they build on pretty much every site anyway) I dont think house building is really included in 'Construction' where as, cross rail, HS2 and large buildings are. I could be wrong. I just wouldn't group TW with Balfour Beatty for example.

[dr_smith] 09/4/2020 13:32

My guess is over the 3 months more people will want move, lifes normal progression, but then many will have less income/mortage available so perhaps seeking a smaller property than would be desired. There was a pre-existing backlog of demand, so hard to say if only nominal or more severs reduction in deamnd from new house buyers.

As you say Hernando, mortgage co's have their hands full with paperwork, so even if folks want to move, mortgage co's may slow them down*.

I am not aware of why mortgage co's/banks can't work from home to process using remote login. I am aware that inability to surveys is part of this delay, but that could change soon IMO.

If house buyers are delayed say from 14/6/20 (aspired lockdown reduction) to say 14/9/20, then no reason why builders can't keep going with builds, just have more on books that are sold subject to contract - and possibly use cash buffer and/or gov loan to bridge this period where mortgage co's etc catch up with normal service.

Taking 2 year view, I don't see why t/o can't be the same on supply side.
As to buyers with potentially smaller mortgage, maybe increase no of smaller (lower cost) houses and decrease bigger houses, so t/o maintained but bias towards more affordable property.

IMO
Dave

[growthpotential] 09/4/2020 13:11

Learn what moves markets when

[hernando2] 09/4/2020 13:10

JUGEARS

One on the difficulties ahead could be that people won't want to move house in the same numbers for quite a while, and perhaps banks will not be ready to get the mortgages sorted whilst they deal with other issues.

I can see that sales might be a lot slower as the country tries to find an exit from lockdown.

My next door neighbour got an offer on his house just before lockdown, the paperwork is still being done and the deal looks like it is going ahed subject to mortgages etc.

It will be interesting to see how quickly it happens

Also FTB could well be impacted by furloughing / job losses which could also affect demand.


On the other hand that slowdown in demand will almost certainly be time limited

[growthpotential] 09/4/2020 13:07

I think I bought the shares that you sold

[jugears] 09/4/2020 13:02

hornando, I think they are looking to restart sites sooner than that, most want to start a the end of April.
1carus, Tomorrow is good Friday,Markets will be closed until Tuesday.

[1carus] 09/4/2020 12:41

Annoying for me as I sold out at 117 I think. But the shares have been good for me, so cant complain. There are plenty of other things to put your money into, but in terms of income stock and that TW's position in pretty much affordable housing, I don't see any interruptions of significance in their business model etc. I'll wait and see what tomorrow brings.

[stevieweebie2] 09/4/2020 12:40

Okay, so houses arnt contructed and house builing isnt part of the contruction Industry, okay I get it now, pmpl.

[1carus] 09/4/2020 12:28

swb2, you are confusing construction with House Builders.... better stick to Lego.

[hernando2] 09/4/2020 12:27

The market is pricing in that overall TW will not be too affected by the shutdown, perhaps 3 months stoppage and then sites back to working, perhaps building little slower with distancing still being required.

The cash is still in the company and will be available to cushion any financial blow and pay out a divi.

IMO there is a lot of optimism around and that's why the bounce here and in other stocks.

If things don't go as well as hoped then we will see a re-trace. But TW at just over a pound was pricing in a lot of things going wrong.

Time will tell..

[jugears] 09/4/2020 12:25

Icarus, I have made more money out of share that dont pay a dividend than ones that do, if you bought at the low of this year you would have made more than 2 years dividends by now, dividends whilst very nice are not the bee all & end all.I doubt the dividend means anything to those that manipulate the share price up & down with a trading range between say £1.00 & £2.30 but more likely £1.70 for the short term with that sort of capital profit the dividend is irellivent & as these are not paying a dividend short term I would expect to see this traded quite heavily,how else do the mm'S make money ?

[stevieweebie2] 09/4/2020 12:20

Good luck Y'awll

[cashandcard] 09/4/2020 12:16

The huge variable that many folk need to factor in is Central Bank money printing and the transfer of liquidity into markets. Whereas in 2008-2009, they actually waited for a fullblown crisis and a slowdeath crash before TARP and money printing (QE) began, this time its happened fast and the printing presses were turned on immediately. The truth is monetary policy and macro is more important in the short term than company fundamentals. You can't fight the tide.

From everything I'm reading, commentators are expecting another huge bout of stimulus from Central banks this quarter. As FED in the US said, they have an open ended stimulus policy, QE-forever as its being dubbed. They will do whatever it takes to hold the markets up.

Not a good idea to short these markets.


Cash

[1carus] 09/4/2020 12:12

If they put the divi back in these would be at close to 160.
Honestly, I am confused.!!!
Actually that would make sense, no doubt they would actually drop back to 120ish to confuse me more!!

[1carus] 09/4/2020 12:09

Sometimes there is just no figuring the markets. What felt like most of last year we were bobbing along in the 140 to 160 range with a pretty decent divi. We now have a world pandemic costing trillions, a company that's downed tools and removed the divi. £1.40 is a fair price I would say. I am not saying its not worth 140, just that it doesnt figure based on even a 160 valuation last year. ( yes I know we spiked to 220, but it was short lived. Might not have been) But as time goes on share price seems to have less and less to do with any reasoning.

[gbh2] 09/4/2020 11:24

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