Tate & Lyle Share Discussion Threads

[midasx] 24/2/2009 07:36

Director confidence nice to see. I went long yesterday, good medium/long term prospects here.



TIDMTATE



Tate & Lyle PLC (the "Company") was informed yesterday that on 23 February 2009, Sir Peter Gershon, a Non-Executive Director and Chairman-Elect of the Company purchased a total of 34,700 ordinary 25p shares in the capital of the Company on the London Stock Exchange at an average price of 285.32 pence per share. Sir Peter Gershon had not previously reported holding an interest in the shares of the Company.


This notification is made in accordance with DTR 3.1.4R(1)(a) of the FSA's Disclosure and Transparency Rules.


Lucie GilbertDeputy Company Secretary


24 February 2009

[engineer66] 23/2/2009 08:54

Hi Harvester and wend, tks for comments. TATE has been under the cosh and has underperformed ABF, but outperformed Greencore which both have interest in sweeteners. Does any one have a feel for the sweetners market and TATE long term outlook? I thought the EU regime would improve matters for TATE, but rather destocking is having a more pronounced and adverse effect.

[harvester] 23/2/2009 08:43

Wendw: I hardly deserve praise for making a few honest statements about my trading and admitting to some losses in the past.
There are some people on the boards who try to advance their standing by claiming false wins but the fakes are recognised after a while . 2008 was a horrible year for long-mainly traders. Even many hedge funds which are supposed to be clever with shorting and two-way trading, suffered.

I have still not committed to Tate, trying to find the right entry point. I may later regret my hesitation. The market has a stronger feel this morning after the late Friday dow rally. As you say, short-term moves can also be exploited but you need to be quick to enter and exit a revolving door at the right moment.

Re banks: its a big week with lloy,rbs results coinciding with new government bail-out by way of bad asset insurance. The market knows roughly what is coming but is waiting for the details of interest rate charged and assets to be ring-fenced.Good luck with your Lloy .

[wendsworth] 22/2/2009 20:45

wipo1; Thanks for your supportive comments. LLoyds could be an interesting ride this week.

TATE at 250p to 'tuck away' has to be a sound investment!

[wipo1] 22/2/2009 19:02

Hi Wendsworth - Hope you are doing ok. I am still staying on the sidelines waiting to see what news comes out of US regarding Citigroup and Bank of America. Tate still been sold off I remember tate trading at 220-230p on a profit warning many years ago was is 2001? I think there will be a bounce from the 250p area though.

Good luck with LLOY, there was strong support last week at the 50p area, you wonder what deal Lloyds had with GB regarding the HBOS merger, surelly they struck a deal with future corporation tax payments and/or GB would have to take on some of hbos bad loans toxic debt?

Hopefully a better week next week!

[wendsworth] 22/2/2009 14:00

harvester Your candour is commendable. Having had two takeover investments in 2004 (Abbey National), 2005 (Exel) and traded AMEC up from the 360s (2006 through 2007) 2008 was a DISASTER ..virtually wiping out my profits of the three previous years.

I have been plotting FOUR targets since mid 2008 one of which s TATE. Doubtless the 15% fall was overdone last week and in 'normal markets'I would probably buy in to catch the bounce BUT these aint 'normal times'!

As to Lloyds today's Telegraph article is interesting and is probably what my broker and contacts had 'got wind of'. Reckon we could see some substantial gains this week .Results are 27/02 ..with 'the bad news factored in' by the recent announcement. Definitely worthy of a punt with minimal downside risk is my view!

[harvester] 22/2/2009 09:09

Wendw: the deadcat bounces are no problem since they are fairly easy to recognise.
The problem would be a major bear market rally lasting weeks or even months and then reverting to the major down-trend. I am not predicting it. In the major crash 1973/74 it did not go that way but in the 1932 crash that is what happened and helped to wipe many people out.
If you only hold Lloy bought at these low levels and don't commit too early then you have nothing to fear. I am more exposed than that and have had losses on BT,LGEN , NGT, UU., even Tsco etc but my option trading has mitigated losses on these shareholdings after years of good gains . Overall I have everything under control .
My only current bank exposure is 5K of RBS bought recently and option exposure to Lloy at 40 strike. I can afford to hold those even at the risk of nationalisation .

[wendsworth] 21/2/2009 13:25

harvester: Absolutely agree. Have been liquid since December ..my sole investment being LLoyds and that was this week!

May /June time we might well see the beginnings of a 'real upturn'. The important thing is not to be fooled by 'dead cat bounces' ....in other words 'let the overall trend be your friend'.

[harvester] 21/2/2009 09:35

Wend: no doubt you realise: all the major British banks will survive , no matter what. They always do . Nevertheless, the risk remains that shareholders get wiped out or diluted to oblivion. HMG may eventually succumb to political pressure to do so(nationalisation) even if it does not make commercial sense.It would be a last-ditch desperation measure since they do not hold enough reserves to take on the huge balance sheets of RBS and Lloy . It's a fluid situation and nobody really knows how it will develop. The next big market risk is sovereign state defaults or major bail-outs needed to prevent that .
At the moment it looks as though the first half of the year or part thereof is going to be tough for investors with perhaps a major rally in the second half. Skilled investors try not to get sucked in too early into false bear market blips but to get on board quickly when the real upturn starts. That is very hard to do.

[muffinhead] 20/2/2009 21:32

International Trade Commission decision 23rd February

Ruling about Sucralose American patent and cheaper chinese imports

[wendsworth] 20/2/2009 20:52

Engineer; Apologies for not having responded to your previous post.

I agree with Harvester. Providing you've covered your present position I have little doubt that by by June you'll be in profit.

Harvester : I appreciate your candour ref Lloyds. My investment is precisely that ...looking to 2/3 years hence. Shares paid for out of profit from TATE ..which I would have lost if I had not sold out...so 'nothing lost' if it goes pear shaped which I GENUINELY don't think it will . Too many of my contacts are beginning to think that LLoyds could well prove to be the one British bank to defy the odds!

Just have a feeling that in a month or so 'the investment climate might change a little' for the better? I had March 'pencilled-in' ( back in December ) as my possible re-investment month but now think it might be a little longer.

[harvester] 20/2/2009 18:03

Engineer: yes, Tate must have disapointed holders. Some stock just have negative sentiment in the market. But that can change. Every dog has its day and its bone sometime. With patience, good timing on exit and a bit of luck you may still see a profit .

[harvester] 20/2/2009 17:58

yes, Wend: the Tate thread looks a sensible discussion thread,
so will join your discussions from time to time.


It does look indeed as though ftse has now decisively broken down the 4000 barrier and the S&P is close to major support which heralds more declines if it gets broken .

I rolled my Lloy feb short 60 option to Mar 40 at zero cost(except minor trade commission}. That means I am contracted to buy at 40 in March{instead of today at 60} if it drops that low. Even if it does, there are counter -measures available if I don't want to buy then at 40.
I was a long-term holder of LLOY but baled out the rest of my shares when the hbos merger was announced. The recovery is a long way ahead. This year it is all about shareholder survival: i.e. avoidance of nationalisation. HMG is not keen on it but they may yet have to do it .

[wendsworth] 20/2/2009 16:17

wipo ; Now at 278p . looks like you might see your 250.

wormcatcher : How ever it pans out you'r doing the RIGHT thing.

DOW now at 7300 level and FTSE with sub 3900. Reckon next week could see my predicted levels for both indices.

[engineer66] 20/2/2009 15:46

I piled into TATE and they have been disappointing. Fundamentally you would hardly think the bottom would fall out of the sugar market so I'm not sure why the target was 285p or 240p. I was attracted to TATE by prospect of EU sugar reform impoving prices, good capex and dollar play. Just TATE's management have been pretty disappointing...tax calculation, legal suit, stronger competition, lack of ability to pull through on investment.

[wormcatcher] 20/2/2009 14:28

Brando,
I think the key thing with TATE is that it is unlikely to undergo any sudden upwards surge - when the recovery comes it will be steady, so I'm going to wait until an upwards trend develops and the general market news improves.
Different with Lloyds, say, as that could undergo a rapid correction on the right news, although even then if you don't mind missing out on that there will be time to get in once the general market improves......hang on, I think I'm talking myself out of investing in anything at the moment!

edit: its looking pretty grim across the board today.

[brando69] 20/2/2009 13:43

now back at 2004 prices...

anyone seeing an entry point soon?

[wendsworth] 20/2/2009 11:49

harvester : Welcome to a genuine BB with sensible comment and analysis.

Ref FTSE: Now approaching 3900 with my forecast low of 3500 in sight. DOW now highly likely to hit my target of 7000.

ref TATE : Why buy NOW? Are the markets likely to surge in short term? Previous comment last week of 330 being a good level are now looking dubious with TATE at 282 ..in such a short time.

ref Lloyds : A different scenario .A bombed out stock likely to be news driven ( one way or other!) over the next couple of weeks. I've only invested what I can afford to lose in LLoyds and fully expect this to be a 'five bagger' in 2/3 years. In essence I'm in for the long haul.Whatever its more interesting then 1-2% interest in a savings account!

[harvester] 20/2/2009 10:07

worm: yes, hard to find ADVFN threads with sensible discussions these days . It's partly due to ADVFN policy of favouring big site traffic to generate revenue. I would prefer to pay a higher subscription fee .

Roubini sees risk of sovereign debt default. I think he is right. It could be the next wammy to hit the markets .
New market low could be reached soon. I expect further weakness in Mar affecting most shares including Tate .

Re LLOY: I was caught short Feb Lloy 60 strike puts; option expiry today, so have to make a decision whether to close the position or roll to a lower strike . Short-term I can't see Lloy bounce above 65 price region .

[wormcatcher] 20/2/2009 07:48

Hi harvester,
Agree with you re:Tate.
No problem discussing lloy on here, don't post on bank threads as as you say there is no reasoned debate...I've got more than half the posters on those threads filtered and even then can't find any posts worth reading.

[harvester] 19/2/2009 18:01

wendsworth: thanks for5 earlier welcome to thread. I only just noticed your post.

I am still watching and holding back on Tate . Just as well, since it has continued its slide since I last considered it. It may be oversold at these levels but one should not stand in the way of the stampeding herd . It seems a well-run company to me with lots of irons in the fire . Therein also lie its problems in present bear market since any number of issues could adversely affect.These negatives are probably balanced by hedges, diversification etc which the bears probably ignore.
As far as I can see one of the negatives is recent declines of soft drinks and possible currency risks All in the price I would have thought but momentum traders will ignore that.

I may later join the Lloy debate here if traders on this thread do not object.
It is normally bad etiquette to discuss other companies on a company-specific thread. However, the Lloy thread has become virtually unusable due to squabbles and childish postings.

[wormcatcher] 19/2/2009 17:56

Hi wendsworth,

Although it is tempting, I'll hold off for a little while yet - certainly not looking to buy in this side of the weekend. I can't see this one doing what the banks have been doing and bouncing up at any great speed so no rush.

As for lloy I hope your're right and it works out for you (with todays rise you could of course put in a nice safe stop); I did well out of the banks on the last big rises and having banked (for want of a better word) the profits I've decided to turn to a couple of more defensive stocks for long term returns.

Although couldn't resist buying a few more shares in my old favorite TRE.

One more for the road - seriously tempted with lgen again - that one really could bounce once the big shorts close.

[wendsworth] 19/2/2009 17:35

wormcatcher and brando 69 : If you feel tempted refer back to my post 1900.You can check these facts out for your yourselves.

revoc2 ; In a word 'NO'! I have little doubt that there has been posturing on both sides to ensure an appropriate level of 'underwriting' for the toxic debt. My contacts are expecting a positive government announcement regarding 'covering the HBOS' debt ..although there is also a view that LLoyds has deliberately put the worst case scenario on the HBOS situation ..to ensure the best outcome. Suprisingly these same contacts are not as bullish regarding Barclays who they perceive has STILL overvalued its assets. Turning to my previous posts ..have they turned out to be way off the mark?

Ultimately investing in shares is a risk game BUT fortune favours the brave and LLoyds at 50.5p looked a steal to me . We'll see. No guarantees!

[brando69] 19/2/2009 11:44

rsi starting to look oversold...

[etome] 19/2/2009 11:42

Well, not looking good for TATE. The share price has been down since last week.


TATE & LYLE SUFFERS FROM A FALL IN THE TASTE FOR FIZZ

American sales of sugary drinks, such as Pepsi and Coke, are on the wane. This is bad news for Tate & Lyle, which is set to expand its business with a new plant in Iowa. Numis analyst Nicolas Ceron has cut his profit forecasts for the next financial year by 23 percent and his target price to 240 pence from 330 pence. However, Ceron emphasised that the weak pound against the dollar would prevent the sugar group from breaching its banking covenants. It's shares fell 14.75 pence to 322.5 pence.