Talktalk Telecom Share Discussion Threads

[thewheeliedealer] 10/11/2020 16:07

Hi all,

My mate Peter @Conkers3 and myself did a ‘Twin Petes Investing’ Podcast a few days ago and part of our discussion includes TALK (which C3 holds) and how we deal with Takeover situations. We also chatted about loads of other Stocks and Ideas for research with a particular slant on potential Takeover Targets, and the outlook for Markets and as usual a fair bit of educational stuff with regards to Investing.

Anyway, if you use Apple, Audioboom, Overcast or Spotify you can find it under the 'Conkers Corner' Channel (you want Podcast TPI 35) and you can find it on Soundcloud at the link below.

I hope you enjoy it and find it useful,

Cheers, WD
@wheeliedealer

[quepassa] 10/11/2020 13:21

Telecoms sector further rallying today.

BT up another 6% and Vodafone 2%.

Makes the 97p offer completely out of date, very stale and wholly unrealistic compared to today's market.

The 97p bid increasingly undervalues both the current value and future prospects of TalkTalk.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[harry_david] 09/11/2020 14:16

Agree, we will see these move higher under their own steam and the bid will die.

[quepassa] 09/11/2020 13:48

Telecoms sector racing ahead today:-

Vodafone + 8%
BT + 6%.

The 97p offer is now not just a seriously OUTDATED backwards-looking price but WOEFULLY and SIGNIFICANTLY undervalues the future potential of TALKTALK as a stand-alone independently listed broadband company.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 09/11/2020 11:20

IT APPEARS TO ME THAT THE FUTURE UPSIDE POTENTIAL FOR TALKTALK REMAINING INDEPENDENTLY LISTED IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN NOW SELLING OUT CHEAP TO A PREDATORY FINANCIAL BUYER IN A RISING MARKET.

IF TALKTALK SELLS ITSELF NOW AT SUCH A ROCK BOTTOM PRICE - ALL THAT WILL HAPPEN IS THAT TALKTALK WILL LIKELY BE ASSET-STRIPPED, SPLIT UP OR POSSIBLY MERGED WITH ANOTHER PRIVATE TELECOMS COMPANY AND THEN FLIPPED TO THE HIGHEST BIDDER IN A FEW YEARS TIME FOR A SIGNIFICANT RETURN, MOSTLY BENEFITING THE FINANCIAL INVESTORS.

A HIGHLY LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT CURRENT MANAGEMENT WILL BE DECIMATED. CAREERS WILL BE RUINED.CEASELESS RESTRUCTURINGS WILL ENSURE CORPORATE MAYHEM WITH MUCH DOWNSIZING OF HUMAN RESOURCES. COST-CUTTINGS WILL IMPLODE BOTH STAFF MORALE AND WELL-BEING. THE COMPANY MAY LIKELY BE STUFFED TO THE GILLS WITH DEBT. EXORBITANT ADVISORY FEES WILL LIKELY BE MERCILESSLY EXTRACTED FROM THE COMPANY WHOSE CASH-FLOWS WILL BE MILKED 24/7 TO FUND SKY-HIGH ADVISORY FEES AND DIVIDEND RETURNS TO RAPACIOUS INVESTORS.

THE ALTERNATIVE IS TO REMAIN INDEPENDENT AND CONTINUE WITH THE NEW AND INCREASINGLY SUCCESSFUL STRATEGY WHICH HAS RECENTLY BEEN EMBARKED UPON BY MANAGEMENT.

IF MANAGEMENT PURSUE THEIR INCREASINGLY SUCCESSFUL NEW CORPORATE STRATEGY AS AN INDEPENDENTLY LISTED COMPANY, THEY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY HAPPIER, SIGNIFICANTLY MORE SUCCESSFUL AND LIKELY MUCH, MUCH WEALTHIER BY HANGING ON IN THERE AND SEEING THE SHARE-PRICE POTENTIALLY INCREASE BY MANY MULTIPLES RATHER THAN SELLING OUT NOW CHEAP IN A RISING MARKET TO A NON-INDUSTRY FINANCIAL PREDATORY INVESTOR AT A BAD TIME IN THE MARKETS AND THROWING AWAY CHEAP THE MASSIVE UPSIDE POTENTIAL AS A RESULT OF THEIR NEW STRATEGY.

THE BOARD AND THE MANAGEMENT OF TALKTALK WOULD IN MY VIEW BE ILL-ADVISED AND SHORT-SIGHTED TO SELL OUT NOW TO A PREDATORY FINANCIAL INVESTOR AT SUCH A LOW PRICE AND BAD TIME IN A RISING MARKET.

IF TALKTALK REMAINS INDEPENDENT, THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO REASON WHY THE COMPANY CANNOT FURTHER FLOURISH AND CONTINUE TO FURTHER REHABILITATE ITS FORTUNES WHILST ENSURING THE WELL-BEING OF THEIR LOYAL WORKFORCE AND MAKING ALL MANAGEMENT, EMPLOYEES AND SHAREHOLDERS MUCH, MUCH MORE MONEY THAN BY SELLING OUT CHEAP NOW TO A NON-INDUSTRY BUYER.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[cwa1] 09/11/2020 11:03

Hi QP

You need any help with that caps shift button? ;-)

[quepassa] 09/11/2020 10:55

IT APPEARS TO ME THAT THE FUTURE UPSIDE POTENTIAL FOR TALKTALK REMAINING INDEPENDENTLY LISTED IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN NOW SELLING OUT CHEAP TO A PREDATORY FINANCIAL BUYER IN A RISING MARKET.

IF TALKTALK SELLS ITSELF NOW AT SUCH A ROCK BOTTOM PRICE - ALL THAT WILL HAPPEN IS THAT TALKTALK WILL LIKELY BE ASSET-STRIPPED, SPLIT UP OR POSSIBLY MERGED WITH ANOTHER PRIVATE TELECOMS COMPANY AND THEN FLIPPED TO THE HIGHEST BIDDER IN A FEW YEARS TIME FOR A SIGNIFICANT RETURN, MOSTLY BENEFITING THE FINANCIAL INVESTORS.

A HIGHLY LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT CURRENT MANAGEMENT WILL BE DECIMATED. CAREERS WILL BE RUINED.CEASELESS RESTRUCTURINGS WILL ENSURE CORPORATE MAYHEM WITH MUCH DOWNSIZING OF HUMAN RESOURCES. COST-CUTTINGS WILL IMPLODE BOTH STAFF MORALE AND WELL-BEING. THE COMPANY MAY LIKELY BE STUFFED TO THE GILLS WITH DEBT. EXORBITANT ADVISORY FEES WILL LIKELY BE MERCILESSLY EXTRACTED FROM THE COMPANY WHOSE CASH-FLOWS WILL BE MILKED 24/7 TO FUND SKY-HIGH ADVISORY FEES AND DIVIDEND RETURNS TO RAPACIOUS INVESTORS.

THE ALTERNATIVE IS TO REMAIN INDEPENDENT AND CONTINUE WITH THE NEW AND INCREASINGLY SUCCESSFUL STRATEGY WHICH HAS RECENTLY BEEN EMBARKED UPON BY MANAGEMENT.

IF MANAGEMENT PURSUE THEIR INCREASINGLY SUCCESSFUL NEW CORPORATE STRATEGY AS AN INDEPENDENTLY LISTED COMPANY, THEY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY HAPPIER, SIGNIFICANTLY MORE SUCCESSFUL AND LIKELY MUCH, MUCH WEALTHIER BY HANGING ON IN THERE AND SEEING THE SHARE-PRICE POTENTIALLY INCREASE BY MANY MULTIPLES RATHER THAN SELLING OUT NOW CHEAP IN A RISING MARKET TO A NON-INDUSTRY FINANCIAL PREDATORY INVESTOR AT A BAD TIME IN THE MARKETS AND THROWING AWAY CHEAP THE MASSIVE UPSIDE POTENTIAL AS A RESULT OF THEIR NEW STRATEGY.

THE BOARD AND THE MANAGEMENT OF TALKTALK WOULD IN MY VIEW BE ILL-ADVISED AND SHORT-SIGHTED TO SELL OUT NOW TO A PREDATORY FINANCIAL INVESTOR AT SUCH A LOW PRICE AND BAD TIME IN A RISING MARKET.

IF TALKTALK REMAINS INDEPENDENT, THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO REASON WHY THE COMPANY CANNOT FURTHER FLOURISH AND CONTINUE TO FURTHER REHABILITATE ITS FORTUNES WHILST ENSURING THE WELL-BEING OF THEIR LOYAL WORKFORCE AND MAKING ALL MANAGEMENT, EMPLOYEES AND SHAREHOLDERS MUCH, MUCH MORE MONEY THAN BY SELLING OUT CHEAP NOW TO A NON-INDUSTRY BUYER.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 05/11/2020 16:27

Interesting comment and article in City A.M. this morning.

The final paragraph is pertinent and to be noted:-

hXXps://www.cityam.com/talktalk-extends-deadline-for-toscafund-offer/


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[1224saj] 05/11/2020 08:47

Anybody know what's happening with TT's bid to buy the Post Office Telecoms for 100m? Very strange things are happening out there?

[quepassa] 05/11/2020 07:13

Today's RNS re one month's extension of Offer Period to December 3rd:

"Commercial discussions and due diligence are progressing with TAM."

Let's trust that "Commercial discussions" includes a significantly enhanced offer price over 97p.


If not, I think the financial press would possibly have a field day in thoroughly investigating just why the Board would reject an indicative 135p offer some months ago and now countenance a 97p offer.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[1gw] 04/11/2020 18:02

Decision time then. Offer, walk away or extend the deadline tomorrow? The price suggests (to me) the market doesn't really have a strong opinion - upside of a sweetened offer broadly balanced by the downside of walking away. I think it does suggest there's not much probability being put on a counter-offer and a bidding contest though.

[paulo435] 04/11/2020 18:02

We should see a 7am RNS tomorrow then, any predictions!?

[quepassa] 03/11/2020 15:17

For short-term traders who think the 97p Tosca offer is effectively a done-deal, market-makers have left a very generous 6% on the table for a 48 hour trade with shares currently offered around 92p.

Market-makers are not normally so generous.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[shaker44] 03/11/2020 13:47

Yes it's a stitch up and watch regulators do zip all to protect pi's. Same old

[paulo435] 03/11/2020 13:23

I’m meaning that he still has about 1/3rd of his wealth invested in this. Could sell
up and walk today if he wanted - £300m or so to draw down from.

1224 - yes I agree. They are working in cahoots. Offer 135p not long ago and then TP publicly state they can understand why this undervalues and that more could be achieved, then come in again with a ridiculous 97p offer - do they have very short memories or have just made the most ridiculous slip up? Seem to be very much in bed with each other.

[bookbroker] 03/11/2020 07:32

He didn’t invest £300mln., when CPW split and the phone business merged with DC., and TALK went it alone with the associated debt of the two companies. However when CPW floated back in 2001 Dunstone retained nearly 290 milllion shares in CPW from the IPO. That was after receiving likely £200mln in cash for the part he relinquished. From Day 1 this was a cash cow once they started dividends. He had circa £100mln from Talk alone in dividends, all the time getting a dividend from DC. He has done very nicely out of the original company, receiving big money from Best Buy deal, etc. Does not need the money now, but it was his creation, breaking up is hard to do, except when the price is right.

[1224saj] 02/11/2020 23:22

Paulo, there are so many agendas here. BOD, employee share scheme and major shareholders average share price are all higher than the offer price. This has all the hallmarks of a side deal from TP to bring these holders to the party when they become a private company. They will then continue to build the company to a greater value for a high value exit say in 3 years. All of this helped by a under market value offer. The only losers could be the 31% of PI's, unless of course the regulated gets involved as the PI's are not being offered the same terms as the above??PI's, unless of cous

[paulo435] 02/11/2020 22:17

Bookbroker, Dunstone has invested (if my calcs are correct) around one third of his personal wealth in this company ie circa £300M. Purchases frequently higher than mooted offer price. I don’t think he will simply walk away from that so easily. I do find the drop today significant and clearly some kind of information has been exposed - or sells or shorts have been high today. Thoughts anyone ?

[bookbroker] 02/11/2020 17:14

Dunstone believes in this company, he will not let it go for the amount on offer, then off course he might feel that his time is better spent elsewhere.

[quepassa] 02/11/2020 16:33

A fluctuation of a percent or two around a mooted offer price is one thing.

A sudden 7% drop beneath is another.

Currently 90p market versus 97p mooted take-out price.


Only 48 hours left now (barring an extension) before Tosca have to announce either way.


" Scratch a dog and you'll find a permanent job ".



ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[paulo435] 02/11/2020 16:10

Not a good dip today

[1224saj] 02/11/2020 14:48

Today's price movement has all the hallmarks that the deal is not going to happen. Great buying opportunity :-)

[1gw] 30/10/2020 16:55

PUSU date Thursday, although it could be extended. Market doesn't seem to be fancying the chances of a much-improved offer, let alone a counter-offer.

[1224saj] 29/10/2020 13:48

Shares for sale today at 93p with a probing offer of 97p. My take on this is that there is no deal coming. 5 days we will know all. TT secures the Post office telephony customers and TF ups it bid to north of 1.40??