Talktalk Telecom Share Discussion Threads

[1224saj] 08/10/2020 19:25

15m shares short call option, somebody's got a big set, betting on this not happening. But there again it's a table that the PI's are never invited to.Factor in the premium, the fees for the advisors and the story to the market, come the 5th November, this will die, stock will plummet, market will think TT not even worth 1.1b and the Mark walks away with, say 20% or a cool £3m for a 3 week wait, not bad.

[jubberjim] 08/10/2020 16:19

I could be wrong and I am willing to be advised otherwise but my reading of the situation was
Charles Dunston had been adding and was on or near the 30 % level that would trigger a bid
Tosca had been buying at the same time
This level as far as I can recollect was around 115/120
I have this day sold half my holding as I needed to free up some liquidity
Specifically I can see a disparity in the av. lgen and sla share prices thus oppurtunity
Off topic I know but any advice as to which I should go for would be welcome
Shorting is out of the question as I don t agree with it due to the pandemic but more obviously I don t know how to

[1224saj] 08/10/2020 16:10

Excellent point Paulo

[harry_david] 08/10/2020 15:35

QuePassa, I agree and my opinion is that Dunstone is a very astute negotiator and Tosca will not finish up with a bargain like this.

[paulo435] 08/10/2020 15:19

Qpassa - you also. What is your reasoning for stating they will never get it for £1.1bn, keen to hear your opinion.

[paulo435] 08/10/2020 15:18

096 - don’t post instructions unless you provide good reasoning/analysis behind it. “Don’t sell”. I personally am not at present, but what is your logic?? Or are you just posting for the sake of it and a troll. I see you’ve made a grand total of 9 posts in over a year.

[paulo435] 08/10/2020 15:12

Checkers, the long term goal for Tosca may also be to sell, but they cannot simply talk the price up here and must be serious about offering. It’s market manipulation otherwise and illegal. Big question for me is why do they think they can get it for 97p today when they couldn’t get it for 135p not long ago. Other than the share price, nothing else has worsened to that degree

[checkers2] 08/10/2020 14:51

Tosca also want to sell, at the right price, they are just putting Talk into play

[1224saj] 08/10/2020 14:28

QP on the other BB is saying that Tosca will never get their hands on TT for 1.1B

[quepassa] 08/10/2020 14:16

Serious market commentators may wish to read back over my posts for the last 6-12 months.


In my opinion only, Tosca will most certainly not be buying TalkTalk for £1.1bn.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[09636546] 08/10/2020 13:21

whatever you do do not sell

[09636546] 08/10/2020 13:20

whatever you do dont sell

[1224saj] 08/10/2020 13:09

Possibly trying to buy 10m shares to close their short position. Hold

[paa65] 08/10/2020 12:56

Jpmorgan a little over 1% short. https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B4YCDF59/Could be buying back

[paulo435] 08/10/2020 12:47

I think the share price now hitting £1 ie greater than the mooted offer price indicates where the market thinks this may be heading

[1gw] 08/10/2020 12:16

Quite a high bar though. I think a competitor doesn't just have to beat the 97p, they have to offer enough to knock Toscafund out. i.e. if Toscafund have Dunstone on board (and why wouldn't he favour going private if he gets to keep his equity and can avoid all the scrutiny that comes with a public company) then I would assume they haven't made their "best and final" offer yet, so they have something in reserve. If a competitor comes in with a higher bid, Toscafund can up their own offer in response until they get to their limit.

Is it worth a competitor offering higher just to make Toscafund pay more and maybe saddle the private company with more debt as a result, so that it would be less competitive? Maybe, but might be difficult to convince your board to let you spend a lot of money on preparing a bid which you thought wouldn't eventually succeed. Really it needs a competitor who can extract synergies that Toscafund can't so that they can beat Toscafund's "best offer" - and that might be possible. But then what do they do about Dunstone? Would he be prepared to take cash for his shares or does he want to stay involved (keep equity if not executive control) because ultimately he believes it is worth a lot more than he would get now in a cash offer?

[shaker44] 08/10/2020 11:48

You are right paa65 but talktalk major competitors should have views about this being sold on the cheap. Expect advisers of Vodafone etc to be running their slide rules over this again. Even Dunstone can't recommend a cosy 97p against a bid of 120p

[paa65] 08/10/2020 11:36

I'm a holder and still holding, although atm I can't see the incentive for a higher bid to come through.With Dunstone and Tosca both holding 30% the only shareholder Tosca have to convince is Dunstone. And they could do that without bidding higher - continued seat on the board, private equity stake, bonus based on future performance etc.Only if they want Dunstone completely out of the business would they need a higher offer.

[paulo435] 08/10/2020 11:05

Personally I’m going to hold on to this stock until this deal is done. Tosca approached the company previously with an offer of 135p which was knocked back, but now today they have tabled 97p which has been “well received by the board and talks are continuing”. I think it’s an opening gambit and will land higher - plus the prospect of PE firms awash with cash at them moment could enter the stage.

[paulo435] 08/10/2020 10:59

I should say, Toscafund currently own just less than 30%, they are not obliged therefore in respect of the 12month price. I was questioning at the time of my post why Dunstone had not made an offer since he appeared to own 30.5% and if he was to make an offer then it would need to be at the highest 12 mth price paid.

[1224saj] 08/10/2020 10:56

Paulo, thank you for getting back to me. Learn something everyday :-)I would assume Dunstone being a smart boy, he probably does not have the voting rights? Do you know from your research what was his highest price paid for stock in the last 12 months, it's got to be up there in the 1.30's?

[pierre oreilly] 08/10/2020 10:54

Theft from pi shareholders imv.

If the current big shareholders are also big shareholders in the bidding company, then it's theft, pure and simple. The rough edge of capitalism. Totally insular decision from those who'll profit also controlling the outcome with no effective vote for those owners who happen to be pis.

At least rip us off with a fairish price of 200p. (obviously, they know it's worth far more than that, that's precisely why they want if for themselves and f all loyal shareholder pis)

[paulo435] 08/10/2020 10:48

Hi saj, this is what I was referring to and takeover code:
When a person or group acquires interests in shares carrying 30% or more of the voting rights of a company, they must make a cash offer to all other shareholders at the highest price paid in the 12 months before the offer was announced (30% of the voting rights of a company is treated by the Code as the level at which effective control is obtained).
(Dunstone seems to hold more than 30% of the company but it may be that he doesn’t have more than 30% in voting rights, thats what I don’t know)

[1224saj] 08/10/2020 10:33

Paulo, ref your post 3288. Highest price paid in the last 12 months.What are you referring to?