Tclarke Share Discussion Threads

[cheshire man] 03/9/2018 16:34

Regent Gas Holdings increases stake :-)

[igoe104] 01/9/2018 09:03

More work won.

Chris Harris
@tc_scotland

Good news for our M&E team, who have secured M&E works packages at the new £78 million Forth Valley College Falkirk Campus

[ottrott] 21/8/2018 09:25

The operating margin H1 2018 vs H1 2017 was down in both the SE and Scotland. It was only the recovery in Central/SW, from a loss last year, that dragged the overall margin from 2.0% to 2.6%.

[lasmo] 21/8/2018 08:57

My expectation is it could be higher based on the quality of the order book and management’s drive to improve margins. The key factor is that better performance translates into bigger dividends.

[effortless cool] 20/8/2018 21:21

Hard to see anything other than a beat coming in H2 for CTO.

H1 revenue was £153.5m, consensus is £300.9m, implying £147.4m for H2. However, historically, H2 revenues have generally been higher than H1. If the average relationship since 2012 is applied, that gives H2 revenue of £172.9m and full year revenue of £326.4m.

You might note that the order book at the start of 2018 H2 is lower than one year previously: £370m versus £392m. However, £370m is the second highest level the order book has ever been at - it was only £337m at the end of 2017.

I am forecasting 2018 revenue of £325.7m and normalised EPS of 13.6p, versus consensus of 13.2p.

[cc2014] 17/8/2018 13:55

"Pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca is understood to be in talks to replace Skanska on its delayed flagship HQ project in Cambridge.

Costs have skyrocketed beyond £500m on the vast project, which now looks set to be completed nearly two years late.

...

If Mace is confirmed as the new project lead at the AstraZeneca job, it would be the second time in a year that the firm has stepped in to take over a Skanska contract.

Mace also replaced Skanska on the £1bn+ Phase Two contract at the Battersea Power Station redevelopment in London after the client revised its contract strategy on the project to construction management to control costs more tightly."


A couple of points:
1. Project is understood to be on a cost plus basis so easy for someone else to step in and means no risk for contractor.
2. Guess who won the electrical and BMS package last week for Mace at Battersea Power Station where Skanska were thrown off...

All conjecture on my part. Mace won't be taking over unless they are sure they can deliver which means they will need a heavyweight M&E contractor. There aren't that many of those around... I believe Skanska do their M&E in-house so there would be no existing contractor in pole position.

[rivaldo] 12/8/2018 10:25

Current forecasts are 13.2p EPS this year rising to 14.1p EPS next year - a P/E of 6.5, falling to just 6.2.

And here's good news re the new Climate Solutions division:



"TClarke Climate Solutions : Partner Status achieved with Mitsubishi
Posted: 08th August 2018

TClarke Climate solutions are pleased to announce we have achieved Business Solutions Partner status with Mitsubishi Electric within our first three months of trading. This is a great achievement and will enable us to meet the criteria set out by many of our corporate & commercial clients, we look forward to working in partnership with Mitsubishi and continuing to further develop our relationship.

Download our climate solutions brochure >"

[rivaldo] 10/8/2018 12:18

The mid-price is up to 88.3p now - I assume after the 100,000 share buy at 87p earlier today.

Margins are improving, and the business is nicely spread between many, many contracts, as well as moving into exciting areas like intelligent buildings etc.

[lasmo] 08/8/2018 13:26

Overall really pleased with the results. Margin improvement was what I was looking for. Good new on pension deficit reduction.Just a slight niggle that they aren’t picking up more prestigious contracts in Scotland. For example huge amount of building work taking place around Aberdeen airport including the new Exhibition centre.

[cc2014] 08/8/2018 08:51

Absolutely Rivaldo. Also, when you look at the make-up of the forward order book the growth in technologies where the high margin work is, is outstanding. Absolutely outstanding. A huge increase in the order book for technologies which is exactly the right direction of travel.

Here is a copy of page 6 from the investor pack




It is my view the MM are keeping the spread wide to discourage buyers as they are working orders for someone. Yesterday afternoon I could get a quote to sell 100k+ shares inside the spread at 85.625. It's the same this morning.

[rivaldo] 08/8/2018 08:19

Nice start - the mid-price is now up to 87.6p.

As regards the order book, N+1 Singer pointed out that at £370m it's "well above the long term average of £282m".

And we know that this is despite CTO's cutting out lower-margin and lower quality work.

The share price is ridiculous when you think that forecasts are for 13.2p EPS this year, rising to 14.1p EPS - and at this rate are likely to be beaten.

Plus CTO have a healthy cash pile.

Plus already fully secured revenues for this year and already 50% for NEXT year.

[igoe104] 07/8/2018 17:29

Overseas at the moment, so just popping in. Looks like we have the dark cloud of Milton hanging over us. It seems however good results are the share price won't crack 90p. PE of 6, nearly 5 million in the bank, what more can one do. Id love RNWH to take these over, so it's a win win for me. Unfortunately that's unlikely to happen, because of a recent acquisition.

[squarepeg86] 07/8/2018 17:16

Haven't had much chance to follow things today, but that was a bit of a disappointment. Read the RNS this morning and expected a decent jump up after seeing how positive it was...

[mfhmfh] 07/8/2018 16:47

generally positive write-up on stockopedia today.

[cc2014] 07/8/2018 15:29

It seems there is a large buyer. MM's happy to buy lots of stock at 85.6251

...

[cheshire man] 07/8/2018 13:44

Very pleasing HYR, a confident hold for me with a decent yield :-)

[dozey3] 07/8/2018 13:31

Post Brexit slump is being priced in, rightly or wrongly. 100% domestic market means high exposure to reduced confidence and investment. Reduced order book may be symptom of times to come, and not just attempt to increase margins.

[norbert colon] 07/8/2018 12:45

NG Bailey results also out:https://www.theconstructionindex.co.uk/news/view/ng-bailey-strategy-continues-to-deliver-profit-growth?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitterEqually doing well.

[cc2014] 07/8/2018 11:24

So, my thoughts on reflection. To cut to the chase I'm puzzled why the share price hasn't moved up faster this morning. Hopefully the institutions will digest them over the next 24 hours and place some orders.


Expectations are for underlying profit before tax of £7.0m. At half time they have done £3.7m. This is the first time in my memory I can remember them getting to more than 50% by half time and usually they have plenty to do in the second half.

I think it appropriate to safely assume the £7m is nailed on and it's not unreasonable to suggest it will be beaten. Hard to say by how much but £7.5m looks not unrealistic. Possibly more. Looking further forward whilst it's difficult to predict how fast they will get to 3% margin, the strategy is working and it seems likely it's not that far away. The order book is stable and I'm cool with that as they focus on improving margin. I'd like both increasing margin and turnover. It appears I may have to be a little patient for that. The broker forecasts appear to be £7m for this year and £7.5m for next year. £7.5m for next year looks under ambitious and beatable to me.

I was heartened by the improvement in pension deficit from £23.4m at year end to £18.9m, an improvement of £4.5m. The size of the deficit was starting to look a little onerous at £23.4m and it's good to see the deficit reduction plan has kicked in at last. The BOE put interest rates up in the first week of August so witherising bond yields this should further improve the situation by year end.

Perhaps a good way of looking at it is that overall net assets have risen by £8.4m in the last year, the company is turning a reasonable and improving profit whilst paying a decent enough dividend.

Rivaldo has kindly provided N+1’s note. If we take last night’s closing price of say 82.5 and remove the discount to peers this gives say 82.5/.64 = 129p a share. I guess it might be fair to knock something off for the pension deficit although I’m not sure entirely why as most companies have them. 104p looks a little low to me but then it always does when it comes to N+1 forecasts.

[battlebus2] 07/8/2018 11:00

Thanks Rivaldo seems a fair target price 👍

[rivaldo] 07/8/2018 10:55

Quite right NC - now amended :o))

[norbert colon] 07/8/2018 10:48

N+1 Singer....

[rivaldo] 07/8/2018 10:25

N+1 Singer are very positive, with a 104p share price target which they say could be exceeded.....

"Shares attractively valued

In our view, TClarke is overdue a re-rating. The shares trade at a substantial discount to peers (33%-35% on a P/E basis), despite maintaining earnings forecasts (9% and 7% EPS growth forecast), strong earnings visibility and an attractive yield at 4.4%. We believe a sector rating is justified - a blended average of peer group multiples implies a share price of 104p. We believe the shares could exceed this level as EPS and order book growth is delivered."