System1 Share Discussion Threads

[wolfcub] 08/1/2018 11:53

I was going to pile in if we saw these levels again, but have decided for now to hold fire. In hindsight it was pure luck I managed to sell a few near the top due to an unexpected bill I had to pay. Sometimes life kicks yo but also helps so to speak.

[longshanks] 08/1/2018 10:44

Difficult to assess just how chronic the problems are at this stage.My target re-entry point was and is £3 although I was hoping to see some clearer signs of an improvement in performance at this stage.The last few months of the calendar year are so important to this company and they have historically relied upon customer loyalty and heavy Christmas advertising budgets to overcome their poor lack of visibility.With such a poor outlook statement I am nervous about the boards ability to turn things around now.I admire your investing style woozle but it seems that this knife may have quite a way to fall yet.

[woozle1] 08/1/2018 09:26

Trying to pick the bottom is a trading decision and not my core competence. I like the falling knife as one tends to build a sizeable position that really pays off in the longer term (if the business returns to profitability!).

[pugugly] 08/1/2018 09:25

Spread far too wide (imo) Also much market research far too flaky to trust (over 40 years bitter experience - trade !!!)

[topvest] 08/1/2018 09:16

Hmm - I was thinking of about £2. Always expensive here. Not tempted at that valuation.

[woozle1] 08/1/2018 08:53

let's see if there's any stock around. I put in for 5,000 shares at 3.20

[topvest] 08/1/2018 07:58

Yes, awful - about £3-4m lower in profits. Might start to get interesting at half the current £47m market cap. On my watch list.

[longshanks] 08/1/2018 07:29

Oh dear - what a horrible TU.Further pain to come I feel.

[woozle1] 18/12/2017 14:18

Finally got some shares at 375.
w1

[woozle1] 07/12/2017 20:20

I've bought a few but expect this to go lower. It's no use trying to pick the bottom. I'm a fan of averaging down and holding for a long time. Though holding for a long time may not be a good idea as they hit the skids periodically.
w1

[longshanks] 28/11/2017 17:14

Liontrust have reduced. Would be surprised if it ends there.Looks like other funds are being enticed in but not sure if that buying will hold up the share price.You should have no problem picking up stock at £4 now woozle but I think it will soften more unless the next results show a fast bounce back in performance.

[longshanks] 27/10/2017 17:06

Liquidity has always been an issue but you should be able to fill an order of that size in the short term: you might just need to pay 10% more.The advertising agency is a total toss up. There is little indication from the interims that it is generating meaningful revenues yet so there is a risk that if it doesn't start delivering soon it is something they halt/write off in due course to save costs.

[woozle1] 27/10/2017 16:54

It may have fallen 25% but I've tried all day with no luck to pick just 3,000 shares at 400. It's clearly tightly held and will just have to wait for another warning.

My own feeling is that there are now other firms offering this type of behavioural marketing analysis and that the chill winds of competition are being felt.

The other upside here is that the agency business takes off.

w1

[longshanks] 27/10/2017 16:20

Some good analysis Walbrock82.The changes in client numbers are interesting although I would point out that they accounted for this in part in the 2016 year with the ceasing of their lower margin "twist" businesses to focus on higher margin "System1".The rebrand is undoubtedly the biggest destroyer of value here: that and the elevated levels of hubris. Pride really did come before a fall.On the question of board openness: I think it unfair to criticise that. For me it is welcome and a sign that the company's leadership is up to the task of turning this around. As for the short term direction - I never short, but I think a £3 sell target is justifiable.

[walbrock82] 27/10/2017 14:12

Investors have failed to identify a crucial key data in 2016’s annual results that is client numbers! See table:

They were caught off guard by the name change, robust sales and profit growth, and, especially the announcement of their special dividend of 26 pence!

Recent shareholders are now licking their wounds, and long-term investors are seeing a huge loss in unrealized capital gains!

For full analysis and charts of System1, click

[woozle1] 27/10/2017 09:16

It's starting to get interesting, though. I've put in an order for a few (it's trading on a 50p bid/offer) to establish a position even though it will probably go lower. Skin in the game does focus the mind.

There was one concerning reference to companies being more interested in cheaper, data products; which is where YouGov have appeared to anticipate this trend and invested heavily.

The concern is the fixed cost base and the ability to withstand ongoing revenue hit. I'm wondering if they regret handing back £4.5m back to shareholders (mainly Kearnon and so he's alright, Jack) last year.

w1

[juzzer100] 27/10/2017 09:06

Not fun reading at all. I have to say you have to give the company and CEO for their honesty however.

[longshanks] 27/10/2017 07:28

Today's gloomy outlook for the important H2 trading period doesn't bode well. I like the positive "long view" and clear commitment to seeing through a painful business transition but it makes an unappealing investment case for the short term.

[longshanks] 23/10/2017 14:13

This could easily drop much lower so I have exited completely. I will buy back in if it drops below £3.

[woozle1] 16/10/2017 07:14

down she goes, again. starting to look interestin

[woozle1] 11/9/2017 11:13

System 1 was is a terrible name and is almost an admission that the business is generic and subject to competition. For people who know a thing or two about marketing it seems a strange mistake; to admit that they've copied much from Daniel Kahneman. The two competing explanations for this change are hubris (likely) and that the BJU brand was not worth much.

All that said, if it gets too cheap it will be bought.

w1

[juzzer100] 18/8/2017 16:07

Yes, it seems the board have lost a bit of focus, and the promotion of their book on the System 1 website (£12.99 on Amazon) feels a little autobiographical!

[pugugly] 18/8/2017 14:36

JUZZER100: All too true and as having been in marketing and reseach almost all my working life I know only too well that there is a very rapid t/o of executives on both Client and Advertising agency side so that new names (re-branding) often fail to register.

Management have lost my confidence.

[essential] 18/8/2017 13:11

Yep sold up on this news - took 20+% loss but experience shows taking 20% losses through a stop loss avoids much bigger losses as well as opportunity costs

[juzzer100] 18/8/2017 12:17

I have followed BJU and SYS1 for a while now, and I am not sure the rebrand has been at all successful to be honest. Brainjuicer was a fantastically well known and well respected innovative market research brand. System 1 and System 2 were terms for revolutionary thinking created by Daniel Kahneman (not John Kearnon to my knowledge).Kearon read the book, and used the idea for Brainjuicer - all fine. However i see two big issues with the rebrand (yes, retrospectively, I agree):Firstly, the market research industry is very saturated, and most agencies are now also offering System 1 techniques... as well as having trusted brands themselves. By arrogantly trying to grab the generic term, System 1, for himself I feel Kearon has managed to destroy his company's unique brand identity. It's a bit like Virgin Atlantic rebranding themselves Flights Ltd. Secondly, Kearon also assumes that everyone who uses Market Research knows and loves what Brainjuicer does/did and would happily seek them out with their new name. However for those who are looking for an MR agency and don't know Brainjuicer or do and are simply not aware of the rebrand, the name Brainjuicer sounds innovative and fun but System1, to be honest, sounds a bit like a dull old technology company!It's all been a surprising exercise for an advertising/ branding man!It's all in today's RNS: "This is mainly due to non-recurrence of large one-off Innovation projects as a result of some significant client spending deferrals and a more competitive market". All IMHO, but lots of brain juicing required I reckon!