Syqic Share Discussion Threads

[30pete] 04/12/2013 19:05

dewtrader - yes im new to advfn but not sure what your point is. Read my posts - investing some money i got from selling my car until i buy a new one in Jan/feb. Did some research for undervalued share and thought PLE was the one - it has drifted following news and i looked around for another option and found this. Looking for a share that is undervalued and has the potential to revalue in the short term. SYQ ticks that box. Come Jan/Feb will i hold these? - well if i don't need to sell them all to buy my new car yes i will. Time will tell - whats your interest in this thread?

[awesometactics] 04/12/2013 18:35

You could always offload some other stocks from your portfolio. This has hardly started moving yet, that late action really sets us up for a massive move tomorrow and onwards.

[mirabeau] 04/12/2013 18:25

Well, I wished I'd bought some. Unfortunately I am skint

GLA

[awesometactics] 04/12/2013 18:11

dewtrader- I honestly hope you don't have an agenda because right now your posts aren't coming off to well.

[dewtrader] 04/12/2013 18:10

30pete
Profile Created 11 Nov 2013

[awesometactics] 04/12/2013 18:10

Hi mate, Very well said and obviously its not very difficult to see that this is a bargain but its very nice of you to have put it down on paper! Interestingly I could argue your number are also a little conservative because you have not attributed much in terms of the massive growth potential here.

[30pete] 04/12/2013 18:03

Been talking to myself on the other thread so thought id copy this post over

The more i look at this the more it looks undervalued. the Broker statement (post 10 above) says PE 15 so £1.30 target price. The PE is maybe lower than some might give it compared to its peers but lets stick with that. What looks really conservative is the revenue growth used for the 2013 and 2014 forecasts.

On page 25 of the document in post 9 there is a graph of revenues for this year. On page 24 there is a graph of "transactions" if you divide one by the other you get the rough cost of a transaction (a subscriber) - for the last 3 months it is approx £0.73. using this you can work out the transaction growth Allenby used for Nov-13 (9% month on month) and Dec-13 (12% month on month) if you look at the actual month on month growth for Jun-13 23%, Jul-13 134%, Aug 40%, Sep-13 74% Oct 24%. its way too conservative. so i reckon the revenues for 2014 will be significantly up lifted at the year end. and sticking with a P/E of 15 it will put the target closer to £2.
The 2014 forecast is based on Sep-13 revenue of £651k times 12 = £7.8m

Yet the Oct-13 actual was £760k; times that by 12 you get £9.1m (17% more) and you would assume the profit margin would improve as the cost of sale must be mostly fixed with little variable.

If you take the dec-13 forecast sales of £921k and multiply by 12 = £11.05m 40% more! Thats an extra £3.25m revenue with surely a very low cost addition but for sake of prudence lets keep the profit margin the same the EPS will be 40% more than the forecast - so the broker forecast will go from £1.30 to £1.80 and assumes no growth for the whole of 2014.

This share is a bargin.

[30pete] 04/12/2013 17:31

although i am probably talking to myself!

Hopefully this will get out in the wider press (after i top up) as its criminal to have it valued at 82p-85p a share

[30pete] 04/12/2013 17:23

Agree
tradesense = talks sense

quiet refreshing being able to write about a share positively and not get stoned to death for being a ramper.

[30pete] 04/12/2013 17:19

lol the 2014 forecast is based on Sep-13 revenue of £651k times 12 = £7.8m

Yet the Oct-13 actual was £760k; times that by 12 you get £9.1m (17% more) and you would assume the profit margin would improve as the cost of sale must be mostly fixed with little variable.

If you take the dec-13 forecast sales of £921k and multiply by 12 = £11.05m 40% more! Thats an extra £3.25m revenue with surely a very low cost addition but for sake of prudence lets keep the profit margin the same the EPS will be 40% more than the forecast - so the broker forecast will go from £1.30 to £1.80 and assumes no growth for the whole of 2014.

This share is a bargain - im off to have my silver fillings removed so i can buy more.

[tradesense] 04/12/2013 17:10

they have been very conservative in their forecast and leave considerable scope for earnings upgrade Company already profitable and they also have only 23 million shares in issue (majority in safe hands) Some comparison is made in note with Bango ref valuation . Bango is valued at £65 million apparently and that would be a reasonable figure to aspire to next year imho . That would be circa £2.85 Also if you read note carefully then the SYQ business model is very unique . not too much upfront cost and company reaches profitability very quickly OTT platform to be launched this month in UK . this is in addition to their telco partnerships .

[tradesense] 04/12/2013 17:00

30pete spot on from Allenby note today we feel that there is substantial earnings upside potential in excess of our current forecasts.

[30pete] 04/12/2013 16:58

The more i look at this the more it looks undervalued. the Broker statement (post 4 above) says PE 15 so £1.30 target price. The PE is maybe lower than some might give it compared to its peers but lets stick with that. What looks really conservative is the revenue growth used for the 2013 and 2014 forecasts.

On page 25 of the document in post 15 there is a graph of revenues for this year. On page 24 there is a graph of "transactions" if you divide one by the other you get the rough cost of a transaction (a subscriber) - for the last 3 months it is approx £0.73. using this you can work out the transaction growth Allenby used for Nov-13 (9% month on month) and Dec-13 (12% month on month) if you look at the actual month on month growth for Jun-13 23%, Jul-13 134%, Aug 40%, Sep-13 74% Oct 24%. its way too conservative. so i reckon the revenues for 2014 will be significantly up lifted at the year end. and sticking with a P/E of 15 it will put the target closer to £2.

Thoughts?

[tradesense] 04/12/2013 16:53

imran Ahmed no longer runs Allemby

[awesometactics] 04/12/2013 16:34

A 5k buyer sucking up shares right now, 83 p paid, onwards and upwards and i'm expecting something special in the next few days.

Some very Intense trading towards the end of the session and 83.99 p paid and as i said the share price ends the day on a high.

[awesometactics] 04/12/2013 16:32

Some good buys coming through now all above 80 P and as expected today has been a very solid start but i think the next few days could be very Interesting indeed.

[dewtrader] 04/12/2013 16:30

Allenby = Hoodless brennan

Wont touch it with yours mate

[awesometactics] 04/12/2013 16:29

Yes a very reputable source you've posted there! LOL if you haven't got anything positive to say at least don't just post any old blog and pass it off as legitimate high quality press.

[dewtrader] 04/12/2013 16:14

Been offered a line of stock well below the mid. Avoid. Thanks.

Interesting comment re the brokers
hxxp://scotslawthoughts.wordpress.com/2012/10/19/imran-ahmad-of-rangers-the-portfolio-of-his-former-co-allenby-capital-by-100bjd/

[awesometactics] 04/12/2013 16:10

Well its really starting to tick up now, 80 p just paid so that could be the start of a nice long journey northwards. Anyone on the sidelines giving this thought might have to act sooner rather than later.

[30pete] 04/12/2013 16:09

This is an essential read to new investors.

hxxp://www.allenbycapital.com/research/syqic.html

[awesometactics] 04/12/2013 15:55

Here come the buys, 78.70 p paid and it seems like we could end the day on highs! as expected some decent buys today and a very decent margin of safety at these prices.

[tradesense] 04/12/2013 15:18

we feel that there is substantial earnings upside potential in excess of our current forecasts.

[awesometactics] 04/12/2013 15:17

Biggest Bill- yes its possible that those figures are conservative but even so the share price is way undervalued and offers a great potential especially given they are are profitable and have been exponentially growing. This looks like a very tidy growth play IMHO.

[tradesense] 04/12/2013 15:16

value at 130pWith 10 months of the year complete we are confident in our 2013 forecasts and feel it is appropriate to look to our 2014 forecasts for a basis of valuing SyQic. That said, given that the Yoonic product was only launched in June of this year, the Company is yet to launch the fully OTT version of its products and that the market is experiencing rapid growth, we feel that there is substantial earnings upside potential in excess of our current forecasts. We gain further comfort that the revenue share business model ensures that even in periods of reduced revenues the Company has operated profitably.SyQic operates in a nascent but rapidly growing industry but it has established itself as a potential major player given that it has the key ingredients for success, namely quality content, delivery technology and an attractive price point for consumers. The Company is producing steadily increasing profitability and is on the verge of launching an OTT offering that has the potential for producing blue sky returns. As such, we think that it is not too demanding to expect the Company to trade on a 2014 PE Ratio of 15x (rather than the current 7.1x). A 15x 2014 valuation would imply a fair value for SyQic of 130p