Syqic Share Discussion Threads

[aishah] 23/5/2014 13:38

I'll keep topping up as and when.

[dasv] 23/5/2014 12:57

good note - thanks.

[aishah] 22/5/2014 12:12

Allenby note out:
"At current levels we think the market is essentially assuming that the Company will never receive any of the payments due to it under the receivables plan - despite the fact that the Conpmany has received in full all of the last 11 payments. For 2014 we forecast top line growth of 66% and on our revised earnings we anticipate underlying PAT growth of over 200% to £1.8m. At 49.5p the Company is trading on just 6.4x 2014 earnings"

[aishah] 21/5/2014 09:51

I've been adding here. PSR, PEG, Cash, treament of R&D all look good imo. dyor

[death by donut] 21/5/2014 09:38

Agreed , out now , don't want to undo my efforts of the last 3 yrs on a dopey punt. Will stick to larger caps like I've been doing . Managed just over 12% a year over the last 3 yrs , which ain't bad for a bloke who works on building sites.

Cheers

DbD

[dasv] 21/5/2014 09:35

I wrote this on SHA. FWIW I think the fundamentals will ultimately support the share price in the absence of technicals (chart support) due to this being a recent IPO.

(I have a holding here and will consider adding).

--

SYQ - (mobile TV for middle east, south asian and south east asian communities).

Below IPO price and then some.

However I think this company is supported by actual fundamentals (I know rare for a tech IPO).

AIM costs skewed 2013 profit downwards by -£471k. Taking costs of IPO out of the figures, the valuation is far from demanding:-

Revenue £4.7m, Profit would have been £571k.

That's a trailing PE of approx 17 (edit)

2014 forecast figures are PE of 5.7 on £7.8m (2.18m profit).

2014 PEG (PE/EPS growth) is 0.0 (135% EPS growth forecast on 2013) (sub 0.6 PEG is growth at a v. cheap price, sub 1.0 is growth at a reasonable price)

2015 forecast figures are PE of 3.4 on 11m revenue (3.74m profit).

2015 PEG is 0.1 (67% EPS growth forecast on 2014)


Revenue around christmas is seasonally higher. Revenue in first 3 months of 2014 (unaudited) was £2m. "This period is marginally below the levels of revenue earned in the fourth quarter in 2013." but if seasonality is taken into consideration, this is not a worry as Q4 2014 revenue will (all things being equal) more than compensate.

"The Group has recently launched an international OTT service for the Bangladeshi community in the UK and Malaysia, with Singapore and the Middle East to follow. The Filipino and other migrant content launches are planned in the near term for the UK, Europe, the Middle East and the Far East."


However assuming none of these launches go ahead and there is no christmas seasonality, the group will still do £8m revenue in 2014.

The group had 2013 admin costs of 1.5m, and no debt.

High trade receivables are due to one customer in Indonesia who is sticking to a payment plan to repay debt by 2016.

"Trade receivables increased to £3.7 million from £2.3 million in 2012. Of this amount £3.3 million is owed by one customer with which the Group has agreed a repayment plan under which the full amount will be repaid in monthly instalments by June 2016."

Some further detail on this payment plan in the results:-

"SCSB has agreed a payment plan with the foreign customer. This payment plan agreement, dated 28 March 2014, provides for RM3,284,822 (equivalent to £604,407) to be paid in the first six months of 2014, followed by RM3,294,705 (equivalent to £606,226) in the second half of the year, i.e. a total of RM6,579,527 (equivalent to £1,210,633) by December 2014. In 2015, RM8,643,390 (equivalent to £1,590,384) of scheduled payments are due in monthly instalments. In 2016, six monthly payments totaling RM4,251,717 (equivalent to £782,316) are to be made, with a final payment to settle the debt in full in June 2016. As the debt is not due to be fully repaid until June 2016, the value of the amount receivable has been re-valued by £289,000 (RM1,570,000) at a discount rate of 6.6% to reflect the time value of money."

The company has approx £1m capital and will be receiving a further £1.2m in back pay from a single customer, plus approx £8m revenue with other trade receivables payable between 30-90 days.

On top of all this, development costs have been fully expensed and not amortised (again rare for a tech/software) type company.

Downsides:-

~It's a very small company competing in potentially a large market. It's trying to do the right thing - partnering with universities etc. but is it over-stretching?
~The web experience is not as slick as it should be. However it might be good enough for now.
~Yoonic: The payment experience could be improved with paypal/credit card integration as well as pre-payed scratch cards (the only payment method I found on the site).
~Bad share market for tech AIM and recent IPO's as we well know. share price could drift or decline further. Illiquid with big spread


Competitors
~Youtube - uploads of some shows are available on youtube for free. Yoonic is a pay as you go model (pay per week I think)
~Mivo.com (beta) - online TV typically indonesian. Suffers from lack of bandwidth. (e.g. my wife and I tried it last night - it didn't work. Free service. Yoonic offers movies as well as live and catch-up TV).

[mrmomentumt] 21/5/2014 09:31

Investors clearly lost a lot of confidence here and exiting their positions which is lowering the price. With no chart support, difficult to see where the bottom will be. If you're a holder, I would seriously consider whether its worth keeping your position. If it bottoms out at and starts to rise, you can always buy back in lower. Better to be on the upward curve rather than downward spiral imo.

[death by donut] 21/5/2014 09:12

MMs taking out lower and lower stops?

DbD

[death by donut] 20/5/2014 14:45

Hmmm, dumped on from a great height here :-/

DbD

[geraldus] 15/5/2014 20:32

Some good posts today.Always a very volatile stock - will hold.

[dasv] 15/5/2014 12:23

yeah but they also said Q4 revenue will be consistently higher year on year because of seasonality (christmas season).

[biggest bill] 15/5/2014 11:13

I have sold out completely this morning. The first quarter revenue is 20% below the revenue for the previous quarter; this is pretty disappointing for what is supposedly a growth share. Best of luck for everybody still holding.

[aishah] 15/5/2014 10:04

I have added here today.

[snowydays] 15/5/2014 10:03

Let's see what comes out of the analysts meeting today.

When the full accounts are looked at the results seem ok. First quarter revenues of £2m for 2014 suggest that the Allenby prediction of £7.8m revenue for the full year will be easily beaten.

[the shuffle man] 15/5/2014 09:19

Didnt think these would drop below the issue price. Looks like some people getting out at any price in an illiquid market is pushing this down. If the cashflow is fine then they look cheap. Would be good to see some director buying.

[dasv] 15/5/2014 09:13

I too didn't see full RNS in AIM.

investegate version is complete:-



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Diluted EPS excluding one-off AIM transaction costs: 2.91p


So trailing PE 20 (perfectly reasonable considering growth prospects) would be about 60p.

Growth could be v. strong considering how many new migrant verticals are in the pipeline so PE > 20 could well be possible.


---
Adjusted EPS excluding AIM transaction costs - Basic (pence) - 3.63

Owed 1.5m - this seems mostly to have been sorted out - trade receivable from indonesian payment laggard will be sorted by 2016.

Scratch card payment is a good call for migrant demographic. Think mobile/pay as you go in EM markets.

£1m in the bank but aggressive R&D spend by the sounds of it.

I'd like a break down of Other payables and accruals as these are relatively high against cash in the bank.

[the shuffle man] 15/5/2014 08:55

I cant see the full detailed results on the ADVFN news feed. Its seems to stop after the chairmans statement. Does anyone else have this problem.

Got the full results from InvestEgate.

[62rick] 15/5/2014 08:43

For 2013 about 80% of turnover and over 90% of operating profit came in the second half. Revenues are running at £2 million a quarter and would hope should grow!

Some of the figures are disappointing and there are challenges, in particular will the new services and marketing spend be successful. I'm a little concerned at their focus on scratch card as a payment method, I'm surprised this is the most effective method and question if it restricts them to a poorer demographic, however I'm sure they know better than I!

Even maintaining the current levels they should achieve over £8 million turnover and over £1 million operating profit this year. In my view fairly priced until we see how business develops this year.

[snowydays] 15/5/2014 08:23

They have not provided any key figures in these results. Very annoying.

[stegrego] 15/5/2014 08:03

Cash flow is more of an issue. No one seems to pay them. Working capital could be a problem unless they drag in some cash.

Revenue will probably more than double this year so the higher cost base won't matter that much.

Overall not great though and plenty that could go wrong. Will have to see what the interims are like.

Out for now as could suffer quite badly.

[snowydays] 15/5/2014 07:56

Awful set of results. So bad they do not even include key metrics such as eps or EBITDA. It's clear profitability has collapsed. Expect the shareprice to follow today.

[the shuffle man] 13/5/2014 14:35

Lets hope the results are good. Recent share price movement doesnt suggest this.

GLA

[death by donut] 13/5/2014 14:19

In for a small punt in my SIPP , been struggling to find any value anywhere else.

DbD

[geraldus] 05/5/2014 17:06

Hoping this will be building up a fair head of steam for the results next week,have high expectations going forward.