Synthomer Share Discussion Threads

[nomolos1] 30/1/2024 07:35

In line trading statement

[wigwammer] 23/1/2024 14:28

Best near term hope is the dominant Malaysian shareholder sees long term value, and makes an attractive bid.

[wigwammer] 23/1/2024 14:26

They have spent £1.4bn on acquisitions over the last 5 years. Yet the current enterprise value is now £0.8bn... And that's before considering the legacy £1Bn+ revenue business and adding that in. At least optically, it looks incredible value, but what a mess management have made of things. Not true to say it is an all new team - the Chair for example, has been there through the whole mess, and even received a nice pay rise last year.

[babbler] 23/1/2024 14:07

Someone took over 500k shares this morning.

[darrin1471] 23/1/2024 13:39

123.0 554716 09:46:08
121.24 86467 10:33:48
121.24 39549 10:33:53
121.24 39549 10:40:41
121.24 39549 10:40:41
121.24 86467 10:40:47

You may be right but the volume traded above does not appear to warrant the recent fall from 170p.

[lawson27] 23/1/2024 13:00

Taken a punt here, @130, Bot's accumulating, double the average volume, risky, i know!

[1knocker] 22/1/2024 18:12

There is still a decent business there, but the company had its head in the sand too long and by the time it finally accepted that it had no choice but to raise more capital to strengthen the balance sheet, it could not raise enough. Even with the shareholders diluted almost out of existence the debt remains too high.

A takeover at a fire sale price is probably the best we can hope for. No purchaser will pay much for the shares because of the weight of debt, but if the company goes into administration and the business is sold clear of the debt, we shall see nothing for our shares.

Best mentally to write Synthomer off, and regard anything shareholders salvage from the wreck as a bonus.

[blackhorse23] 22/1/2024 13:11

Money moved to GNC & APH

[pottsypotts] 22/1/2024 12:43

Crikey couldn't have been more wrong, relentless at the moment this drop

[vulgaris] 22/1/2024 10:51

'Hang' is the operative word, Meijiman. All of them. Pour encourager les autres.

[meijiman] 22/1/2024 10:21

The management and Directors should hang their heads in shame. Pitiful and pathetic are some of the milder words to describe this omnishambles. Credulous and foolish people in charge making disastrous decisions. You might have thought old man Catto and the Malaysian would have some sort of grip but sadly not.

[pottsypotts] 19/1/2024 13:11

Good turn to positive today could this finally be the day when SYNT finds a base

[1knocker] 16/1/2024 13:40

Fortunately my holding was small. Less happily, even the dealing charges to sell it now would be significant in relation to the sale proceeds! The only reason to sell would be to clean up the portfolio, removing a holding on which I will never see my money back..

As to 'rising as dramatically as it fell', if it doubled or even quadrupled from here I would still be well in the red zone.

Those who subscribed for more shares must be feeling pretty sick.

Is there any hope of a takeover, i wonder? There is a viable business there, but in the present climate I guess no purchaser would fancy taking on the debt.

[my retirement fund] 15/1/2024 09:40

Sub £1 this week ?

[tuftymatt] 12/1/2024 15:19

"Synthomer shares should jump - perhaps as drastically as they have fallen."

Anyone who has got seriously burned here want to throw their own money behind that statement from Berenberg?

I for one wont be.

[libertine] 12/1/2024 09:38

Berenberg cuts Synthomer price target to 320 (400) pence - 'buy' ?????????

Berenberg lowers target price on Synthomer

Fri, 12th Jan 2024 10:05
Analysts at Berenberg lowered their target price on chemicals business Synthomer from 400.0p to 320.0p on Friday as it lowered its operating profit expectations for 2023-25.

Berenberg stated that cyclical stocks with high indebtedness "do not put investors at ease", noting that the more than 80% decline in Synthomer shares over the last 12 months was "a case in point". However, the German bank said it was "more optimistic".

"The firm has a leverage problem, although not a liquidity issue. Last year's £276.0m rights issue has bought time to recover," said Berenberg. "Construction market headwinds mean that the company will, in our view, show minimal progress in organically cutting its absolute net debt pile, even allowing for self-help."

Berenberg, which reiterated its 'buy' rating on the stock, noted that the moment a cyclical recovery, fast or slow, materialises, Synthomer shares should jump - perhaps as drastically as they have fallen.

"We have reduced our operating profit forecasts by a high-single-digit percentage on average for 2023-25, mainly reflecting lower construction-linked margins and volumes. Shares trade on 2025 price-to-earnings ratio of 4.2x, compared to long-run average of around 11.0x. Our price target would imply circa 9.0x," added Berenberg.

[last of the mohicans] 11/1/2024 13:58

darrin1471,


They allowed the purchase to go through & took on massive debt, without covering it.

They could have done a share placing at the time to dramatically reduce the level of debt they would have. Or issued a £500M debt bond for say 5 or 7 years, To ensure they had time to bed everything in etc. Instead of being totally exposed.

All they did was hedge the cash they had into $ (which was rational)

LOTM

[darrin1471] 11/1/2024 13:36

LOTM "They allowed the £1B purchase to go ahead without proper financing to be in place at the time. A criminal decision."

At the time of the acquisition (28/10/2021) BofE rates were 0.1%, we were exiting covid and the SYNT share price was near all time highs.

Congratulations to all of those who had a crystal ball in 2021 and shorted SYNT.
The share price was not a sudden collapse but a long 2 year fall. There was plenty of opportunity to sell. Small investors either took their eye off the ball or stuck their heads in the sand.
I don't have a crystal ball but today the SYNT mkt cap looks good value, higher than average risk with higher than average potential reward.
I still hold no position long or short in SYNT.

[nomolos1] 11/1/2024 13:10

Apologies - I used the ADVFN tracker which said 750m m/c Wow

[last of the mohicans] 11/1/2024 11:53

nomolos1,

Sadly the maths is right.

The market cap is now all of £256M with 163.57M shares in issue.

LOTM

[nomolos1] 11/1/2024 11:03

I'd check your maths - not at 8p pre consolidation - still 800m mkt cap

[last of the mohicans] 11/1/2024 10:34

Value destruction here has been incredible.

Is a bit of an understatement!

The share price is currently under 8p (pre consolidation) & before that it had been over £5.

So some poor souls have lost over 98% of there money.

I was in at £3 (pre consolidation) so the share price needs to go to £60 to break even, which simply isn't going to happen.

I've been trading it for several months & mad a decent sum from it, to help bring down that break-even number.

GLA
LOTM

[nomolos1] 11/1/2024 08:43

As a former holder, took some as a trade for the retest of the 180 support range - but the value destruction here has been incredible.