Syncona Share Discussion Threads

[tiger blue] 13/8/2020 15:27

The nav to end June (210.7p) was announced in the quarterly update on 10th August, since when the Freeline IPO brought a further uplift.
The main bit of the IPO (8.8m shares) is done and dusted, the only bit outstanding is the option as is common in the US for the brokers to subscribe for up to a further 1.3m shares, and they have 30 days from 6th August. As this is also at $18, not much incentive for buyers to pay this with the price now a bit below, though they did trade over $21 on the first day so they may have drawn down a few more then.

[greygrey] 13/8/2020 15:07

Ok many thanks Tiger Blue. I had thought NAV was updated quarterly and last was March but I must be mistaken. Do you know when the Freeline IPO closes by the way.

[tiger blue] 13/8/2020 12:15

Thank you Greygrey. Having just given their quarterly update, Syncona won't issue another regular update on nav until the interim results to end Sept which last year came out on 21st November, so until then it's manual calculations based on the quoted stocks, exchange rates etc. The only exception would be where they do another funding round, when they will state the individual uplift (hopefully an uplift!) to their nav for the relevant company.

[greygrey] 13/8/2020 11:59

Very helpful analysis. Th NAV update seems long overdue - any idea when it will be made. Also I guess the Freeline IPO has closed? so there should be an announcement about that soon. The price seems very stuck despite lots of positive news.

[tiger blue] 13/8/2020 10:54

A few stats based on last night's close and the recent quarterly update:

I estimate current nav at just over 221p, with cash of 108.25p now outweighed by the life science portfolio at 113p.

As I forecast in February Freeline has now overtaken Autolus as the largest portfolio company, representing 37.6p per share vs Autolus 31.8p. Gyroscope and Achilles are both c 11p, and with the progress they are making and likely uplifts at future funding rounds the life sciences portfolio will become more diversified and inherently less risky when it is no longer dominated by one or two businesses. Swan Bio represents 5.2p and the CRT Pioneer Fund 6.3p, the remaining investments are c 10p per share. The quoted nav as usual looks understated, with so many investments still held at cost.

With further funding rounds and the expected new investment in the macrophage cell therapy opportunity, there should also be less negative broker comment on the 'cash drag', though imho a strong capital base is reassuring and helps me sleep sounder in these incredibly difficult times.

[brexitplus] 13/8/2020 08:04

Gyroscope Therapeutics Announces Initiation of Phase II Programme Evaluating its Investigational Gene Therapy, GT005, for Dry Age-Related Macular Degeneration

[greygrey] 11/8/2020 15:07

This uplift seems very logical unless the premium to NAV reduces. I guess Freeline closes today although seems stuck at 16.50 ie below the 18 at which it was priced. I guess we’ll see in the next day or so.

[brexitplus] 10/8/2020 07:12

Excellent update today.

“Life science portfolio increases in value by 35% since year end:

-- Net assets of GBP1,414.9 million, 210.7 p per share, a NAV return of 13.5 per cent in the period

-- Life science portfolio valued at GBP677.0 million as at 30 June 2020, a return of 35.1 per cent in the period, with performance driven by the increase in the Autolus Therapeutics (Autolus) share price and the write-up of Freeline Therapeutics (Freeline) in its recent Series C financing

-- Capital base of GBP737.9 million as at 30 June 2020; GBP29.2 million of capital deployed in the quarter

Strong clinical progress with significant data generation and new programmes initiated.”

[greygrey] 07/8/2020 17:30

When are we due a new NAV?

[luxaeterna1] 07/8/2020 08:59

I am hopeful the resistance will shift up 15p, so the new upper resistance should be about 285p imminently.

[ltinvestor] 07/8/2020 07:37

Syncona most certainly deliver...

[luxaeterna1] 07/8/2020 07:30

Well there we go. Freeline IPO active and on the market today.

Technically a £60m bump in NAV too, so perhaps a ~10p rise in Syncona MCAP. Good times

[tiger blue] 06/8/2020 14:43

Listened in to the conference call for AUTL. It is a competitive landscape but they clearly feel they have good potential for differentiated products, and compared to the competition the AUTL programs are demonstrating much lower toxicity so are better tolerated by patients with compromised immune systems.

[luxaeterna1] 06/8/2020 13:42

Nice financial and operational progress today from AUTO. Sounding more and more positive. 1st CAR-T trial allowing the patient to go home?!

[acuere] 05/8/2020 10:28

For those who subscribe to such theories, there was the classic 1 share trade yesterday pm. The UT trade of 50k plus at highest price of the day at close would suggest supply not meeting demand atm.

[brexitplus] 04/8/2020 13:47

Autolus announces changes to its Board and Management Team
Autolus Therapeutics plc (Nasdaq: AUTL), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing next-generation programmed T cell therapies, today announced the appointment of Dr. Jay T Backstrom to its Board of Directors, effective August 1, 2020.Dr. Backstrom currently serves as EVP, Head of Research & Development at Acceleron Pharma Inc (Acceleron) and prior to that served as Chief Medical Officer and Head of Regulatory Affairs at Celgene Corporation. Additionally, the Company announced that Dr. Nushmia Khokhar has been promoted to Senior Vice President, Clinical Development, and will take over the medical leadership role at Autolus. Dr. Khokhar is a board-certified oncologist with extensive early and late stage clinical development experience, having led several successful registration trials within the industry including the global daratumumab program at Janssen Oncology. Dr. Vijay Peddareddigari, Senior Vice President, Chief Medical Officer, is leaving the Company to return to the US.

[brexitplus] 04/8/2020 10:58

Gyroscope Announces Appointment of Leaders in Retinal Disease, Gene Therapy and the Complement System to its Clinical and Scientific Advisory Boards
Gyroscope Therapeutics Limited, a clinical-stage retinal gene therapy company, today announced the appointment of leading experts in retinal disease, gene therapy and the complement system to its Clinical and Scientific Advisory Boards. The newly appointed boards will help guide the development of the company's lead investigational gene therapy, GT005, a one-time therapy being developed to potentially slow the progression of dry age-related macular degeneration (AMD), as well as novel gene therapy delivery systems and additional pipeline candidates.

[luxaeterna1] 04/8/2020 10:29

Clearly the Adult ALL AUTO1 trial is key for the future. So far, the data seems promising and would suggest an early win, that should provide strong de-risking and tempt the risk-adverse side of the market into investment. With a functioning product, the basic concepts of the company will be validated, and while I am sure there will be a few disappointments along the way (there are 10-20 trials planned as far as I can tell), I suspect there will be 5+ successful trials.

What is really interesting though, is whether AUTO is one of those shares that just keeps growing? Imagine the potential size in 2026..?

[chessman2] 04/8/2020 09:35

The Syncona holdings all show good steady growth and pharmaceuticals are a key place to be not just for the present but the future as well.

More investors both private and institutional are becoming interested in the portfolio.

[acuere] 03/8/2020 18:56

Mizuho have $24 target and JPMorgan have $25 target for Autolus. All far north of current share price
Hopefully demand for Freeline will also boost the value of Syncona holding.

Frontier IP also rising today, so hopefully investors realising the value of these pharma portfolio companies.

[luxaeterna1] 23/7/2020 13:07

Should we interpret Suntrust broker target as a casual genuine signal, or simply an implication that suntrust are about to issue equity for Autolus?

[ltinvestor] 23/7/2020 09:20

SunTrust initiated coverage of Autolus with a $38 PT..

[greygrey] 21/7/2020 22:36

Thanks, yes that may be true. Autolus dropped 8% today which is also a worry so hard to know what really caused this volatility today.

[tiger blue] 21/7/2020 21:35

I'm not concerned long term given the quality of the data from Freeline to date, though given the IPO registration the brokers will be taking soundings from institutions ahead of the float and possibly the price people are prepared to pay in the issue is lower than hoped for. Tech seems to be all people are interested in at present, perhaps they should remember that 'tech' also appears in biotech!

[greygrey] 21/7/2020 17:43

Yes very strange. Surely the Freeline IPO is good news so what on Earth happened today?