Syncona Share Discussion Threads

[1seanshare] 27/6/2019 23:04

All very helpful. Thanks. Still frustrated, but I'm a little clearer!

[luxaeterna1] 27/6/2019 21:27

Also, ffs a scrip dividend is about as useful as a chocolate teapot. May as well not bother. A very select group may find tax benefits and to everyone else its a dividend-that's-not-a-dividend.

[luxaeterna1] 27/6/2019 21:25

I don't think the Woodford connection to Autl has done much good this week, you'd assume he might be trying to offload his Autolus shares and sync are perhaps obvious buyers, it may even have driven 1 of the disposals IMO, he has been hounded like a dog at times (rightly or wrongly).

You cannot argue with SYNCs record so far, another few months and Freeline will also be in the clinic with multiple programmes. Slightly sad to see BED go today, another two years and could have been double the price. Plenty to invest in though and great outlook (clearly some failures along the line should be factored in).

[tiger blue] 27/6/2019 19:03

Thanks mad foetus. SYNC is fairly unique in having the capital pool available and the investor access. The problem with private equity approach is that their time horizon is generally too short, which is why Syncona/Wellcome chose to partner with BACIT in the first place to access the deep pool of capital. It all started with a conversation with Tom Henderson of BACIT and the scientists complaining that private equity was not 'patient capital' (unfortunate name these days!). The UK is just as good as the US for scientific innovation (DNA etc) but historically because PE was so short term we have ended selling early to the Americans who make the real profits. The merger of SYNC & BACIT was meant to address that.

[mad foetus] 27/6/2019 18:49

Good post Tiger, but also shows why the sort of investments SYNC makes are really better suited to a private equity limited partnership fund where investors can be tapped for commitments when needed. But in that event normal investors would be excluded.

[tiger blue] 27/6/2019 18:41

1seanshare,

my 10p's worth (I was 35 years in the market so know a bit about how things operate) there are 2 main factors at work here:

1 Sync was founded on the basis of long term holds - start with the science, prove it, take it to market and hold for the profits. They have now sold two positions perhaps earlier than people expected, so some have questioned if they are sticking to their stated modus operandi.

2 Cash drag - probably the main factor here. Brokers don't like to sit on cash and they don't like their companies to sit on cash. Analysts are saying that SYNC has too much cash sitting there doing nothing, ie acting as a 'drag' on the share price and they now have c £1 billion, but only projecting investing at the rate of £100-200 million per annum.

Some are also worried that the Wellcome Trust holding is an overhang on the share price - because they reduced the position they must want to sell the rest. I'm not so concerned now they have got their original investment back.

I am more relaxed than the market as I would rather they sat on the cash until they have a decent reason to invest it, and so far they have proved very savvy at generating a very high IRR on their investments. Gene therapy market potential is vast, and they are founding new companies more quickly now, which will need proper investment when the time is right, for which they have the war chest. They can also easily afford to increase the Autolus holding if Mr Woodford can be persuaded to sell.

[1seanshare] 27/6/2019 17:12

Can the more share savvy of us help explain why SYNC seems to be on a long continuous downward trend but all the news (and actions) seems to be positive? I really don't understand it! Cashed out successfully with two companies now, good news coming from other holdings, etc. Am I alone on being perplexed?

[davemac3] 27/6/2019 16:26

good news on several fronts recently yet the share price is down

[luxaeterna1] 27/6/2019 15:45

Why no RNS for BED sale?

[kohsamui] 27/6/2019 11:00

All the unquoted companies are value at cost - except Blue Earth- I believe.

[tiger blue] 27/6/2019 10:35

Shuffleman,

re official nav, probably not as last reported nav did not reflect recent fall in Autolus (24p per share) but as previous post all other companies still in the books at cost, so you can factor in something extra for those.

[tiger blue] 27/6/2019 10:30

I agree too. I think they have too much cash if anything so are ready to take all or part of the Autolus stake if it becomes available. I am told from broker meeting that they have bid Woodford for his stock but have been rebuffed. Woodford may yet crack and if his contract is terminated the new broom may be open to offers. Either way Autolus is cheap and I have put a limit order in to buy some.

Market not giving SYNC credit for companies founded and still in at cost despite clinical progress. All I hear is cash drag and Wellcome stock overhang. On the former they have a superb track record in creating value from cash. On the latter I am sure Wellcome may reduce over time into strength, but I think they have achieved their primary and prudent objective as Charity trustees, to more than recoup the £100m they originally invested to found Syncona, and that the pressure is off now.

[the shuffle man] 27/6/2019 10:21

Are the shares now trading at a discount to NAV.

[ltinvestor] 27/6/2019 08:19

I agree..as the trials progress and data is positive which it should be then large pharma will bid.Great company with outstanding technology

[brexitplus] 27/6/2019 08:15

Well done. I have it only in Syncona. I can see it being bought in the not too distant future.

[ltinvestor] 27/6/2019 08:11

I have been accumulating Autolus around the $16 mark.Well down from the raise at $24...

[brexitplus] 27/6/2019 07:49

Could do. It’s a bargain price. Otherwise, based on guidance, it would take about 5 years to invest.

Martin Murphy said

“Syncona looks forward to redeploying the proceeds to fund both our growing portfolio companies as they scale and exciting new opportunities as they emerge, ultimately with the goal of bringing more transformational products to patients."

[ltinvestor] 27/6/2019 07:47

Should buy Woodfords stake in Autolus!!!

[brexitplus] 27/6/2019 07:46

After this Syncona will have about £1 billion in the kitty. It can’t spend that much quickly. What will it do now?

[brexitplus] 27/6/2019 07:33

Sale of Blue Earth Diagnostics to Bracco Imaging

27 June 2019

· Blue Earth Diagnostics has agreed to be acquired by Bracco Imaging for $450 million (£354.3 million)[1] plus closing adjustment estimated at $25 million (£19.7 million)[2]



· Syncona will receive net proceeds of £337 million[3] for its 89 per cent holding; a 10.0x multiple, including prior distributions,[4] on original investment of £35.3 million and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 87 per cent[5]



· These proceeds represent an uplift of £69.8 million (10.4p per share) to Syncona's holding value of £267.5 million[6]

[ltinvestor] 27/6/2019 07:30

Woodford should have just bought shares in Syncona!!Another wonderful deal...

[tiger blue] 26/6/2019 15:39

hi luxaerterna1

ref my earlier post glioma mkt only around 1/7th the size of the prostate imaging mkt according to results Q&A, though this might increase modestly due to higher rate of repeat imaging in glioma

Tiger

[luxaeterna1] 26/6/2019 15:18

Encouraging news on Glioma for Blue Earth diagnostics - I assume that a "100% detection rate" and "sensitivity" is very good news. Would the market for glioma be of a similar size to the prostate market?

So much newsflow this year. Looking forward to AUTL and Freeline trial data later this year.

[masurenguy] 26/6/2019 14:33

Premium over NAV is now only 4.2% - the lowest for sometime !

[brexitplus] 26/6/2019 14:01

─ Presented at Society of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging (SNMMI) Annual Meeting ─ Blue Earth Diagnostics, a molecular imaging diagnostics company, today announced results from a retrospective, observational analysis evaluating the safety and effectiveness of 18F-fluciclovine in the detection of recurrent gliomas in adults, using data from multiple research sites. The primary aim was to determine the Positive Predictive Value (PPV) of 18F-fluciclovine PET to detect glioma in comparison to a histopathological truth standard. Results demonstrated that among the patients with recurrent glioma (n=17), 18F-fluciclovine PET demonstrated a PPV of 88.2%, a detection rate of 100% and sensitivity of 100%. No adverse events related to 18F-fluciclovine were reported in the study. 18F-fluciclovine is a synthetic amino acid labeled with the radioisotope F 18, enabling PET imaging which may help visualize the increased amino acid transport that occurs in malignant brain tumors such as glioma.
Results of the study were announced in an oral presentation, “Safety and effectiveness of 18F-fluciclovine PET in adults with recurrent glioma: a retrospective observational study,” by Tore Bach-Gansmo, MD, PhD, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway, at the Society of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging (SNMMI) Annual Meeting, June 22 – 26, 2019 in Anaheim, Ca.

“We are pleased to share results from this retrospective study of 18F-fluciclovine PET imaging of recurrent adult glioma with the nuclear medicine community at SNMMI,” said Jonathan Allis, D. Phil., CEO of Blue Earth Diagnostics. “Clinical investigations such as this can help to inform the development of innovative PET imaging agents to address important unmet medical needs.”

“Glioma is a serious and potentially life-threatening disease, accounting for 80% of all malignant primary brain tumors,” said Peter Gardiner, MB ChB, MRCP, FFPM, CMO of Blue Earth Diagnostics. “The ability to identify the location and extent of a tumor is important in planning appropriate treatment for patients, in both initial diagnosis and subsequent monitoring for recurrence.”



In another oral presentation at SNMMI, “Evaluation of glioma tumor volume with 18F-fluciclovine positron emission tomography interpreted in combination with MRI, compared with MRI alone: Results from a prospective phase 3 blinded image evaluation,” Matthew Miller, PhD, of Blue Earth Diagnostics, presented results from another of the company’s clinical trials. The study, BED006, was a prospective, blinded image evaluation that examined the diagnostic performance of 18F-fluciclovine PET imaging, in conjunction with various types of MRI, for imaging of suspected glioma when interpreted by readers unfamiliar with 18F-fluciclovine PET. Results indicated a Positive Predictive Value (PPV) of more than 90% (n=35) for each of the three blinded readers and consistent image interpretation across these readers. In addition, 18F-fluciclovine PET with MRI (CE-T1W MRI) identified additional regions suspicious for glioma that CE-T1W MRI alone was unable to identify, which subsequent biopsies confirmed as malignant. To date, the safety profile of 18F-fluciclovine PET imaging in patients with glioma appears to be consistent with that summarized in current Axumin® U.S. prescribing information.



About the Retrospective Observational Study in Adults with Glioma (BED008)

Study BED008 was a retrospective observational study of 18F-fluciclovine PET that was designed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of 18F-fluciclovine PET in the detection or recurrent gliomas in adults. It analyzed results from three clinical sites (Emory University, Atlanta, Ga., Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY; and under a compassionate use program at Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway). The primary objective of the study was to determine the Positive Predictive Value (PPV) of 18F-fluciclovine PET to detect glioma in comparison to a histopathological truth standard. Secondary objectives included determination of the detection rate, sensitivity, specificity, and negative predictive value (NPV). The study also aimed to evaluate adverse events in any patient who received 18F-fluciclovine.



A total of 82 adult patients received at least one injection of 18F-fluciclovine for the detection or primary or recurrent glioma and had had at least one histopathological report confirming the diagnosis of glioma. Only patients whose 18F-fluciclovine PET scan, MRI and histopathology assessment (positive or negative) occurred within 30 days of one another were included in analyses of diagnostic performance. Eighteen of the 82 scans met these criteria (1 scan in a patient with primary glioma and 17 scans in patients with recurrent disease). Among the 17 patients with recurrent glioma, 18F-fluciclovine showed a PPV of 88.2%, a detection rate of 100% and sensitivity of 100%. In patients with recurrent high-grade glioma (n = 12), the PPV, detection rate and sensitivity were 83.3%, 100% and 100%, respectively. In patients with recurrent low-grade glioma (n = 5) these were 100%, 100% and 100%, respectively. Specificity and NPV could not be calculated as no patients had a negative 18F-fluciclovine PET scan. In total, 3.7% (3/82) patients experienced at least one treatment emergent adverse event during the safety monitoring, none of which were considered related to 18F-fluciclovine.