Syncona Share Discussion Threads

[luxaeterna1] 07/3/2019 16:40

Sync are putting PR out in some newspapers indicating they are focussing on capital growth and not paying dividends from the Nightstar sale pot. They certainly have a warchest now - what do you think the money can be spent on? Arguably Autolus could be in line for a significant investment in production facilities from 2021 to 2030 (current pipeline of production facilities is about 7000 patients pa)

- SYNC own ~ 35% of AUTL. Freeline are also in the hyper-growth and could be conducting 3-4 trials in the next 2 years.

The cash pile maintains their position as a serious market player, especially in the gene therapy market which has great potential if executed well.

[tiger blue] 07/3/2019 13:07

Thoughts on Nightstar sale, share price reaction and dividend:

Lack of strength in the share price may seem odd given the large premium paid by Biogen for Nightstar. This is due to some surprise over an apparent change in strategy in not taking the product all the way to market, and the fact that Syncona already trade at a premium to nav, ie some of the expected upside was already factored in. There has also been some broker comment on 'cash drag', in that the proceeds will in the short term simply add to the cash pile and will not add value until further new investments are found.
For what it's worth I am happy to trust management's view that this was the appropriate exit, the Nightstar trials are not without risk, and I don't think the overall longer term approach has changed. I am also happy for them to carry excess cash to fund new projects, where they seem to have stepped up the pace lately, at least in terms of actually signing deals.

Dividend - much as I, like most private investors, appreciate some regular income I would be wary about expecting a dividend increase this year, in fact you may see the opposite. This is not from any position of weakness and they have made decent gains, but the life sciences sector they are increasingly in as the funds side is sold down traditionally seeks capital growth not income. If you are in any doubt I would refer you to their last annual statement:
“The Board will review the dividend policy over the next 12 months as Syncona moves further towards becoming predominantly invested in life science.”

As a now retired broker I know the company very well, having met them many times since supporting the original launch of BACIT at 100p, but couldn't comment before for obvious moral and compliance reasons with clients holding the stock. I have what any sensible person would deem far too big a percentage of my own assets in Syncona, but these are world class individuals in their field with early access to some of the best ideas coming out of the UK and beyond, and I think it has all the ingredients for continued success over the long term.

[brexitplus] 04/3/2019 16:03

New in from Syncona

“Autolus Therapeutics to Present New Data on AUTO1 at the American Association of Cancer Research (AACR) Annual Meeting 2019

Title: AUTO1, a novel fast off CD19CAR delivers durable remissions and prolonged CAR T cell persistence with low CRS or neurotoxicity in adult ALL“

[ltinvestor] 04/3/2019 13:22

Numis very close to the company

[brexitplus] 04/3/2019 13:14

Agreed. I’m not sure any brokers other than Northland Capital cover Syncona.

[ltinvestor] 04/3/2019 12:39

Anyway, this is a great company well under the radar and long may it continue!

[luxaeterna1] 04/3/2019 12:15

I am happy to consider new investments, the original plan was 15-20 startups so we've got the potential to fund 3-4 further investments. Having said that with £300m income this year we should increase the dividend, 4 to 6 pence would be pleasant (last year 2p on negative income, it would cost Syncona about £30m).

[brexitplus] 04/3/2019 12:15

Itinvestor

Agreed about the charitable donation. Currently it is only 0.3% of NAV. Upping to 0.5% or more wouldn’t be a hardship.

Re Nite, I imagine there are a host of good possible investments available. The share price had been pretty poor recently so perhaps taking the cash at a big premium and recycling it was the most sensible thing to do.

The share price hasn’t gone up much today, but I suppose the premium was built in.

[ltinvestor] 04/3/2019 11:59

BrexitP.I take your point but one or two percent divi is neither here nor there.I would rather they increased their annual charitable donation.I have to admit I am a little disappointed that Nite was sold even though I made 6 figures in 3 months...

[brexitplus] 04/3/2019 11:17

Itinvestor

My opinion, for what it’s worth, is that the small dividend makes no difference. There is a large pool of cash already waiting to be invested. The £255 million, due in Q2 2019, is an addition to that pool. The total pool, I think, will be much more than Syncona will be able to invest before the next sale, possibly BlueEarth.

[ltinvestor] 04/3/2019 11:08

I would prefer them to not pay a dividend but to reinvest the funds in existing or new ventures...

[brexitplus] 04/3/2019 09:36

Annuals not until June according to the financial calendar.

[luxaeterna1] 04/3/2019 09:35

Blue Earth earning £50m pa. Nightstar sale returning £255m. With ~670m shares in issue that's 45p per share earnings this year (ignoring other investments) - very good.

When do they announce this years dividend?

[brexitplus] 04/3/2019 09:09

BlueEarth

I see from a recent presentation BlueEarth, the third of the major “mature” investments along with Nightstar and Autolus is valued at 6.6x investment. I missed the following back in February

“Blue Earth Diagnostics, a leading molecular imaging diagnostics company, today announced that the first commercial production of Axumin® (fluciclovine (18F)) in Italy occurred recently, with the first Italian patients being dosed. Axumin is a novel molecular imaging agent approved in the European Union for use in PET imaging to detect and localize prostate cancer in men experiencing suspected recurrence based on elevated blood prostate specific antigen (PSA) levels after primary curative treatment.”

[mad foetus] 04/3/2019 08:58

Thanks lt and Brexit. I think biotech is a high risk area best left to specialists like sync. Picking winners is not easy for the layman, and I only bought NVCR on the chart, which is stunning. But we've probably all been bitten by companies that look like world beaters only to fall at the last hurdle. Of course, if you get it right, and SYNC are building a great track record, the rewards are very impressive.

[ltinvestor] 04/3/2019 08:55

Mf.Had a quick look at nvcr for you.Mkt cap around 5bn with revenues running at 250m.I do however feel that there is much more to go if the phase 3 trials for reoccurring ovarian cancer go well.Ovarian cancer , presently,can be treated but generally and sadly returns with a vengeance.Autolus has a mkt cap of around $1bn which could increase many times on successful results.I also hold Syncona which has great management and significant holdings in a number of very exciting companies......

[mad foetus] 04/3/2019 08:43

Agree it always looks good, if expensive. I thought the 20p uplift announced this morning gave a chance to get in a little cheaper, so I'm here on a spreadbet with a stop that's already above my purchase price. Happy to see how it pans out from here.

[brexitplus] 04/3/2019 08:41

Mad, I’m a long time holder of Syncona and am doing very well out of it. Impressive team, good investments, a long term hold for me.

[mad foetus] 04/3/2019 08:39

Is there a biotech thread where these matters can be discussed generally? I don't want to clog up this one, I'd had my eye on SYNC for some time and just jumped in with a short term trade this morning but if it keeps rising I will hold for a bit longer.

[brexitplus] 04/3/2019 08:37

NVCR looks a bit like AVO - Advanced Oncology. Need to look at the finals published last week.

[mad foetus] 04/3/2019 08:32

Lt,It isn't related to sync but if you understand these things do you have a view on NVCR? I've got a position and the chart is stupendous with director buys after the bell on Friday as well.

[brexitplus] 04/3/2019 08:32

Quite a few small biotech companies currently being bought. Autolus anyone?

[ltinvestor] 04/3/2019 08:29

I didn’t expect Nightstar to be taken out so soon.I advised buying the stock around $10 3 months ago(post 200)

[mad foetus] 04/3/2019 08:10

Nice uplift!

[brexitplus] 04/3/2019 07:29

Nightstar Therapeutics reaches agreement to be acquired by Biogen Switzerland Holdings for $877 million

04 March 2019

· Recommended cash offer of $877 million (£663m)[1] for Nightstar Therapeutics plc

· Syncona founded Nightstar, building and funding it through to this successful sale to Biogen

· Syncona's holding valued at £254.6 million[2], £135.4 million uplift (20.2p per share) to previous valuation[3]; a 4.5 multiple of original cost and 72% IRR[4]