Sylvania Platinum Share Discussion Threads

[muffster] 22/2/2024 09:34

Carelessness. I apologise Thanks for correcting

[leopoldalcox] 22/2/2024 09:25

Post 8564. Probably nothing malicious in it, but there's a lot of biased commentary on this board so thought worth calling out

[leopoldalcox] 22/2/2024 08:41

Market cap is 140m GBPCash is 107m USDProfit (if we double the h1) 6m USDBy not adding the currencies you were painting rosier picture. Out of carelessness or to deceive

[bountyhunter] 22/2/2024 08:39

That was 120%. The truth is nobody knows but the fundamentals here are good. This company is strong while others fall by the wayside decreasing overall supply and there is diversification into chrome where prices are stronger already.

[muffster] 22/2/2024 08:24

So on this basis, 6million profit, 100 million in the bank (roughly). Mkt cap 140 million

[bountyhunter] 22/2/2024 08:22

Yes and they could have axed the divi but didn't, they are still making money and are debt free with a very healthy cash balance and PGM prices rising.

[soilderboy] 22/2/2024 08:19

Not bad news, just as we all expected!

[justiceforthemany] 22/2/2024 08:10

Incredible that some idiots are selling! 100% upside. PGMs rising.

[scepticalinvestor] 22/2/2024 08:08

The trouble is the country this is based in is not exactly a stable economy. There are still daily electricity blackouts etc. might take a look at 1p but otherwise far to much risk here

[bountyhunter] 22/2/2024 07:52

Hopefully that interim divi of 1p is at least what the market was expecting and that today's results are also (given the low PGM basket price). Debt free with a healthy cash balance and still making money albeit significantly less right now as would be expected.

[creditcrunchies] 22/2/2024 07:19

Good guess it's 1p and quite a dramatic cut in revenue due to market prices

[bountyhunter] 21/2/2024 22:16

1p is my guess, 1.5p would be a bonus

[justiceforthemany] 21/2/2024 22:06

No one should be surprised if there is a paltry or even no interim dividend tomorrow. See above.

[justiceforthemany] 21/2/2024 17:12

PGM basket price is rising albeit slowly.No one should expect the same dividend in 2024 as 2023. Preserve cash, earn interest on the $110M.
Rhodium is up to $4,600.
PGMs will rise as interest rates are cut, likely within the next 2-3 months.

[saltraider] 21/2/2024 06:33

If you are a low-cost producer and still cash-positive at the margin despite a difficult market, then it makes sense to keep up production while higher-cost producers that are bleeding cash are forced to scale back.

And -- as other producers retire from the market -- yes, the supply-demand dynamic is going to shift in your favour.

[bountyhunter] 20/2/2024 17:23

Maybe that's good for SLP in terms of the supply and demand dynamics.

[dms8] 20/2/2024 07:36

Anglo American’s platinum arm to cut 3,700 jobs as metal’s price dives

Not sure if this bodes well, possible resulting dip in SLP to follow?

[bountyhunter] 19/2/2024 18:36

And not too long to wait for news flow:

Next events Interim results 22nd February
Q3FY2024 results April 2024

[dangersimpson2] 19/2/2024 17:51

The good thing with the Liberum note is that you can back out some of the assumptions. They have $110m revenue in for FY24. The company did c$40.6m for H1, and we are halfway through Q3.

The company are guiding 74-75koz for FY24, so let's assume they do the upper end, 75koz; that's 18.3koz per quarter for Q3 & Q4.

With that production and current 4E pricing then, they would do $38.6m in revenue in H2 and $79.2m in revenue for the FY.

In order to hit that $110m revenue forecast, then the PGM pricing would have to average 63% higher than the current spot prices for the rest of the fiscal year. This would be equivalent to $1480/oz Platinum, 1560/oz Palladium and $7200/oz Rhodium average for the rest of the year.

If they do this, plus some cost-cutting, then they will hit the $47.5m EBITDA forecast from Liberum.

I guess this is possible, but such meteoric short-term rises in short-term PGM pricing look far-fetched to me. And every day that PGM prices remain below these levels, the higher they have to rise by the end of the year to hit these revenue forecasts.

PGM supply & demand dynamics may favour future price rises that will return Sylvania to positive free cash flow in the medium term, but the short term is looking dire to me.

[wsm812] 19/2/2024 07:59

Nice 10% MRE bonus today in the news. Should support an uplifyt.

[kennyp52] 16/2/2024 18:40

RabidDog .. marginal that they are making paper profit .. Will hinge on produced / sold ounces but they should be generating cash as the cash costs are much lower.

[rabiddog] 16/2/2024 16:40

Yeah think it’s about $1000 aisc per PGM oz so we are still making money but likely to be making more on the interest on the cash at these levels lol.