Sylvania Platinum Share Discussion Threads

[bountyhunter] 16/2/2024 13:44

Interims and the interim dividend declaration should be soon now, quite possibly Tuesday.
Tuesday 21 Feb 23 last time.

[1knocker] 16/2/2024 12:54

I completed my position in Sylvania this morning with a purchase at 54.2p. That gives me an average price of 70p, so 25% down at present.

I do recall being congratulated here on my initial purchase last year at 98p, so no congratulations this time, thanks! I don't want to tempt fate!

It is a low cost producer with a strong balance sheet and decent management. Maybe I shall regret not waiting longer, or indeed regret investing here at all, but it looks to me to be a decent long term investment, even allowing for the fact that it operates in SA.

Nothing ventured, nothing gained. Time will tell.

[seagreen] 16/2/2024 11:37

No doubt there are quite a few posters who have sold their original positions or may or may not be holding an active short position. There will also be long term holders, who have taken a longer term view that the global economy will recover.
Whilst I held SLP a long time ago, I have only very recently taken a small long in my ISA for the long term as the upside reward seems to be potentially outweighing the downside risk over the mid to long term.

Especially as there are some key elections due in the West where there will be pressure on those countries to reduce interest rates and reboot the economy.

So no my head has not been in the sand and I am also well aware how dificult the situation is in South Africa.

If I could call the bottom or the top of a share price I would be called Warren but I am not!

PS Stemis thank you for your potential clarification of the post, it is appreciated.

[stemis] 16/2/2024 10:44

"With a potential EBITDA miss of c$35m on the cards, then that broker's y/e cash forecast of $87m suddenly looks more like $52m or 14p/share, which also is a material drop in the downside protection that the cash balance provides."


14p implies a market cap falling to circa £36M

I don't think he was suggesting that the share price would fall to 14p but that the cash would drop to 14p/share. Personally I think that's over conservative. If the basket price remains at a level that would deliver that shortfall, there'll be a comparable lower level of debtors that will protect the cash to some degree. However, having achieved just $7.3m ebitda in H1, it's going to need some significant rebound in the basket price to achieve ebitda of $39.4m in H2...and we are already half way through Q3

[wrighna1] 16/2/2024 10:15

I think you will find the poster to 8531 is someone with a certain amount of credibility. Put it this way I read his regular analysis on a Friday each week and sold at 80p when he said the same think several months ago. Think you are sticking your head in the sand. Like SLP. Your choice your money.

[seagreen] 16/2/2024 10:07

The current SLP market cap is 146M. The company's latest EPS is USD 0.1724 and P/E is 3.22.
Last Cash balance circa US$100M ish
Still profitable currently.

I think people who are patient might find some of the contents of post 8531 to be potentially a tad laughable such as this:

"With a potential EBITDA miss of c$35m on the cards, then that broker's y/e cash forecast of $87m suddenly looks more like $52m or 14p/share, which also is a material drop in the downside protection that the cash balance provides."


14p implies a market cap falling to circa £36M

Anyone would think the poster might be shorting give or take the currency £/$ volatility and if you take his cash balance forecast seriously he is predicting a market cap equivalent to cash

[stemis] 16/2/2024 09:00

If Tharisa is anything to go by, the prospect of investing in a new PGM mine will be treated as a negative by the market

[rabiddog] 16/2/2024 08:46

It’s decent news on an icing on the cake project. The fact that they continue to do work on it is a good indicator of the company’s financial robustness. Currently virtually zero value in the company share price for this at the moment so should accelerate it even more when resource prices recover.

[eigthwonder] 16/2/2024 08:25

And at that point Ws shows his lack of understanding of brokers' forecasts - the resource estimate of an as yet undeveloped ore body has no bearing on brokers' forecasts for this year, or next year or the year after that, maybe never.

[stemis] 16/2/2024 08:25

Why do you think this has any impact on the forecasts?

[wsm812] 16/2/2024 07:23

a 10% improvement in expected recoverable deposits and an increase in the grades. Hopefully this helps you Dangersimpson in understanding the broker forecasts?

[thecroots] 16/2/2024 07:14

Well that rns isn't bad news...

[meanreverter] 15/2/2024 19:47

Some major South African PGM producers will have to close operations if metal prices continue at these depressed levels. That will allow prices to recover eventually. In the meantime, low-cost producers such as SLP, while not enjoying happy times, will at least stay in business.

[dangersimpson2] 15/2/2024 16:08

I don't think it helps investors that brokers appear to be behind the curve on this one, which are the figures that many use to make investment decisions.

For example, at the end of January, Liberum had $46.7m EBITDA forecast for this year. Yet the company did just £7.3m EBITDA in H1. At current PGM prices, costs, and production guidance, they look to do only around $4.2m for H2, giving just $11.5m or a quarter of what Liberum had in their model. They must be modelling a huge rise in PGM in the next few months to get to their figures, and the longer we go with PGM pricing on the floor, the less and less likely this is.

So, all current figures point to a huge miss against brokers' forecasts, yet the brokers and the company choose to travel hopefully. The company may be able to mitigate this somewhat by slashing costs, cutting capex to the bone etc. but many of their costs are fixed.

With a potential EBITDA miss of c$35m on the cards, then that broker's y/e cash forecast of $87m suddenly looks more like $52m or 14p/share, which also is a material drop in the downside protection that the cash balance provides.

If PGMs don't recover in the next month or so, then this sort of outcome, which will come as a surprise to anyone who doesn't do their own financial model and rely on broker's notes, means it could take years for trust in management to be rebuilt. We could be well into the next PGM bull market with the cash balance and share price still materially lower than today.

[justiceforthemany] 15/2/2024 15:32

Interest rates will be cut soon. UK, Europe, Japan have all been through a recession in 2023. China has been weak also. Rate cuts will spur growth. Demand for PGMs will pick up. Hybrids as per Toyota are soaring. EV demand slumping.

[stemis] 15/2/2024 15:16

It's worth bearing in mind, with regard to the cash balance, that it's high level is partly due to the reduction in debtors due to the low PGM prices. $33m+ has been released into cash in the last couple of years or so. When PGM prices rise, the reverse will happen.

[justiceforthemany] 15/2/2024 14:34

Even at the current basket price they can make a small profit and keep that cash balance above $100 Million. They will also be earning a decent amount of interest on it.
As rates get cut (very soon now) the basket price will rise as the global economy also starts to fire after the recession.

[wsm812] 15/2/2024 13:36

The PGMs are precious metals, less readily extracted than base metals but are required increasingly more as new technologies evolve and are created.

Demand is currently low, creating a problem for those whose business models are built around a set price to be profitable. These firms have or will cut back on production and staff to save money. Once demand increases , in parallel with global economies growing once again, they will not be able to meet demand and the basket price will soar again.

This is what happens with cyclical stocks. It's your call as to where we in in the curreny cycle as to whether you percieve the current share price a good entry point or not.

I do and have the patience to hold until that time arrives.

[pooldar] 15/2/2024 13:24

ST Assessment was good at the time but he couldn't have predicted Covid.
Metals have become cheaper as a result of Covid and the following recession.
SLP should make more profit if the price of metals gets higher.

[weatherman] 15/2/2024 12:59

ST often bangs on about discount to NAV, or very low PE, but he doesn't explain the risks - whether the assets are in bubble territory - in this case the possibility that the price of precious metals was too high and might fall. Still the fall has been eased by high dividends.

[solarno lopez] 15/2/2024 12:32

Thanks RCT are you able to add substance to your assertion as you don’t explain why I: we have it wrong
Your explanation may prevent me buying at what appear bargain prices

[rcturner2] 15/2/2024 12:28

Unfortunately ST is wrong about this company and has lost himself and his followers a lot of money. He doesn't understand what is happening here and neither do most of the posters here.

WSM, just my observation based on what is posted here, sorry mate.

[solarno lopez] 15/2/2024 08:57

RCT I got in on the back of Simon Thompson of the IC was he wrong ?

And yes I do not have a clue about investing here perhaps you can enlighten me/us.

[rcturner2] 15/2/2024 08:51

I think the vast majority of longs on this thread really don't know what they are doing.