Supermarket Income Reit Share Discussion Threads

[cwa1] 16/9/2022 16:43

UT of almost 58M shares?! That's pretty punchy stuff

Triple witching and almost 72M total traded

[cwa1] 14/9/2022 07:17

Acquisition OF A TESCO IN LLANELLI FOR GBP66.8 MILLION

Supermarket Income REIT plc (LSE: SUPR), the real estate investment trust providing secure, inflation-protected, long income from grocery property in the UK, announces the acquisition of a Tesco supermarket in Llanelli, South Wales, for a total purchase price of GBP66.8 million (excluding acquisition costs), reflecting a net initial yield of 5.3%.

The store was developed for Tesco in 1989 and occupies a 10 acre site comprising a 82,046 sq ft net sales area supermarket, a 16-pump petrol filling station and 753 car parking spaces. The store is an online hub for Tesco, with 10 home delivery vans and a dedicated Click & Collect facility in the car park. The store is being acquired from M&G with an unexpired lease term of 12 years, with annual, upwards only RPI-linked rent reviews (subject to a 5.0% cap and 0.0% floor).

Ben Green, Director of Atrato Capital Limited, the Investment Adviser to Supermarket Income REIT plc, said:

"This acquisition further strengthens SUPR's portfolio of top trading omnichannel supermarkets. The store has strong trading fundamentals, comes at an accretive acquisition yield and is subject to annual index-linked rent reviews."

[riverman77] 13/9/2022 18:28

The various social housing REITs have all been pretty disastrous in one way or another, such as Civitas. There do seem to be heightened regulatory risks in this area, so would want to understand how the Independent Living REIT would be different. Might take a look when I get a chance, but generally avoid newly issued investment trusts as typically nothing happens for at least a year, and beyond that you're looking at a string of placings as they look to build scale which obviously keeps a lid on the share price.

[cwa1] 13/9/2022 17:33

Yes, correct, divi for SUPR

[jg231] 13/9/2022 16:48

The manager tells me Independent Living REIT (LIVE) is going to be on Primary Bid at the end of the week and should also be on the big platforms (ii, HL, AJB). Target div is 5p on LIVE (I think CWA1 is referring to SUPR). LIVE has uncapped inflation uplifts on the rents though (vs 4% caps on average for SUPR).

[cwa1] 13/9/2022 15:42

Stockopedia quoting 5.93p for 2023 for SUPR FWIW

[brexitplus] 13/9/2022 15:28

What sort of dividend is expected?

[jonwig] 13/9/2022 09:43

Out of interest, the managers here Atrato are launching an Independent Living REIT shortly:



SUPR is, of course, a big winner for them, and ROOF is shaping up well.

[chucko1] 06/9/2022 15:33

115.90. To you, 116.15!

[williamcooper104] 06/9/2022 15:31

Must be getting close to £100 on the 2068 linker Was > £300 not so very long ago It's the BTC part of the gilt market

[chucko1] 06/9/2022 15:25

Even worse - the TSCO 5.5 '33 are out 250bps from Gilt yields and a further 100bps on z-spread.

Recall that pricing to this issue was one of the selling points, even by the management.

[chucko1] 06/9/2022 15:17

Strong day today - and in the face of Gilts bloodletting.

'68s closing in on flat real yield - all the way from -250bps.

[cwa1] 06/9/2022 09:44

Supermarket Income REIT plc (LSE: SUPR), the real estate investment trust
providing secure, inflation-protected, long income from grocery property in
the UK, will announce its full year results for the year ended 30 June 2022 on
Wednesday 21 September 2022.

An in-person presentation for analysts and investors will be held at 8.30 a.m.
on the day of the results. The presentation will also be broadcast via a
webcast with a Q&A function for those unable to attend.

[williamcooper104] 03/9/2022 17:37

The Fed seems to be a working on get to 4 and then leave them there until 4 is proved to be the wrong rate Given that; if the BoE goes notably more dovish it will just increase the pain on sterling Maybe it does only go to 3.5 but I think it'll be stickier around thereAnyways - serious crystal ball - I'm confident of increased volatility and that's about it :)

[adamb1978] 03/9/2022 17:34

I'm not sure I see interest rates getting to the level that some on here and elsewhere are suggesting.

We're at 1.75% at the moment, and the BOE hasnt shown a willingness to go beyond 50 bp increases and we've only had 1 of those in the current cycle.

Recession is inevitable and that should naturally reduce inflation. So modelling what happens 2 years out, which is roughly what the BoE are meant to think about with their inflation target, you'll have energy prices lapping the sharp rises in spring/summer this year and demand dropping due to recession.

Also, whether they admit it or not, the BOE would be influenced by the headlines of increasing costs for indebted people during a recession.

They were way too late increasing rates, but I could see them peaking at say 3%-3.5% (couple 50bp rises and a couple 25bps say) before cutting mid next year

[jonwig] 03/9/2022 11:30

Supermarkets are "inflating like crazy" -



Behind a paywall, but the gist is that they've been keeping margins low for many years and are now catching up all together, ignoring price competition for the present. Even Aldi is joining in, easing the squeeze on the rest.

So they should be able to pay their rent 😊, and it's years since I last looked at supermarket shares: TSC and SBRY only ones left, I think.

[williamcooper104] 02/9/2022 14:40

And the other three quarters has an average effective maturity of 4 years - oops

[jonwig] 02/9/2022 14:27

chucko - all true, they have a lot more data than we have, but GS for one has been grossly wrong on calling the market at times (remember Abby Joseph Cohen). And of course analyst macro-forecasts are notorious for their inaccuracy.

Look at how a hint of slowing China growth has knocked oil and hard commodities. For the UK the clue is in sterling. The government's borrowing and interest requirements can't be med under weakening forex and high inflation (a quarter of our gilts are linkers).

OK, I've probably got a severe case of confirmation bias and hence a choice of the data i approve of!

[chucko1] 02/9/2022 14:01

Jonwig, I am sure that GS and Citi would have taken that all into account when they produced their news-grabbing figures. But their are so many "things" that can happen over the coming months that an inflation estimate is no more than a biased guess.

That said, I am more in your camp, but I am taking some actions lest I am wrong.

[geko5trade] 02/9/2022 13:10

I agree a UK recession looks nailed on. I had thought UK interest rates would peak around 4% but now I think much higher. 6% or even above. There's been more money printed than one could have imagined even under a Corbyn government and if Truss gets in tax cuts are going to pour fuel on the fire. Inflation possibly heading above 20% and the pound looks to be collapsing against the dollar, probably substantial further weakness to come. Think it was 1.15 when I last looked. Hope you're right with your timeframes. I was doing my homework in the 70's under candle light when things were this bearish. I wish I could return to those days of blissful ignorance when the whole thing seemed like fun!

[jonwig] 02/9/2022 11:55

There is an argument that the rate of inflation will collapse. Mathematically, it has to tail off from around March '23 onward, and warmer weather will start to kick in too. Plus recession -

The BoE is now under pressure to act tougher, and a 75 bps hike is a pretty reasonable expectation. A deep UK recession looks certain to me. (Gov't spending can't be sustained at Truss's promised levels.) The Bank will reverse, and the Fed will have achieved its goals. As soon as markets sense that, they will recover.

On energy pricing, the EU has some plans to decouple gas and electricity prices somehow. I haven't got roundto reading it.

[chucko1] 02/9/2022 11:44

Actually not looked that as I avoid FX exposure as much as possible (as I have fixed assets in Eur that I cannot hedge!).

I have VSL in spades as a listed equity (mainly USD loans, though listed in GBP), and a private fund run by Hambro Perks.

That said, I do need to do something meaningful with some USD! For now, it has been UST 2yr (holding pattern).

[williamcooper104] 02/9/2022 11:36

Wartime is an interesting point - we actually punitively taxed war profiteering during the Second World War - hard now though as need more investment into energy production Have got quite a bit of private debt - like the larger US BDCs - ARCC/BXSL/HTGC - they've mostly got floating rate assets and of course all in dollars

[chucko1] 02/9/2022 11:30

The whole story about inflation is bizarre. It is predicated upon energy prices remaining at current, or even higher, levels. And yet, this energy price is determined from the marginally highest input - i.e. gas as of now. Not the real and weighted average cost of all grid inputs. That is the agreed formula, but in that context, the excess and absurdly fortunate profits of the likes of the oil companies and even renewables must be seen in a different light.

Windfall profits are not what is healthy (arguably), but with the gas market entirely manipulated with a rise of 1000%, it's basically war time. Even the EU can see this! Perhaps we will get some sort of government who will, also.

WC, my asset of choice for now is Private Debt.

[thamestrader] 02/9/2022 11:24

dunno, but it's kinda tempting