Supermarket Income Reit Share Discussion Threads

[chucko1] 20/12/2024 13:55

WC, you are overanalysing! If there is a spectrum from deeply researched value/relative value to complete randomness, we are nearer the latter.

The daily correlation between SUPR and UKT10 has been zero (or even lower!), whereas the weekly or monthly correlation has been significantly positive.

Others have even worse price action, but there aren't any RNS's that I have seen that talk about investors' fear - or forced selling.

Nevertheless, what would this world look like with 7% UST10 or (causing?) UKT10? I see decent chances of that - in the order of 30%.

[m_kerr] 20/12/2024 12:39

Oversold IMV. Effectively trading at a net initial yield of about 7-8% now. You simply couldn't by a portfolio of this quality for that valuation on the private market.

Realty income paid 6.5% NIY for Asda supermarkets not long ago!

Plenty of rubbish out there that don't seem to price in so much pessimism.

[williamcooper104] 20/12/2024 12:27

Yep Yesterday SUPR fell a little more than PHP and a little less than LMP It can't be pure duration as the movement in share price is greater than a few basis points on gilts so suspect it's more anticipation of less general market demand for REITs relative to fixed income

[contrarian joe] 20/12/2024 12:08

Berkshire have around 25% cash,a lot of it sitting in short dated bonds.

[kernelthread] 20/12/2024 00:42

Except for Warren Buffett - he has a high allocation to cash at the moment.

[alan pt] 19/12/2024 20:25

Subjectively, seems like the "quality" end (the well established, bigger, more liquid trusts) are being hit hardest

eg nothing fundamentally wrong with SREI, but no reason it should be doing better than SUPR

Can only assume that big managers are dumping bond proxy holdings to rush to join the US lemming crowd. Better to be wrong along with everyone else than to risk being wrong alone...

"In the first fund manager survey from Bank of America since the election of Donald Trump, investors showed that they are extremely bullish on US shares.

The survey of professional investors with $518 billion (£410 billion) in assets showed “super-bullish sentiment” with a record low allocation to cash and a record high allocation to American shares."

[igoe104] 19/12/2024 19:42

They could easily sell the portfolio and get a premium to the NAV, if push comes to the shove. SUPR have premium assets, so wouldn't be short of interest...

[hindsight] 19/12/2024 19:08

Households’ deposits (M&C Table J):

Households’ deposits with banks and building societies rose by £20.2 billion in October, the largest increase since December 2020 (£21.7 billion). This was driven by households depositing an additional £14.4 billion into interest-bearing sight accounts, the highest since March 2021 (£14.9 billion). Both of these increases are higher than any pre-Covid figures on record. Households also deposited £3.1 billion into ISAs and £1.5 billion into non-interest bearing sight accounts, but withdrew £0.1 billion from interest-bearing time accounts (Chart 3).

[williamcooper104] 19/12/2024 16:16

My epra EPS the divi has been either covered or only marginally uncovered Given the debt maturity and that the current interest rate they're paying is quite a bit higher than was plus the embedded rental growth - much of it annual RPIs a divi cut is unlikely If rates stay high then in a few years there's a chance that for a couple of years the divi is again marginally uncovered For sure if the BoE begins a hiking cycle then there's a rate when a divi cut will become inevitable so can't say it's not a risk just that currently it's not a big one

[spectoacc] 19/12/2024 16:14

Also added TRIG earlier. But spoilt for choice with what to average down atm - SUPR, TRIG, FSFL, FGEN, and many more.

Good luck holders.

[alan pt] 19/12/2024 16:11

Cautiously buying more here and TRIG, must surely be close to finding a bottom???

If SUPR dropped another 8% then it would be on a 10% yield!

[bend1pa] 19/12/2024 16:08

I wonder if the market is anticipating a div cut here.

SUPR have had 2 bad years, especially 2023 when they made a PBT loss of £145m. this year there was a much smaller loss of £21m. And since 2021 they have been paying divs above the eps for the equivalent period. I wouldn't say it's beyond the realms of possibility.

www.sharecast.com/equity/Supermarket_Income_Reit

[williamcooper104] 19/12/2024 14:58

Though when I say that the yield curve should have a term premium - compensation for extra risk of lending long But for the last 30 or so years it's usually not had any/negative premium

[williamcooper104] 19/12/2024 14:56

The 30 year gilt at 5.126 is particularly notable

[panshanger1] 19/12/2024 14:40

ATL now Tempted to add a few more myself even though I have a full position but after the hawkish tone from the fed yesterday and the persistent rise in UK guilts not sure we are at the bottom yet Please ring a bell someone

[williamcooper104] 19/12/2024 13:34

Yep - I'm pretty full else would add The sell of is entirely expected given movements in gilts FWIS I think we will only have a stagflation moment before low growth/recession brings rates down - robust, recession resistant cashflows will then be at a premium and the wealth managers will be running (back) into anything with a yield But if I'm wrong about that then this will still keep throwing of a 9 yield

[orinocor] 19/12/2024 13:19

I think this is a great time to buy with the share price down a further 2% and a dividend to be announced in the next couple of weeks.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 16/12/2024 17:52

H1-2024 quotes - following the refinancing, the company has a weighted average debt maturity of 4 years, a weighted average debt cost of 3.8% and available un-drawn facilities of GBP176M (including 50M accordion) with a LTV of 37% with nothing up for renewal until 2026.

Post SBRY Huddersfield acquisition 18.11.2024 - the companies balance sheet remains robust with 75M million of remaining headroom in its debt facilities. The weighted average maturity of the companies debt facilities is 3.8 years and over 90% of the debt is currently fixed at an average rate of 4%. and LTV of 39%

[williamcooper104] 16/12/2024 16:31

Yep - there's not going to be material divi growth in the near term - but the current yield more than compensates for that Good place to be as the UK (likely) goes into recession

[riverman77] 16/12/2024 15:53

I don't see any evidence they'll need to raise equity. LTV is getting on the high side at 39% but they still have more headroom so certainly no maxed out. Average maturity of debt is 3.8 years, so shouldn't be immediately hit by higher debt costs. Furthermore, average cost of debt is already 4.1% so wouldn't expect too much of a jump when they do need to refinance - perhaps 5% at the most, assuming rates stay where they are. They also explicitly said in the recent update that they expect contracted rent increases to offset any increase in finance costs. Dividend is also covered (just about) so don't think that is in danger, but probably not much scope to increase for time being.

[c3479z1] 16/12/2024 15:23

seems they've maxed out on debt, can't buy in shares because the share price is 20% below NAV, and because of the debt level, debt interest rate gradually to roll over into higher rates, so another secondary share issue is most likely. More positively, they collect all the rent, so cash flow should pay the divi and don't have to pay for the upkeep of their properties let on full repairing leases> One of very many REITs on the LSE in a similar position, one suspects, and not much progress until long-term rates decline.
No 10 in UK list of TR Property's holdings as at August 31.

[mister md] 13/12/2024 13:47

* Supermarket Income REIT PLC on Friday said it started trading on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange


The impact on the share price has been spectacular ;-)

[marktime1231] 10/12/2024 18:40

Since when did analysing the data and thinking about your investment become something to sneer at? Blind faith, dismissing concerns seems a strange approach. The MASOR prof at Birkbeck taught us to challenge the headline sell especially from the company itself, just in case things don't stack up. Like Carillion, Wirecard, and so on and on and on ...

ISAs will fall under the spotlight one day perhaps, yes the platforms say 5000 or so ISA millionares and rising. On the other hand the ONS tells us there are over 1.1 million UK pension millionaires, and over 3 million pensioner households with net assets over £1M. So I would imagine Reeves will continue to focus on pensions and inheritance for a while.

[spectoacc] 10/12/2024 17:03

Rachel will sort us out, don't worry :(