Supermarket Income Reit Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 14/11/2024 08:10

"The flip side to higher for longer is the benefits of inflation."

No, in a word. If rates have to be higher (say 5%) to hold inflation at 2%, there's no benefit.

Which isn't to say SUPR isn't a long here.

[ghhghh] 14/11/2024 08:07

The flip side to higher for longer is the benefits of inflation.

Providing that supply demand is in balance, then this must feed through to higher rents AND eventually capital values.

Inflation and higher finance costs must feed through to higher new build costs and/or reduced supply.

And if the REIT is say 35% geared, the flip side to higher borrowing costs is that the REIT benefits from the capital uplift on the 35%.

I bought a load of SUPR yesterday as a long term hold

[williamcooper104] 13/11/2024 23:35

Got it - responded

[hindsight] 13/11/2024 21:42

WC109 have sent you pm re IB accounting question, as know you are a user too. Thank you in advance

[chucko1] 13/11/2024 21:02

Kernelthread, I am partly with you on that (higher for decades). However, much has been learned about fighting inflation with Paul Volcker rewriting the script. So a new medium term rates high may just be 5% for some period with inflation not getting much above 3.5% or so.

But against that, we have most western governments (plus China) with non-wartime-related high debt/GDP ratios and an inability to bear down on social costs, so it's really difficult to see where additional flexibility exists. And Trump may be Trump, with random and possibly terrible consequences if he heaps pressure on the Fed. My money would be on the experiment with using Musk to form some DoGE not helping materially.

Asset Beta may well indeed be drawn towards 1.0.

[williamcooper104] 13/11/2024 18:54

Pretty sure we're safe on that one

[crumppot] 13/11/2024 17:38

Williamcooper104. I dont think SUPR has any.

[williamcooper104] 13/11/2024 16:49

Beware care homes especially ones paid for by local councils

[williamcooper104] 13/11/2024 16:44

Interesting looking at the BoE rate history since 1694 (just four years after King Billy) Medium is 5, mean is 5.8 and mode is 4 Still think debt service means after a few tantrums we get to something closer or a bit below the long term mode The tantrum of course could well be the Trump Truss - and that's an all asset Beta 1 event Re-loaded on TLT puts and slowly adding here and there higher quality infra trusts (BBGI/INPP)

[mindthestash] 13/11/2024 16:32

Ed Miliband doesn't exist. It's actually an Aardman Animation plasticine puppet escaped from the studio

[kernelthread] 13/11/2024 16:28

The "longer" could well be decades. After all, we had 40 years of falling rates from 1980 to 2020, and 20 years of rising rates before that. If that is the case, anything with substantial debt is going to be in big trouble.

[hindsight] 13/11/2024 16:08

UK assets that cant move, about as popular as radioactive waste at present

[chucko1] 13/11/2024 15:58

The reason is the same as for many other long duration (with mismatched funding) REITs and ITs - higher medium term interest rates and the fear of the new government losing control. The budget has reignited those fears and there has not been an adequate defence to the criticism of it so far. Repeated soundbites from Starmer does not cut it where investors are concerned.

Although I am adding here, it is only very slowly. My time horizon is years, so I feel no need to act in haste.

[crumppot] 13/11/2024 15:55

bend1. I cant understand it either. The supermarkets are tied into long leases and have to pay the rent. They will increase their prices to offset the NI increase.

[bend1pa] 13/11/2024 15:37

It's at an all time low since it was floated. But why?

[return_of_the_apeman] 13/11/2024 15:29

9% yield at 68p + some inflation protection built in

Couldn't resist buying more, this is now a core holding for me at 10% of my sipp but I have lost a finger or two in the process

[mister md] 13/11/2024 08:30

If the shareprice declines anymore I'll be asking them to change the "SUPR" EPIC for being misleading ... ;-(

[spectoacc] 12/11/2024 20:08

They're only nibbling (75k shares is c.£52.5k - or it was when he bought!), but agree it's a good sign.

[8gggggggg] 12/11/2024 19:37

Very strange Directors etc buying when others seem to be selling...Except me , who is also buying.!!!Dakas

[marktime1231] 12/11/2024 18:30

Another significant insider buy on Monday.

[speedsgh] 12/11/2024 10:14

@NTV - See post #2313 by mwj1959...

[hugepants] 12/11/2024 08:32

This is abject.

[ntv] 12/11/2024 08:26

When is the next refinancing due?
Yield cut coming?

[nexusltd] 11/11/2024 11:59

@8gg #2329 I still have it as 3 December 2024.