Stilo Share Discussion Threads

[baa] 18/5/2017 14:07

A "steady" performance with the benefit of a 15% f/x gain implies underlying revenues are now negative , possibly by more than just a few percent.

Share price reflecting this now .

No revenue for 2017 for authorbridge , so first likely sign of meaningful 2018 sales pushed back to results due March 2019 at the earliest .

Hence ,might well be dead money for a quite a while & no wonder a few folks will jump ship.

Strange comment about acquisitions - they clearly don't have the cash to fund anything meaningful , so perhaps they'll use their paper & dilute along the way.

[stilolosses] 18/5/2017 09:44

Bless. Yes Michael! "What's another year".

[michaelmouse] 18/5/2017 09:35

SL you old rascal:-



Meanwhile we'll keep picking up the progressive dividend and maybe a special? That should keep us long term holders happy. ;)

[stilolosses] 18/5/2017 08:30

Morning Michael. I too have very, very high expectations for Stilo and I make no secret of the fact that I was very disappointed to see authorbridge still not being ready. I have been saying this for some time now.

I hope your not a cynic LOL. I am holding firmly onto my investment and I have no intention of selling it. I certainly am not in the buy today and sell tomorrow business. Longterm is the game for me.

I'm certainly not going to say its a good statement today when it comes to authorbridge. Everybody here expect big things from Stilo.

The takeover vulnerability scenario has been doing the rounds for the last 20 years or so. I don't think this is going to happen any time soon.

Your absolutely right. SL is definitely blowing hot and cold. When we get news like this today and put us back by another 12 months is very, very annoying.

[michaelmouse] 18/5/2017 07:52

LOL.

SL - You do make me laugh. Blowing hot and cold every five minutes. If I were a cynic then I could almost believe that you'd sold your shares and are hoping that the share price dips so that you can buy back in.:)

After reading the first paragraph about Authorbridge, I was slightly disappointed that sales won't be significant this year and was thinking we were going to get a consequently blah blah profit warning with the statement.

Instead, we've had an "in line with management" expectations statement. Migrate and Omnimark sales must be "steady" indeed. :)

Of course this could have been an empty statement, but then it is clearly backed up by an increasingly improving cash position which is something they appear to be achieving on a regular basis despite increasing development spend.

Interestingly, in recent years they've never mentioned potential acquisitions before or special dividends. Obviously the healthy cash generation makes this possible. An acquisition could potentially be transformative.

All told, with a medium/long term outlook, the future looks rosy. If things are in-line with cash growing this year, imagine what will happen when Authorbridge contributes to revenues next year. Even short term I don't see what the risk is, and add in the commitment to a progressive dividend policy, possible special dividends, an increasing cash pile and "potential" acquisitions then you'd be hard pressed to find any company worth less than £7m with such substantial growth potential and a safe solid financial base.

If anything they are incredibly vulnerable to predators and I just hope that they remain independent. I want to see the eventual "full" rewards :)

As for anybody selling yesterday, they'll have a job buying back in size and imo made an error of judgement.

[escapetohome] 18/5/2017 07:45

The person or institution who bought those shares must be very annoyed indeed if the person selling did have insider knowledge as claimed.

[janeann] 18/5/2017 07:34

Hadnt seen the later trades - certainly warrants an investigation re insider dealings

[stilolosses] 18/5/2017 07:17

What a bleeding massive, huge disappointing and frankly appalling general statement.

I totally and utterly bloody hate to say this but look at my above post 1934 and you will see in terms of "bloody authorbridge I bloody told you so"!

So after all the hype and after developments in authorbridge started in 2014 it is still going to take quite some time for it to be ready. I had very, very, very solid doubts about when authorbridge would be ready and this again slams home my suspicions that after all the hype it still is not ready.

Of course, Omnimark and Migrate are just "being steady". In other words, probably just doing ok.

Entering new market sectors, especially for the likes of a small company like Stilo takes years and years. They have not entered new sectors for many years.

Ok. One off dividends from time to time probably starting in 2018 or 2019. An acquisition though sounded is going to be very, very unlikely, even though it sounds nice in the AGM statement. They have not made any attempt to make any kind of acquisition for around 10 years plus and it is unlikely that they will now.

To round it off, some "in the know sod" decided to ditch around a million shares last night when markets were about to close. With a ditching of shares like that on the night before the AGM was due, a few minutes before the markets were about to close, some will say that he had no idea that the AGM statment was going to include what it did this morning. Whoever that lucky sod is good luck to him but overall I hope this is not going to have a negative effect on the shares in the short term.

On track? I say they are way, way, way off track with authorbridge on a huge, massive scale "like years"!!!!

However, I will sit on my shares and continue waiting. Naturally, I wanted Stilo to say that everything was totally on track but in terms of 2017 we can say its just another year wasted in terms of revenue contribution from authorbridge. This should not have been the case. Nothing wrong with us expecting a lot, lot, lot more from Stilo in terms of authorbridge in 2017.

I can't believe, though, how somebody could ditch near a million shares a few minutes before markets closed on the eve of the AGM. What the hell did he know that we don't is the question?

Then again, I think I have answered my own question as all the answers are in the AGM statment this morning.

[fozzie] 18/5/2017 07:11

You were right on Authorbridge v2 - no meaningful revs this year, more product seedings etc. Other than that (!) on track.

[stilolosses] 26/4/2017 06:29

So Stilo management will be holding their AGM on 18 May 2018.

I have now had a good opportunity to go over the 2016 results. I am positive on Stilo to grow revenues and profits in the current period and beyond. What I want to see is a much quicker pace than what we have been used to for several years. Nothing wrong with that.

Naturally, apart from Stilo's normal AGM, 6 month and 12 month results they do not normally make any other announcements all year round so the AGM is going to be an important date but in all seriousness I am not expecting them to give any great amount of detail. Like normal, they will say that trading is in line with managements expectations; that the new product is advancing well, with more sales hopefully going through this year; and, to give Stilo's current bank balance together with dividend approval.

They have now launched Authorbridge version 2 but the completed product is still not ready and that for me is very, very, disappointing. They have been developing this since 2014 and to date they still have to undertake more work during 2017 in order for it to be fully ready. Lets not forget that during the whole of 2016 at version 1 they were only able to bring 2 contracts on board, even though one of these were IBM. A solid player which opens doors elsewhere. Disappointing that since development started in 2014 and once version 1 was launched in 2016 only 2 contracts have come on board. Had Authorbridge been fully ready by now then it would have been contributing some good money to the bottom line.

Hopefully Stilo will give a very strong indication as to how important Authorbridge's contribution is going to be in 2017 as I think all investors here have been led to believe that it is going to contribute some serious money in 2017 onwards, but with Authorbridge still needing to have some work done, only taking 2 customers on throughout the whole of 2016, and with May 2017 being around the corner, I am now somewhat sceptical as to how much money is going to roll in specifically from Authorbridge during 2017.

The highlights of 2016 being a 16% increase in revenues and 22% increase in profits despite a very, very, disappointing reduction of £223,000 revenues in Stilo's highly respected Migrate model. This reduction came on already very low base of Migrate revenues of a few hundred thousand pounds. Though they somehow were able to get a big increase in Omnimark revenues this was offset by a huge decrease in Migrate revenues. After spending millions of pounds developing Migrate and the last 10 years or so of bringing it to the world's attention, I do not think Stilo or anybody else expected revenues in the Migrate model to be at their current levels. If Migrate revenues had done what was expected then the overall 2016 numbers would have been a lot better. In the ideal world it should have been the very old product in Omnimark that should have had lower sales with Migrate having stronger sales. After all, Migrate is the product that Stilo have been working on and pushing out for the last 10 years. Migrate for the last 10 years has been the product that should have done it for Stilo by now but as this has not been the case during the last 10 years or so, justifiably Stilo have brought the follow up product in Authorbridge. When Stilo went down the Migrate road 10 years ago by now they would have been expecting it to generate a huge amount of money and not just a few hundred thousand pounds. Disappointingly, even these low levels of revenues to date after 10 years are dropping rather than increasing year on year.

Another disappointing aspect of the 2016 results for me was the fact the the earnings per share were flat. I did expect this to be the case though. Yes! There is more! Was I really happy and delighted that they had decided to reduce their dividends from the previous 2015 year increase of 37.5% to 2016s increase of only 12.5% No I wasn't. Overall, I feel they should have at least be able to maintain dividend at the 2015 levels.

What I want to see in 2017 is a much bigger increase in Migrate revenues, Omnimark to be maintained and for Authorbridge to produce some real meaningful revenues. However, with Authorbridge still not being completed revenues from this are questionable for the time being but hopefully management will be able to give a very, very, very clear view on this come the AGM on 18 May 2017.

[bakunin] 06/4/2017 12:10

clocktower
I agree with some of what you say, but it's not in my experience actually the case that the 10 graduates each become the 1 capable one. Software design/development is like playing the piano/violin, playing tennis etc. Not everyone becomes really capable at it, even if they have great academic ability and try hard.
Anyway, Stilo obviously have at least one "special one" from the original Omnimark team. He must be otherwise I can't see how Stilo can have got to where they are now.
Maybe he is able to identify a younger version of himself and mentor them. Quite possible with such a small team.
Worrying over.

[clocktower] 06/4/2017 11:23

Bakunin;
Fresh blood needed, and while 10 run-of-the-mill graduates might not be as good as I capable individual, some of those 10 were once graduates themselves, and some turn out to be the best and the leaders of the future. Often companies will not employ the best they interview as the see the potential for that graduate/candidate replacing them, as their skills fail to keep up with the advances. Senior employees often do not like to employ brighter staff as it makes them feel insecure, they will talk those candidates down and give preference to those they do not perceive to be a threat. I have witnessed this myself.

These are all permanent jobs I note, sometimes to permanent.

[bakunin] 06/4/2017 10:42

hxxps://ca.linkedin.com/in/patrick-baker-241541a

Looks like Patrick Baker is the one.
Degree in maths as well as masters in computer science.
He's been there forever and must have been one of the original Omnimark developers.
Doesn't look like he's going anywhere else.
Good news for my investment in Stilo.

[bakunin] 06/4/2017 10:33

hxxp://www.stilo.com/recruiting-full-stack-software-developer-ottawa-canada/

I'm not sure what to make of this.
On the one hand, I presume they are expanding the AuthorBridge team, which would indicate that they are increasingly confident that it is going to generate revenue.
On the other hand, how can one put it, they're not exactly targeting the most capable IT candidates.
Anyone who has worked in IT for any length of time will know that 1 really capable individual is worth 10 run-of-the-mill computer science graduates.
I guess my conclusion would be that we can expect good revenue generation from AuthroBridge but we need to hope that management can manage a burgeoning IT department.
Let's face it: with 15 or so employees and most of them in management and sales, the IT process has not exactly been taxing for them over the years, although they have ended up with products like AuthorBridge with a minimal budget. Quite a mystery to me really, unless one of the few developers they have had is one of those truly capable ones. In which case, pray that he doesn't leave the company.

[stilolosses] 21/3/2017 13:19

Incidentally, Stilo started developing Authirbridge in 2014. If development is completed in 2017 it just goes to confirm how bleeding long it really takes to get these things up and running. Bleeding years! as has been proven by Stilo. Developments of this nature takes years to get right and then these have to be marketed and sold etc, etc, etc.

Also those long, long, long standing shareholders know how long they have waited over the years. In the last few years one has had to wait many years with Migrate and with Authorbridge since 2014.

All should now however at long last bear fruit.

[stilolosses] 21/3/2017 12:41

I agree that Brexit to an extent saved the day but if Brexit did not happen then Stilo would have managed around the same levels of 2015, give or take.

To get a full picture of Authirbride I think we will have to wait until this time next year to get a real indication of its revenues if not longer. I believe these will be very positive overall but at what percentage points is the big question.

[clocktower] 21/3/2017 12:18

So say all of us - mud is a jolly fine gent that I have watch for many years after a historic huge result he had with another stock we were both invested in, mine being a very minor one, I regret to say.

Dear firth, At 78 I guess it matters little if all the eggs you have are placed in one basket, as I expect many of your age would have trouble remembering if you had them spread around and keeping track of the ones that fail to hatch or even those that have.

In this case I think your eggs age pretty safe but I hope you live to see them all hatch but if and when they do, do not bother to take muds advice as it may be more than you have years left in you, if STL is anything to go by. :-)

[firth] 21/3/2017 11:44

Mudbath I posted 1924 before I read your posting today.

[firth] 21/3/2017 11:41

Well Clocktower I have not. The reason is as Mudbath knows I have got all my eggs in one basket. Its a stupid thing to do ,and goes against all the rules of investing. Regarding Mudbath he is the Bookmakers nightmare. 10-1 would be short for him. What happens is he hits them with say a 14-1 shot, then maybe has 5 or 6 losers at big prices. Before the 14 -1 money runs out he hits them with another huge price. So it goes on they are always chasing their losses.

SL There is a lot of truth in the rumour 'Its not what you know , but who you know'.
At my age you know good people in all kinds of industries. Regarding STL I have concentrated on 'Broking contacts' and people I know who are involved in computer businesses. Quite a few of these people hold more shares in STL than me. It all started with Mudbath.
,

[mudbath] 21/3/2017 11:28

Just to put the record straight,any rewards from stock selection mainly come from my investing when others are negative as regards a company's potential.
Thus,taking clocktower's disparaging mention for Tyratech merely underlines its attraction (to me) as an interesting speculation at today's offer price of "just" two pence.

More importantly,back at the ranch,development work on AuthorBridge V2 is scheduled to conclude this year,whereupon IBM's usage should be much expanded.
AS BREXIT and the JPO to an extent saved the day for STL in 2016 ,those AB revenues will be much needed.

[stilolosses] 21/3/2017 10:58

Incidentally, you say that you asked around about Stilo Firth. Who did you ask?

[stilolosses] 21/3/2017 10:52

Lol Clock. You are so funny. You certainly do not hold back tiger. I think we all have investments where we do well with some and not so well with others.

Firth at 78 you can be considered as a spring chicken when you compare yourself to a 95 year old lol.

I agree with everything that you say and I too know that Stilo of today is a none brainier. It ticks the boxes time after time now that it has got itself in a very good position.

Lets not forget that it operates in a very niche market and though the competition is there Stilo are more than able to hold its own with its unique offerings. In terms of not being able to deal with the multi nationals I think Stilo now have a much better footing with Authorbridge. Even if it is not able to deal with the multi nationals on a larger scale the small scale that it will be able to deal with the larger companies will slowly start to roll in the continuous repeated revenue stream that will increase year in year out.

You don't really to know their products inside out apart from knowing that they operate in a niche, are one of the market leaders and have products that are market leaders in their field with an ever increasing product base and offering. The company is well managed overall and continues to do well.

[clocktower] 21/3/2017 09:38

Hope you have not followed him into the bug business with TYRU firth. Maybe one bug to many .