Stenprop Share Discussion Threads

[martin44] 09/9/2010 10:33

however yes what a bargain at this price won't be around for long that is for sure!!

[martin44] 09/9/2010 10:32

I agree but it would be nice when someone make a commment so derogatory that they follow it through with fact!

[longshanks] 08/9/2010 15:07

don't fret about oppo - he is just representing an ulterior motive.

Some buying this morning at these bargain prices. Not just me who finds this cheap when there are shares to buy at 39p. Won't last long - MM's have a line of about 15K more cheap stock - that's all.

[martin44] 08/9/2010 14:40

oppo - I cannot understand how you can say that Spiritel has wasted millions and millions as the companies they have purchased are profitable and with the syneregies have great opportunity to not only grow the business but also to benefit from cost of sale going down! Please explain to us followers? Why will it go bust and as soon as next year what do you know that we don't?

[martin44] 07/9/2010 14:10

longshanks - I am with you on this one currently disappointing but still the opportunity is being missed by investors I would suggest....

[longshanks] 06/9/2010 17:04

I agree; with the drip, drip, drip away of support this is difficult to continue holding. However I am going to endeavour though it flies in the face of most short-term investment logic.

The price movements have little if anything to do with the company's viability though...and I think you are a tad naughty to suggest this oracle28. If people sell and no-one buys, the price is only going to go one way...and it seems not many people are buying this story yet.

Equally not many people are actually selling the story - so whatever weakness we are seeing is quite vulnerable to a market shock. The 40p resistance is also very strong given it is the placing price for the convertible loans.

Results are due in a few weeks time we should be in a better position then to see where this is heading. But with solid backing from core investors and their bank giving them such a sizeable loan facility, I am betting that things are much better than you believe.

I expect the company to still have made a loss for the last FY but for current trading to be profitable.

[oracle28] 03/9/2010 15:16

Oh dear!

Doesn't rise even on good news anymore... get out whilst you can and it's still trading!

Just 3000 shares knocks it back and below the quote!

[martin44] 26/8/2010 23:42

again and again we see good deals and contracts being won but no response the time surely cannot be far away now!

[profiting] 25/8/2010 09:41

Another major contract and can only be a matter of time before this gets noticed. Thinking of topping up as results can't be far away. Quiet on here though.Aimho

[martin44] 10/8/2010 17:31

Tend to agree with you longshanks

[longshanks] 10/8/2010 09:37

There was a sale of 15K at 42p on the 3rd which was cleared by the 11K purchase yesterday. Whilst substantial sellers sit in the background we will continue to have a fairly volatile price with the MMs inching the price up after clearing such sales.

I have been picking up a few here and there and am looking to acquire a further 30/40K over the next month or so - once the overhang is fully cleared and/or we get the results we should see a decent improvement in sentiment.

[martin44] 10/8/2010 00:02

Maybe a small realisation of what the shares are really worth with a little tick up of 8.5% on such a small buy!

[longshanks] 01/8/2010 19:54

SpiriTel are finalists for the National Business Awards (Small to Medium sized business category).



Good to see they continue to pick up awards. Just need that to feed through to some rewards for shareholders.

[longshanks] 23/7/2010 12:53

That is not strictly true oracle28. We had a pretty comprehensive update on current trading with the interim figures.

Still it would have been nice to get a trading update following year end together with an indication when results would be published.

I know that results were late last year - but there were alot of changes that could justify that being the case then. I can't see any reason for them being delayed this year.

Do you know they are 1-2 months away or are you guessing?

[oracle28] 23/7/2010 11:49

Worrying price drop.... the next sell will take it down to a whole new low level!

What worries me is the company tell us nothing of material interest so no one knows the profits or potential profits that can/are being made!

Results are still 1-2 months away!

[martin44] 16/7/2010 17:47

longshanks - as usual some very good considered comments and I am sure this is quite a possibility, the Directors are no fools and nor is Penta, watch and wait!

[longshanks] 14/7/2010 14:14

I have been digging into the figures for STP a bit more to see what level of overall investment has been made by Penta over the years.

Bearing in mind that they have been heavily involved since the reverse takeover of Expo in 2004 in which they controlled 20%, the money they have put into this investment is quite considerable.

Original investment (Expo): £5.2m
Loan converted @110p: £2.6m
Loan converted @150p: £0.5m
Loan converted @60p: £6.9m
Current convertible loan: £7.6m

In total they have invested £22.7m in STP. They currently have 14.5m shares which will increase to 33.5m shares should they convert the outstanding loan notes before November 2014.

On that basis they have invested all that money at the equivalent of 68p/share.

The current quoted market cap for STP is a little misleading as it doesn't account for the convertible loan notes and LTIP shares that could dilute the share base quite considerably. I have calculated that full dilution would result in 49.5m shares being in issue; implied market cap of £23m as opposed to quoted one of £8.5m

In fact, for Penta to just get their money back the business would have to be sold for £34m.

My guess is that they want a much better return than breakeven and will be looking to make a trade sale for the business that values it some 5 to 10 times their investment - say £250m as a nice round number. That would imply a share price of approx £5.

All told these figures go some way to explaining why the share price is still as low as it is. The potential dilution and controlling stake of Penta is a considerable deterrent and the target price of £5 looks a tall ask on historical performance and a takeover at that price any time soon looks very unlikely.

However the business is now soundly financed, operationally profitable and growing at an impressive rate. With recent acquisitions, I estimate the current annualised EBITDA run-rate to be ~£5m - 230% ahead of EBITDA in April 2009.

Further acquisitions will follow - in part now funded by internal resources, but mostly through bank debt that will become increasingly available now that they have a stronger balance sheet. I conservatively believe we could see 100% improvement on EBITDA for each of the next three years. This would give us 2014 EBITDA of approx £40m.

A trade sale of the business for £250m at that point should therefore be pretty straightfoward and give Penta the exit they are looking for.

[longshanks] 08/7/2010 13:19

Anyone take note of my O/T comment last week:


longshanks - 30 Jun'10 - 10:03 - 203 of 212 edit

....

O/T: tara7 - if you are watching - take a look at SCE if you get a chance. Interesting situation developing with MMs horribly short and house broker aggressively bidding for stock. Issued an upbeat statement "ahead of market expectations" at the beginning of June with a promise to give more detail of improving situation with the results in July. Looks like it could explode with the right type of encouragement ;)


SCE share price really beginning to motor now. The reason why I think it important is that STP (as a stock) is very similar to SCE. Different businesses completely but similar in many ways in terms of shareholder base and sentiment.

SCE was at a real bottom last January when there was a horrible stock overhang and you could buy as many shares as you wanted. They then issued results which were "so, so" and shortly afterwards, Directors and staff all started buying shares. Since then the price has come up very strongly helped by a trading statement indicating performance above market expectations.

All you need is sentiment to change and the price of unloved stocks will change dramatically. The upside for SCE when they were at 8p was huge, just as the upside for STP at 46p is now equally huge.

[martin44] 08/7/2010 12:49

Totally agree and if I had spare money not committed I too would be a buyer, overhang of stock would most certainly cause this drop...I too hope the trading update comes sooner as there is so much good news!

[longshanks] 08/7/2010 11:11

someone is desperate to sell: WINS appear to have a large overhang of stock.

I'm still a buyer so will be adding more of these in the next week or so. I have a feeling that results are going to be a real eye-opener - just hope we don't have to wait till September/October to get them.

[martin44] 08/7/2010 10:55

A blip I am sure!

[oracle28] 08/7/2010 10:53

oops.....i warned you!!

[martin44] 06/7/2010 14:46

longshanks - good stuff and factual too...!

[longshanks] 03/7/2010 10:15

Whilst looking at competitors it is also worth looking at Alternative Networks (AN.)

Daisy focuses on smaller businesses whereas AN. focuses more on larger SME's (between 90-1000 employees) which is more in line with STP's target market.

AN. recently released a bullish set of interim results showing EBITDA of £5.5m for the six months which I suspect is roughly what STP is currently running at on an annualised basis. AN. has a market cap of £73m whilst STP. has a market cap of just £10m. Even accounting for AN.'s stronger balance sheet, this is a huge discount.

Since the interim figures on 8th June, AN. has seen a substantial rerating with the share price appreciating 25%.

As and when STP publish their annual results and the figures are confirmed - I anticipate that we will see a huge rerating for STP towards what I see as fair value of £1.50.