Stanley Gibbons Share Discussion Threads

[kael] 02/7/2004 11:45

CWF has an interest in SGI:



"The top ten investments, excluding cash, comprising 29.0% of the
investment portfolio at market as of May 31, 2004 were as follows:

Corin Group PLC (United Kingdom) 5.0%
Stanley Gibbons Group Limited (United Kingdom) 4.3%
"

[kael] 02/7/2004 01:56

As long as the results are as expected at interims (on course for 5.3p full year), then it's just a case of patience. From what I've heard and seen, there is nothing to worry about.

Halfway through the year and you can discount the historic PE and concentrate on prospective, not long to wait for results. Should be exciting (well, as exciting as stamps get ;) )

[xdavid] 02/7/2004 00:28

Just did some figures:
At a return of 8.7p per share, this would be a one-off yield of 11%. However, SGI have yet to announce how exactly proceeds would be returned; whether buybacks, a divi or a combination. From the statement in 2003 results they merely state regarding PRVD sale: "It will be our intention to return any surplus funds to shareholders this year and we hope to be in a position by June to confirm the exact amount"

Current fundamentals for SGI:

Price: 78.5
Historic to Y/E Dec 2003:
EPS 3.5p, PE 22.4, Growth 79%, PEG 0.28
Estimate for 2004:
EPS 5.3p, PE 14.8, Growth 51%, PEG 0.29
Estimate for 2005:
EPS 7p, PE 11.2, Growth 32%, PEG 0.35

Should 8.7p be returned to shareholders, then the 'real' price would become 70p. The change to the figures taking this into account:

Price: 70p
Historic to Y/E Dec 2003:
EPS 3.5p, PE 20.0, Growth 79%, PEG 0.25
Estimate for 2004:
EPS 5.3p, PE 13.2, Growth 51%, PEG 0.26
Estimate for 2005:
EPS 7p, PE 10.0, Growth 32%, PEG 0.31

"No brainer", as far as I'm concerned. I remain, very long SGI !

[xdavid] 01/7/2004 22:46

Good spot, Livinginhope, but...

we still have a week or so to go. That press statement was announcing that the offering is now open "an announcement of the sale". The prospectus document is here...


This is the confirmation document I spoke about in my earlier post. I think the actual success (or otherwise) of the offering is expected to be confirmed on 7th July... "The underwriters expect to deliver the shares in New York, New York on July 7, 2004"

The public offering price is $19.63. The "proceeds, before expenses, to selling stockholders" is $18.50. Say we knock off another 5% for further SGI expenses, that would net SGI $3.9M or £2.14M. At 24.5M shares (I've lost count of options and buyback!), that would be net 8.7p per share.

However, the price of the offering can still change and indeed the whole offering might be postponed or fail (but unlikely IMO). A good sign was that PRVD stock was heavily traded today and finished up 0.25% (but down on higher opening rises) to finish at $19.66.

Until the actual sale and confirmed price achieved, I don't expect SGI to announce anything. And whether they would bother announcing prior to results or just wait, I don't know. It may however be an opportunity to do a double whammy - once with the announcement of the proceeds, and followed a couple of weeks later with the interims. Might be too tempting for SGI to miss!

[kael] 01/7/2004 14:27

I assume that as the sale has gone through before the 30th June - we should see the cash in the interim report for SGI?

[livinginhope] 01/7/2004 06:22

Looks to me like the shares in Provide Commerce have now been sold.

[xdavid] 30/6/2004 12:32

This is similar to the original IPO. SGI didn't put out any info until the IPO actually went ahead succesfully. If they did announce anything and the 2nd offering failed for whatever reason they would then have to announce this with the resultant negative reaction - it's better in balance, I guess, that they wait until events are certain. Never mind, only 4 weeks and counting...

[ukhawk] 30/6/2004 10:35

I'm surprised SGI hasn't released a statement confirming that the PRVD sale is a part of their 2nd offering. Anybody reading the annual report would be expecting some news.

[ukhawk] 27/6/2004 09:28

Although there's an argument that buybacks are better for long-term holders, I think SGI are at the stage where the PR generated by a special dividend, followed by another at the interims, would be much more beneficial. I think buybacks would slip under the radar, whereas dividends would give IC, and the like, the opportunity to say "we told you so".

[xdavid] 26/6/2004 15:50

I agree with your sentiments, Kael. Additionally, in light of SGI's cash generation, it would be nice to see them up the 'official' dividend from the estimated figures and so make a bigger impact news-wise on this too. A low PE and high divi would attract people using 'value' filters to find new share ideas. Even if this was partly paid for in the first year or so by retaining some of the PRVD cash, not that they really need to retain this due to their cash balance anyway.

[kael] 26/6/2004 15:13

Those R trades did look like a rollover like you said ukhawk, but the R Tag on it confused me. But tbh it does look like a rollover and thus trades arelatively even stevens.

With regards to whether its more institutional buying, I would tend to agree, placing a few orders to wipe up any surplus during this news empty period is an easy (and profitable)way to support the price - the mm's are unlikely to be hit by a flurry of large sells so close to interims.

But there is still this uncertainty with whats going to happen with the extra cash. I have to say buybacks, on paper, look the better option for long term holders, but I would prefer the smaller shareholders to have the choice of whether to reinvest a possible special dividend. A dividend of a respectable size would bolster investor confidence and wake people up to SGI. It would make quite a mark if SGI's first move into a dividend policy was an impressive one!

[nurdin] 26/6/2004 12:30

Cant wait till the results time.Current year pe of 15 droping to 11.5 next year..thats without any cash back likely to be around 10p. 56% eps growth this year,32% the next...forward peg of 0.3!
If sales momentum via the internet is confirmed at the interims,expect major earnings upgrades by the brokers..one of the cheapest stocks on the market imo

[ukhawk] 26/6/2004 11:43

Are you sure that was 40k sold on thursday ? Normally I'd say that was a roll-over, but that fact that it was a "riskless" trade makes it a little confusing.

Also thought the company has to announce all buybacks, so prefer the institutions buying theory. Whatever, it's good news.

[xdavid] 25/6/2004 21:55

Yep, despite 21K shares sold prior to the 25K buy, on top of the 40K sold yesterday, the bid/offer never fluttered. It would be fascinating to know if this is SGI buybacks or one of the institutions increasing their holding. Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe that RNS's do not need to be issued by holders (above 3%) until the holding goes above the next full percent. 1% of the stock = 250K shares so there may not be an RNS for a few more buys yet.
But, yes... looks very good!

[jwe] 25/6/2004 16:42

Starting to look very good for the next few weeks.

[kael] 25/6/2004 15:52

There we see ANOTHER 25K buy go through.

[xdavid] 24/6/2004 16:01

Back to current trading patterns:
2 sells went through half an hour ago: 20,000 @ 76p and 20,000 @ 76.12p
I just checked comdirect and the NMS and prices have not changed. I can still sell 37,000 and get 77.5p...? Someone has been done... or will this be followed after 4 by a 40,000 buy? Answer: no...
Maybe tomorrow...

[xdavid] 24/6/2004 15:19

STOP PRESS: SGI's whole holding is being sold as part of PRVD's second offering.
PRVD's registration statement, lodged with Securities & Exchange Commision on 21st June, lists Collector Cafe Ltd (old SGI name) selling all 220,922 shares which it holds.

The document is here (see page 85):

A confirmation of Collector Cafe ownership & share holding is in Note 10 to SGI's financial statements, Dec 2003 Annual Report.

No date has yet been set for the offering and an amendment to the existing document, stating the offering date, needs to be lodged and accepted by the exchange prior to this happening. The "Approximate Date" is given as, "As soon as practicable after the effective date of this Registration Statement." The original offering took 3 months from original proposal. This second offering was first proposed on 4th June (the above document is an amendment), so could have a while to go yet but surely not as long as the original IPO process?

No confirmed offering price has yet been set but the "Proposed Maximum Offering Price" is stated as $19.79. This is usually amended as the proposal moves forward to allow for market changes, so does not really mean anything.

So... we now know it is definitely being sold (unless the offering is withdrawn or fails of course!). But we do not know when. Until the offering actually goes succesfully through SGI will not be announcing anything - this is similar to the original IPO process for PRVD. In particular they will not be announcing what they will be doing with proceeds they do not yet have.

But... hopefully we can still look forward to a pre-close trading statement...? Maybe not... Mike Hall does like to spring surprises and would a pre-close statement not spoil that surprise?
Ooooh, I'm dying of anticipation here....

[kael] 24/6/2004 13:28

Mm..Im just trying to work out if SGI have already sold the PRVD holding(yes I know, very speculative ;) ). It appears they could have sold a chunk on the 15th?



If that is the case we could be looking at around $20 per share which equates to $4.4million or at 1.81 (£) = £2.4million (9.6p/share)

[ukhawk] 24/6/2004 10:59

Even though the mm's appear to be short of stock, I think they'd be quite happy to be long with news due before the end of the month. Don't think a "free float" would hold it back if the news is as good as we're hoping/expecting for !

[xdavid] 24/6/2004 08:57

I checked online NMS yesterday as well. Same pattern as before:
37,500 @ 77.5p bid
10,000 @ 80.75p offer

Currently showing same today.
A good sign, despite the lack of trading and movement. If (when) any announcement is made and/or volume buying begins, there is likely to not be any free float to hold the price down.

[kael] 24/6/2004 03:16

Just had a gander at the trade log, yes imo it looks like there is someone accumulating, T trades go through after 4, 25K chunks:

10/06/04 16:17 79.0 25,000 T 75.0 79.0

17/06/04 16:22 80.0 25,000 T 77.0 81.0

22/06/04 16:30 80.0 25,000 T 76.0 81.0


Bid is also consistently closer to the mid than the offer is.

For example yesterday 77.5p bid 80.5-81p offer, on the books as 76-81

[xdavid] 22/6/2004 18:21

I've noticed quite a few buys around that size in the last couple of weeks. Lots of small selling which in itself normally slides the price down but didn't (until today)followed by a 20K or so buy. Also, the bid price seemed to consistently be 1p or so closer to the 'mid' than the offer price which suggested that the MMs were either trying to push the price up or they were trying to accumulate a float. I was sufficiently intrigued to check the online Normal Market Sizes yesterday and sure enough, this was set at 35K shares if selling but only 10K if buying. In other words, they were quite happy for people to sell them as much as they liked online but wanted control over buys of any reasonable size. I may be reading more into this than exists but it seems to me they have been filling one or more orders the last week or two. Someone is happy to be mopping up at this level.

[jwe] 22/6/2004 16:35

Nice 25k buy at the close.

[gengulphus] 21/6/2004 20:16

Having thought about it a bit more, I've the impression that the normal AGM resolution about dividends is just to declare the dividend for the year - rather than to declare the final dividend. So what may be the case is that the AGM resolution approves both interim and final dividends together - i.e. that an interim dividend is one that is technically approved by the resolution, but paid in advance of it and anticipating that it will be passed.

If this is the case (and I don't know, I'm just trying to put together vague memories of things heard in the past), I've no idea what happens if the resolution fails to be passed!

So all that I am really certain of is that interim dividends get paid either without any resolution to approve them or before any such resolution gets passed - but which, I'm not certain.

Gengulphus