Stanley Gibbons Share Discussion Threads

[barnetpeter] 09/6/2004 01:06

90p is fair value. I say 5p EPS and that means a PE of 18 which is too high. But the PRVD stake will reduce it to around 15, which is fair enough.

[nuttynige] 08/6/2004 22:46

drat, bad news to see the price up recently, i was enjoying using the time to top up long on them. oh well it was inevitable.

[kael] 08/6/2004 13:23

That all depends on your time frame shaun, but me personally I expect 120p by full year results in Febuary. With earnings of 6p (yes i know that's above forecasts ;) ) that would place it on a historic PE of 20 and roughly prospective of 15. But if general market conditions are buoyant, then it could go much higher.

[shaunoneill] 08/6/2004 13:17

what sort of target price are yuo guys looking at?

[kael] 08/6/2004 11:09

Good to see the strength back in SGI, 6 odd days to possible PRVD sale and 7 weeks to interims, looking very nice indeed :)

What are the chances of beating expectations yet again? ;)

[orange1] 08/6/2004 10:54

That announcement concerning Provide seems very encouraging:
There are 2.2 mio shares in the secondary offering. I am assuming that they include SGI's (a small proportion of the total amount being offered).
The price has stayed relatively firm since the announcement was made.
The company seems so confident that the issue will get away that it is also raising money for itself.
So it all points to SGI selling their holding for over $ 20 in the next few weeks.

SGI shares seem to be very hard to get hold of in the market at the mo - another good sign.

[nurdin] 08/6/2004 10:41

:o)...pleasing rise again....£1 if they issue a trading statement which I feel is on the cards...

[getscenic] 08/6/2004 09:10

Mr Temple working his magic again ( see sat's F.T.)

[nurdin] 07/6/2004 09:37

Heading back to previous highs imo....trading is good.

[kael] 04/6/2004 15:16

Right back home again. Unfortunately I was unable to attend the seminar on wednesday, but I am endeavouring to get to the one on 22nd June. Not much to talk about, except that buy volume has been picking up nicely of late.

[kael] 02/6/2004 12:54

Well, the autographs can do quite well, but you need the really old ones to do really well - there is an example on the site of one of Beethovens going for £75000.

[xdavid] 02/6/2004 10:20

Regarding the coins and autograph section, I think it was in the Annual Report where they state that they are going to dedicate more development to these this year, this includes increasing stock. I have noticed on there website that changes have already been made to promote these more. I was even tempted with some of the autographs they are offering in their investment section - there are some crackers!

[kael] 02/6/2004 01:22

Agree with some of the issues you bring up BP(namely the lack of movemnt on the tip, but which can also be taken as beneficial. The fact that buying may not have been as heavy as you might expect could be indicative of things other than "technical weakness"), but I would say the justification of a market cap of 25million simply comes down to how much money this company can and does generate. It isnt about what their shop looks like. In fact there is more than just the shops at The Strand they own, there is also the publication division in Ringwood to consider, not to mention the Brand name itself. There are dangers of growing too quickly and growing through acquisitions. The Investment arm is growing very well indeed as an example:



There is plenty of scope for internal growth which is a much more profitable method than acquisitions, there is also the present and upcoming change in the demographic profile of developed countries to consider. "Not really a massive growth stock"? You really should look at the figures a bit more. This IS a perfect growth stock, the only downside is that it is dependent upon an investment market. As long as SGI can position themselves through the period of rapid increases in stamp prices, EPS will grow naturally. I personally would like to see the expansion into coins take up a bit more pace, it is a perfect twin for stamp investment.

[barnetpeter] 01/6/2004 19:56

Some good posts here ... which doesn't mean I think they are necessarly right. It is always easy to think that your fav is the stock that the market has missed and that the price will explode soon. The fact that it was tipped up strongly last week in SHARES and didn't budge indicates the technical position is weak. Where is this growth going to come from long-term I ask? Not from stamps and autographs on the retail side. These are a limited and specialist market. I can remember going to the rather tatty shop on the Strand nearly 30 years and it hasn't changed much since. So what else then when the PRVD stock is sold?

The website is interesting and looking better every time I see it. That will be the main driver for now. But then what? How to justify a valuation of more than 25 million say?

I say that SGI is a solid stock which will likely impove earnings and divis each year. Perfect for an ISA or TESSA (if it was allowed) and cheap at 50p and below. But not really a massive growth stock.

Just my opinion.

[kael] 01/6/2004 15:18

Warning: A bit lengthy and 5 month old.

Well I have been trying to dig around looking for info on the stamp markets, but best I could come up with was in december last year :/ I will post it here as I dont think we have seen it - it will be interesting to see how conditions will have carried through to this year:

19-12-2003 05:29:03

WSJE(12/19) PERSONAL JOURNAL: Collecting: Investors Hope Stamps..


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Deliver

(From THE WALL STREET JOURNAL EUROPE)
By Margaret Studer

COLLECTOR INTEREST in rare stamps is on the rise as consumers seek investment
alternatives.

Demand is particularly strong in the U.K., philatelic specialists say.
"People here are fed up with stocks; and their pensions are down. So they have
latched on to stamps," says Richard Purkis, secretary at Stanley Gibbons of
London, Europe's oldest stamp dealer, founded by Edward Stanley Gibbons during
1856, not long after the world's first stamp was produced in England during
1840.

Stamp auctions were attended extremely well during 2003, with very
competitive bidding for major items, Mr. Purkis says. During the first half,
Stanley Gibbons added more than 4,000 customers and clients continued to join
during the second half. He says "the outlook for stamps will remain robust."

Stanley Gibbons publishes the SG100 Stamp Price Index based on actual prices
of the 100 most frequently traded stamps in the world. The SG100 index showed
an estimated cumulative rise of more than 15% during the first 11 months of
2003. U.K. stamps showed an estimated cumulative increase of more than 21%
during the period, according to the index.

Stanley Gibbons' store on London's Strand has more than three million stamps
available. Mr. Purkis was quite excited over a recent sale. A so-called cover,
or envelope, featuring the U.K. one-penny black, the first stamp issued in the
world, had sold at Stanley Gibbons for GBP 46,000 (65,332 euros). Stanley
Gibbons publishes widely read stamp catalogs, a monthly magazine about market
trends and books about collecting.

Other stamp experts also have a positive view of the market. "People are
looking for alternative places to put their money," says Paul Skinner, a
Bonhams stamp specialist. Bonhams holds up to 12 philatelic auctions in the
U.K. each year.

At Spink, another major London stamp auctioneer, specialist Richard Watkins
also is bullish. "We have a very buoyant market. For British stamps, it is the
strongest market we have seen for many years." Mr. Watkins says the market for
U.K. and Commonwealth stamps gradually gained momentum during the past five
years, but really has taken off.

Mike Hall, Stanley Gibbons chief executive, says that this increased demand
outweighs a diminishing supply so that there is upward pressure on prices for
top items. Supply of rare pieces is influenced by the fragility of stamps and
by their disappearance from the market as they find their way into museums.

"Buoyant but selective" is the way Geneva dealer David Feldman describes the
market. He says other European markets are trailing the demand for the stamps
of Britain and its former colonies. But when great pieces come up in any
market, they are sold for ever-higher prices, he adds.

Spink held its first auction in France during November. The sale featured a
private collection of early French stamps where inverted images on a stamp
appear beside stamps in the same series that have correctly placed portraits. A
block of four 1849-50 one-franc vermilion (red) stamps with one image inverted
sold for 820,000 euros, the highest price paid for an individual French stamp.

David Feldman SA holds the record for the highest price paid world-wide for a
philatelic piece at auction -- 6.1 million Swiss francs (3.9 million euros) for
a Mauritius Bordeaux cover during 1993. The envelope was sent in 1847 from
Mauritius to Bordeaux, France, bearing a one-penny Mauritius orange-red stamp
and a two-penny Mauritius deep-blue stamp. The dealer also holds the world
record for the highest price paid for a single stamp at auction -- $2.2 million
(1.8 million euros) during 1996 for a 1855 Swedish three Skilling stamp printed
in yellow instead of the customary green. Both items are considered among the
greatest rarities in the philatelic market. A more recent record was set at
Feldman's November auction with the highest price for a Cape of Good Hope item
-- 236,000 Swiss francs for an 1861 one-penny blue stamp.

The dealer holds two groups of auctions each year using a system in which
collectors can bid simultaneously in salesrooms in different countries as well
as over the telephone and the Internet. During 2003, Feldman linked a main
Geneva salesroom to salesrooms in London, Helsinki and Athens as stamps from
the U.K., Finland and Greece provided top lots. By holding simultaneous sales,
Mr. Feldman says, stamp collections can be auctioned in the country where they
will sell best.

More than 30 million people world-wide are said to collect stamps. Fitting
into most budgets, stamps offer an enormous variety of themes on which a
collection can be built. Themes include countries, regions, animals, birds,
butterflies, dinosaurs, fish, flowers, sports, railways, ships, to name a few.
The most important thing for a collector is to define a strategy and to choose
a theme or themes that interest them personally, specialists say.

For those interested in the investment potential, it is important to remember
that price enhancement depends on rarity and condition.For the novice, expert
advice is a must. Zurich dealer Rolf Weggler says price depends on a variety of
tiny details. For example, stamps that weren't perforated had to be cut down
the margin. If this wasn't done perfectly, the margin was damaged. "A part of a
millimeter can mean a price difference of several thousand," Mr. Weggler says.
The quality of the paper and of color play a price-setting role. There are a
lot of fakes around, so that buyers should make sure they get a guarantee from
the dealer to ensure that they get what they buy, he adds.

Stamp collecting is divided between individual stamps and postal history
through covers. In the covers' sector, not only condition and rarity count, but
other factors such as the item's history and to whom it was sent. Demand for
covers is increasing, specialists say.

When buying at auction a premium is charged. This can vary roughly from 10%
to 17.5% of the total, depending on the size of the transaction.

Stanley Gibbons provides three portfolio-management services for stamp
collectors. With a discretionary portfolio, Stanley Gibbons is contracted to
build up a portfolio on the client's account that has the best opportunity for
capital growth. With a personal portfolio, the client chooses the material or
lists his requirements and sets a time frame for targets to be reached. The
third alternative is for the client and Stanley Gibbons to build a collection
working closely together. In this case, stamps are added monthly to an agreed
value.

There isn't a charge for the portfolio service, Mr. Purkis says. However, a
1% of the value fee is charged if the portfolios are stored and insured in
Stanley Gibbons' vault. This fee is charged only after the first year of a
portfolio's inception.

---

Stanley Gibbons, 399 Strand, London. Tel: [phone].
www.stanleygibbons.co.uk

Bonhams, 101 New Bond St., London. Tel: [phone]. www.bonhams.com

Spink, 69 Southampton Row, Bloomsbury, London. Tel: [phone].
www.spink.com

David Feldman, 175 route de Chancy, Geneva. Tel: [phone].
www.davidfeldman.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

19-12-03 0530GMT

121903 05:30 -- GMT

[nurdin] 01/6/2004 10:37

No I didnt ask him that but I do believe companies registered outside the US are not liable for the US CGT

[shanklin] 01/6/2004 10:26

Nurdin

Thank you for investigating this.

This is good to hear, as I'm long SGI and had factored a tax liability on the PRVD sale into my calculations.

Out of interest, did Mr Purkis also confirm there will be no CG tax liability in the US on the sale of the PRVD shares? Having never owned non-UK based shares I have no idea how CG profits on shares in foreign jurisdictions, are normally calculated... ...e.g.. whether double taxation would apply if it was a UK based company making a profit on a sale of shares quoted only in the US market.

Thanks again, Martin

[nurdin] 01/6/2004 09:50

Shanklin..there are no tax liablities in the Jersey Islands.Confirmed to me by Mr.Purkis 5 min ago....;o)

[shanklin] 01/6/2004 09:40

Nurdin

We may need to factor tax into the situation

Being simplistic, and using your 10.8p number
10.8/share minus tax on the associated capital gain of approximately 10p/share, at say 30%, might give
10.8p - 3p = 7.8p/share

Comments welcome

[orange1] 01/6/2004 08:17

xdavid
You seem a little confused about the significance of the closed period. The company can make an announcement at any time during the period. What is not allowed to happen is for the directors to deal in shares of the company during that period.

[nurdin] 01/6/2004 06:54

Just a point of note re PRVD holding.If I recall correctly they hold about 221,000 shares..thats worth $4.86m at share price of $22.
-at current exchange rate ($1.8:£1) thats equal to £2.7m
-I reckon there are now 24.5m shares in the issue after the recent buy back
-that translates to 10.8p a share.
-to get 8p the PRVD share price needs to drop back to $16ish which I think is unlikely..unless theres a major crash of course!

[kael] 01/6/2004 02:11

Excellent analysis xdavid, good post.

[xdavid] 01/6/2004 01:41

Forgot to mention:
Regarding their statement about hoping to announce PRVD proceeds "by June", they are free to dispose of the holding from Monday 14th June. With their interims due on 30th July they will enter their 6 week 'close' period on Friday 18th June. As we saw from all the institutional buying in March, these are organised people and I fully expect an announcement, along with a trading update, in the week of 14th to 18th June.