Stanley Gibbons Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 12/5/2006 06:59

I'm not sure the bit in the press is taken it it's proper context. Is he talking about the guaranteed returns market and not the stamp market in general? It doesn't ring with the RNS or what the FD said.

This in the Guardian

"Stamp dealer Stanley Gibbons recovered some ground after falling 12% on Wednesday after Spanish police raided two of its rivals over a possible fraud. Yesterday, after Stanley said it had no dealings with the two companies involved, its shares recovered 1.5p to 149p. Analysts at Seymour Pierce said the fall in the share price represented a good buying opportunity and maintained their price target of 200p."

[diogenesj] 11/5/2006 22:32

CR: in the long term, I'm sure you are right. But in the short to medium term, the words of the MD (quoted in Orange1's post no. 419 above) need to be taken seriously imo. His tone is rather different from that of the RNS.

[fred123] 11/5/2006 22:26

CR
You 're right of course in that the Stanley Gibbons name is synonymous with absolute integrity. But if you're a punter who had been looking to put a substantial sum into stamps (directly, or indirectly into a fund or equity) just before this news broke, you'd wait a while until the dust cleared before parting with your cash, wouldn't you?

[fred123] 11/5/2006 22:24

CR
You 're right of course in that the Stanley Gibbons name is synonymous with absolute integrity. But if you're a punter who had been looking to put a substantial sum into stamps (directly, or indirectly into a fund or equity) just before this news broke, you'd wait a while until the dust cleared before parting with your cash, wouldn't you?

[kidney] 11/5/2006 22:12

Hopefully the share price will find resistance at 130p,but I,like many ,will be waiting to see what happens before reinvesting.
I am unsure as to where SGI fits in re: other stamp dealers.As the company has been around for so long,it must have a proven reputation for accurate pricing and honest dealing which will help to allay investor fears.However,my knowledge of the stamp market is limited,so any info will be gratefully received.
I am sad to see the final recognition of this company's worth submerged by the nasty activities of the Spanish firms.
The Market has a short memory,but if the shorters get hold of this we may have to wait a long time for the share price to recover.SGI has always been quiet when it comes to rns's and praising themselves.A gentlemanly crowd,who must be shaken to the core by "The Spanish Scandal"
Finally it will be survival of the fittest...the Spanish thing may be the tip of the iceberg.Maybe the market is flooded with faked stamps,who am I to know?I just wish it had'nt happened.SGI was my favourite share and I shall get back in once the broohaha has quietened down.

[cockneyrebel] 11/5/2006 22:10

"The Board of Stanley Gibbons does not believe that the result of any inquiries into the affairs of the Spanish companies will affect Stanley Gibbons or the value of quality rare stamps in the markets in which it operates."

Read it, it's quite a bold and confident statement to say that it will not affect the value of quality rare stamps in the markets in which it operates.

If there are $10b sales in stamps per annum and one would expect the bulk of collectors don't churn that much but hold, the churn rate is probably less than 5%, perhaps much less imo. The total stamp market is probably around a trillion dollars or more.

Stamps are also a currency - it's the smallest, lightest way to transport money across borders after electronic transfer. We are talking about way less than 1% of the total stamp market in markets that SG don't operate in.

I think it's already dipped too far. Where are the large sells? If it was anything serious to SGI I would expect the highly clued up investors the first to know they should bail out or cut their position. Today there's net 180K - sells - 0.5%. Yesterday less than 1%. the largest trades yesterday were 2 x 200K - one a buy, one a sell - the rest have been mainly tiny retail punters. I'd expect to see several large 250K type and 100K type sells from the well connected but there isn't any either.

For me I suspect it's like the FD said to me yesterday - 'nonsense'.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 11/5/2006 21:50

Nice deramp but they have said they are not connected to it, in an RNS. It's pretty illegal to lie in an RNS.

"Stanley Gibbons does not have any connection or business relationship with either company. Stanley Gibbons operates in separate markets using different business models to the companies concerned. The Board of Stanley Gibbons does not believe that the result of any inquiries into the affairs of the Spanish companies will affect Stanley Gibbons or the value of quality rare stamps in the markets in which it operates".



CR

[fred123] 11/5/2006 19:26

The rebound today petered out to next to nothing. So what next for the sp? The believers have topped up today after SGI offered as much reassurance as they can. Are holders going to keep supporting the share price by adding: I don't think so.
We face an uncertain period of drip-drip news from the Spanish investigation and who knows what British connexion might be revealed.

The short term share price will be DOWN imo. What will support it is profit already earned to be confirmed at the results, but from yesterday onwards profitability will suffer until all uncertainty is removed..is Spanish justice quicker than ours?

[orange1] 11/5/2006 16:48

Goodnight
I don't know if the distinction between collectors and investors is so clear cut.
I think some collectors might be motivated in part by the idea that their collections also represent a bit of an investment and will buy with this in mind.
A turn down in prices might cause them to hold back with their purchases.
Similarly those who rely on auctions to increase their collections might hold back
from bidding if they think that prices tomorrow might be cheaper.
Deflation in the stamp market might affect SGI in these subtler ways and thereby their bottom line.

[goodnight1] 11/5/2006 15:58

Orange - I agree that there will perhaps be some problems in the stamp market but there will still be people collecting and they will not care about Spain. I think SGI have said that they are pleased that there seem to be more real buyers rather than just investment buyers over the last couple of years.

I was surprised to see that the total investment in Spain was £4bn.

I would have bought this morning at 150p but for the price going up. I think I will buy some more at these levels as they are only back where they were two week ago.

So the shares might fall for a few days or even weeks but the return here is better than most shares.

[cockneyrebel] 11/5/2006 15:55

So basically, it the stamp market 10% weaker and you scaled back SGI earnings next year from what looked like 20p eps to 18p eps. So does that make the stock expensive or not a buy?

From Stanley Gibbon Website:

"The stamp market alone represents a global business of $10 billion per annum"

I can't help thinking £5m isn't huge in the bigger picture.

I can't see how this affects the total global stamp market or SGI's market that much, aside from the very short term perhaps.

CR

[scumdog] 11/5/2006 15:51

That's how I see it Orange - confidence will have taken a knock - and for the present the upwards momentum in the SGI share price has been hit for six.
The loss in confidence could well extend to stamp dealing generally, not just in Spain. This could impact upon stamp prices world wide and thus upon SGI's trading figures.

[orange1] 11/5/2006 15:32

The tenor of the posts today appears to be: there is a little local difficulty in Spain, it's absolutely nothing to do with SGI and it won't affect SGI. It could even work to SGI's advantage.

Worth repeating therefore my post of this morning and the words of none other than the MD of SGI:

" Mike Hall, chief executive of Stanley Gibbons, said: "This can't do any good to the stamp market. We don't know what the quality of these stamps was, but it must be bad for confidence. It's difficult to see where the global market will go now that there is so much supply around." Gibbons itself operates "guaranteed return" plans, paying up to 7% a year. This gives investors a choice of rates and maturity dates. But Mr Hall said only a few hundred customers have opted for these schemes.

"We have £6m under management with only a small proportion in guaranteed plans. We have reserved for these in our accounts but there is no external backing," Mr Hall said.

Experts say stamp prices have doubled since 2000 but the withdrawal of the Spanish from the market is likely to hit prices across the board."

[teapreacher] 11/5/2006 15:00

Just picked up some more under 150p:-)

[scumdog] 11/5/2006 14:59

Thanks CR.
Respect!

[cockneyrebel] 11/5/2006 14:55

oops, can see how it might have looked like that now - sorry - no, not directed at you.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 11/5/2006 14:54

No, I wasn't directing it at you Scumdog, sorry. Just in general - myself like :-)

CR

[scumdog] 11/5/2006 08:27

MMs will make a tidy sum on the sales yesterday before the share price falls back again IMO.

[cambium] 11/5/2006 08:23

Thanks for your comments CR, reassuring.

[cockneyrebel] 11/5/2006 08:19

Got myself a chunk more anyay. Short term noise, sentiment etc - all the traders will be as horny as hell in a couple of weeks as the results get nearer and this is forgotten.


"The Board of Stanley Gibbons does not believe that the result of any inquiries into the affairs of the Spanish companies will affect Stanley Gibbons or the value of quality rare stamps in the markets in which it operates. " That's the real story imo

[njp] 11/5/2006 08:02

Can't keep quality down. Luckily I missed the hysteria here yesterday. SGI are THE quality name in stamps and I can't possibly see how their business will be affected by the Spanish scam. Seems like the market's coming back to its senses.