Srt Marine Systems Share Discussion Threads

[pugugly] 20/7/2018 20:40

A varient on the theme and not sure if a potential competitor or complementary - Could be both

A real-time satellite-based surveillance of ships has gone live


Possibly more of a competitor for ISAT.

However VERY VERY much larger and profitable -

[owenski] 20/7/2018 17:59

Tends to suggest the market is staring to see the bigger picture of where SRT is heading, short term noise is just that imo.

[lavalmy] 20/7/2018 12:40

Don't bother much with that myself, though no doubt it could be profitable given the oscillations we have seen over the years. At some point, of course, it will not hold true.

Incidentally, it seems that there is a (new?) purchaser in volume, as there was last week at higher prices. Possibly one of those brought in to the fundraising? Certainly someone who takes the cancellation of 60% of the year's turnover in their stride - it was flagged in the document, but perhaps the risk (and explanation) was pointed out more vividly face-to-face. We diehards are used to this sort of thing, of course. But as boadicea says, carnage would be more usual in ths sort of case.

[boadicea] 20/7/2018 12:04

I think the market has been relatively lenient in its view of SRT over the past week. Given its history there could have been total carnage so the principal holders of the stock, some of whom (and not only Valmy or other posters here) will have superior knowledge of the underlying situation, are clearly convinced that it will eventually come up with at least a modest proportion of its supposed VSP before financial time runs out.

The only basic strategy I have been using is to keep the holding value more or less constant - i.e looking to add when it goes ~15% below a certain figure and selling when it goes ~15% above. Currently this would determine 24.5p as my buy price and 33p as a sell so I am sitting on my hands. Of course the strategy is subject to review based partly on the excellent background supplied by contributors to this thread, partly on waiting for directional trends to settle and also taking a view on the likelihood of outside interest in the technology - e.g. a t/o bid or major partnership deal.

So far this has worked to give a break-even price of 14p. However NAI applies and the stated strategy has left me with losses in some other cases as well as good profits in others!

[goodapple] 19/7/2018 08:52

Any more info from FinnCap?

[lavalmy] 19/7/2018 07:57

Some of the detail from finnCap

'Although management anticipates these revenues to fall into the current year, at this stage we are not changing our FY 2019 expectations as we await visibility on the re-awarding of the contract and further, SRT’s capacity to deliver on an even greater step-up in revenue in FY 2019 than we already anticipated. The company expects little cashflow impact since the contract payments should still arrive in FY 2019 and will be and will be broadly in line with its existing implications.'

[pugugly] 18/7/2018 17:14

Sorry post above in wrong language should have read
"filipino napaka nakakalito mga tao upang makipag-ayos ng isang kontrata sa"

[yump] 18/7/2018 16:42

I don't get some of the reasoning here.

If there are NDA's, then not giving guidance may be necessary. If we don't know the content then there's no way of knowing.

If there are no NDA's then not giving guidance is SRT avoiding the issue.

If we don't know if there were NDA's or not, then concluding that guidance was hidden because subsequent events somehow 'reveal' that SRT knew something they didn't want to reveal, is simply not logical.

[crystball] 18/7/2018 16:13

LaV,

Thanks for your posts. I'm trying to think of something positive to say about all the shenanigans that have taken place. My response today has been to halve my holding only months after doubling it at 21.5p back in April. It is disappointing to see the turn of events and doesn't inspire confidence going forwards. I look forward to hearing an explanation from ST and directors when we meet for the AGM in early September.

[fft] 18/7/2018 15:59

LaV,

Thanks for your upfront responses today. They have been informative - esp. regarding the Philippines 'contract'.

Much appreciated.

[papy02] 18/7/2018 15:52

Hear hear LaV

[lavalmy] 18/7/2018 15:38

fft

Actually, in the fund raising document, they did give an analysis of when they expected to invoice the Philippines and when they expected to be paid, as well as the total value etc. What they were hiding was (and still is) that they hadn't a signed contract, although they did note, in the risk factors, that sometimes they did things without contracts (which I do not believe for one instant).

As for terms of payment, I think we can assume that nothing gets paid upfront and that they will be able to access pre-shipment and post-shipment working capital supported by export credit guarantees, none of which will be available without signed contracts.

This current fiasco was caused by the early recognition of revenues to meet last year's forecasts. They hoped that it would be sorted by the time of delayed publication of the accounts. They were wrong about that and wrong to do it in the first place. It is to be hoped that they have learnt that lesson.

[fft] 18/7/2018 15:13

zipstuck, for credibility, and with a revenue of only 5.3m in 2017/2018 (!), then issuing rns's (i.e. japan) without giving any revenue guidance only leads to assuming the worst.

The Indonesia deal didn't give any guidance(hiding behind alleged NDA's), and a year later it was obvious why not.
The Phillipines deal (not officially announced until an RNS saying it didn't happen !!!), didn't give any forward guidance, and is now obvious why not. NDA's were mentioned here I believe.

For SRT to have any credibility, it needs to be honest, and disclose the value of contracts, the stage payments and whether SRT is being paid up front or later, etc, etc. It cant hide and then cancel. Cash is king, and when SRT is being paid is essential information.

ST is looking more of a chancer.

[zipstuck] 18/7/2018 13:54

I suspect that the new contract is to ensure deal is squeaky clean for client national audit office if the CLS deal was dependent on French Govt funding.

[zipstuck] 18/7/2018 13:49

The recent Japanese manufacturing deal will add credibility to SRT offering in any event

[glavey] 18/7/2018 13:36

"Unfortunate post Glavey >> filtered"

Instead of shooting the messenger Piedro, perhaps you should try engaging with the question: What rating the debt?

[zingaro] 18/7/2018 13:26

Surely any re-tendering or change of supplier would involve significant delays for the fishing nation.

[yump] 18/7/2018 13:17

Judging by the relatively mild share price drop, there's a lot of people who nowadays with SRT just think 'whatever'.

[lavalmy] 18/7/2018 12:46

finnCap reiterates at 75p. Nothing much seems to fluster them.

[eagle eye] 18/7/2018 12:07

I assumed (incorrectly) that the French ODA loan would cease to be the avenue of finance with CLS off the scene.
So the SE Asia Project (assume Phillipines) have approved the budget and will utilize it's own funds to finance the contract.
Re-tendering suggests another supplier might rejoin the fray.
Some will say here we go, another Indonesian situation.
But with budget sign off and funding available, this appears a delay rather than postponement.
I think CLS must be gutted as they have been unable to secure this contract even with their own finance in place.
I guess you pay your money and take your choice.
I've retained my holding in SRT.

[lavalmy] 18/7/2018 11:34

Piedro

Might be true of other places, India sticking out like a sore thumb, but I really don't think that SRT are being pushed around in this case. In fact, they have pushed out the incumbent, CLS, who had the benefit of a pre-financed bid on favorable terms and that agreed since 2015. If anyone was being milked here, it was them.

That SRT have pushed out CLS, who are a relatively small company but with extremely influential shareholders, has not been recognised nor will it be until the contract is formally awarded - but it is, IMO, an enormous success.

[pugugly] 18/7/2018 11:31

Orang-orang yang sangat licik filipinos ini

[piedro] 18/7/2018 11:21

Unfortunate post Glavey >> filtered

I think SRT needs to rethink themselves.

It would seem that they are just too small a company to be able to deal with Asian governments on equal terms.

Presumably all the technical, legal and planning consultations have been free of charge.

Old trick !!

[lavalmy] 18/7/2018 11:02

C5

From the RNS:

'In March 2018, SRT was directly awarded a Euro 28.5m contract by a SE Asian government..'

Not even a string of onions and a beret!

As for your ludicrous suggestion that I do not exercise my rights as shareholder to express my extreme disapproval with the corporate governance of a company which I partly own, but instead sell, well...

[glavey] 18/7/2018 10:24

A FTSE company would be off more than this on the strength of this news. Makes one wonder...

Jam for sale - get yours now!

Jam Sir? Certainly that'll be £2.50 a jar. We are expecting the delivery next week. You'll look in later? Well, you could do that Sir, but might I suggest you reserve some now. Once it arrives the word will get out and everyone will want some so it'll probably be £3.50 a jar or more by then. Supply and demand Sir you see, supply and demand. A deposit? Unfortunately not Sir, we'll need the full amount. You wouldn't want to miss out now would you?!

Next week a notice appears in the window. Unfortunately the Jam is delayed as our supplier has cancelled the delivery. We are expecting it sometime next year if we are able to come to an arrangement with the supplier.

Q. What rating the debt?