Srt Marine Systems Share Discussion Threads

[lavalmy] 28/11/2016 14:09

Raging, Philburt, raging.

In the short term, I expect chunky step-ups on contract news and delivered deliverables. How many and how big is the question.

Then upgraded broker forecasts for next year on the back of those.

So, at a guess, £1 by end March, £1.50 by the end of 2017 as double digit EPS becomes clear.

And I expect it to flatline, give or take, unless it gets swept up in a speculative bubble, until the quantum of recurring revenues becomes visible. Frankly, no one really knows what governments will want and how much they will pay for the added extras until they have the basic system up and running. My guess is still that they will get to double digits on that too.

Thereafter, who knows what new applications will be added to AIS and/or to the MDM systems? I mean it was only about a year ago that the idea of radar/CCTV/infra-red/AIS fusion was mentioned here and a contract along those lines signed with Indonesia for double what we were expecting.

So I think over the 4-5 year horizon £3.00 might be achievable, particularly if they use cashflow in excess of operating requirements to reduce the number of shares at much lower prices.

[philburt] 28/11/2016 13:20

I'd be interested to know how bullish people are feeling about SRT at the moment?
I've just topped up with 30k shares for the first time in a long while (last at about 20p). That's about a 25% add for me, so I guess I'm declaring as a Bull.
I'm a long term holder, with room to let it run at least another 3 or 4 years.
Any thoughts?

[lavalmy] 27/11/2016 06:07

Well spotted TP. It certainly seems that they are going ahead with the project. The winter sitting ends on my birthday, 16th December. So some time next year as Simon indicated seems reasonable.

I suppose the next thing to look out for, apart from the legislation being passed, will be more reports about the government issuing the devices free to the fishermen. I have no doubt that part of the eE/SRT divorce was related to this. Simon was quite specific about the fact that the Indians gleaned what they could from eE. He certainly didn't suggest that they had done likewise with SRT.

What remains unclear is whether SRT will be able to get recurring revenues from this.

[the prophet] 26/11/2016 17:18

hjbRe ' up the garden path', not that I was aware of or can remember.I think India was always going to use their own space agency (ISRA ? Or something like that) for tracking. There was a tie up with ISRA and EE, but the good news now is SRT are able to suggest or offer other options other than EE.Regarding back handers etc, I assume that will all be in the domain of the local partner Elcom.

[hjb1] 26/11/2016 17:05

TP, unfortunately with the likes of India being upto "scratch" means how big is your budget for backhanders.

[hjb1] 26/11/2016 15:57

is India one of the reasons for the "divorce" from Exactearth?

[hjb1] 26/11/2016 15:42

TP, one would like to think it was all above board and straight, we will see.Did they not lead ST up the garden path regards Absea or something?

[the prophet] 26/11/2016 15:32

HjbI don't think they will be able to copy, this is a question of national security and I can't see the contract going to anyone who isn't up to scratch. SRT will be there right in the mix, I feel sure. I think SRT use Elcom in India as their local partner. It's good to know there is this sort of stuff coming up on the ranks.

[hjb1] 26/11/2016 15:06

yes , all well and good, just depends whether SRT are going to be involved in the final shakeup when the contracts are handed out.Would not surprise me that they have copied everything SRT have shown them!!

[countryman5] 22/11/2016 20:29

FT. Scarborough Shoal. 'Duterte declares fishing ban in disputed area to bolster China ties'. Mr Graham,Lowy Institute, Sydney said the decision may backfire because Mr Duterte was in effect denying access to China, Taiwan and Vietnam, which were all found by The Hague tribunal to have traditional fishing rights there too'.Spokesman from Renmin University of China, said Mr Duterte's announcement could easily intensify the conflicts between China and the Philippines.

[countryman5] 17/11/2016 21:41

Additional gallery photographs.
PS. Some might be interested in viewing 'Products' on the website and then view the identifier, together with its stainless steel support and solar panel. Impressive bit of kit.

[lavalmy] 17/11/2016 15:07

hjb

8

edit: And it was more setting themselves up to be able to do so rather than hiring new people. OTOH, they did previously talk about hiring more customer facing people. How you square that with reduced overheads (one blonde American less?) and outsourcing 'in-country project installation work' beats me.

[lavalmy] 17/11/2016 15:06

On another board, ST is reported to have said that the Asian contract was a national security project and that there was nothing he could say publicly about it at this time. Not like him to be that coy. Maybe they are bound in a confidentiality agreement with Qnective?

Whatever. If my theory is correct, given that would have been the position as at 30 September, then it is quite possible that a deliverable could in fact be delivered in the coming weeks. If it is indeed hubs and viewers and the like, they would need work at MSN and testing before being dispatched. And, of course, we know of no other active contract apart from Indonesia. So an annoucement that say £4-6 million had been shipped, whilst welcome, would only confirm that the thing is progressing and that the FY revenue target is likely to be achieved - that may not matter much to me, but could well do to others. What impact that could have on sentiment, I don't know. Not a lot maybe.

Of course, other contracts are expected to be signed, though it is getting tighter and tighter for 'significant deliverables' to be delivered this FY in respect of those. Each announcement is bound to have an effect, possibly a compound one as the rest of the pipeline becomes more and more believable. The point is, though, that these contracts could happen anytime. A single $20 million one would probably add something to the price, but maybe not enough to worry about timing an entry. Three or four and you would be crying into your milk for not having committed earlier.

I am hoping that nothing happens for a bit, which with SRT has nearly always been a good bet. But I really do not think that will last for much longer. They clearly are expecting lots to actually happen and are looking forward with great optimism.

[the prophet] 17/11/2016 14:53

Cant remember, but whatever it was they can cope with more projects

[hjb1] 17/11/2016 14:51

well,haven't they taken on enough staff to cope with upto 6 projects at once, or was it less?

[the prophet] 17/11/2016 14:40

hjbThat's my understanding.We are now waiting for some of the deliverables in that contract to be delivered. Quite when that will be, who knows other than it is pretty clear that we will see significant deliverables delivered in this half.Interesting comment from the chairman about multiple over lapping contracts, we've already got Saudi and Indonesia. Is he referring to others expected to come on board in this period?......

[hjb1] 17/11/2016 14:30

Kalk, dunno what you mean!? lol..

[kalkanite] 17/11/2016 14:07

hjb1....

"looking to buy more here"

Good heavens! It must be well oversold!
:-)

[hjb1] 17/11/2016 11:16

looking to buy more here, just can't decide how far back this will go.We did seem to have some decent support at 40p but that looks like it's gone now and if we don't get any news until next Jan/Feb then what??
TP, did you say that the Indo deal was all still going fine?

[the prophet] 15/11/2016 15:38

yes, very good points LaV

[philburt] 15/11/2016 15:35

LaV - Good point, well made. Thanks.

[lavalmy] 15/11/2016 15:28

C5

I don't think so. They never have announced a webcast and then sprung a surprise contract on the day of the webcast. Probably breaks a rule of some sort, or at least it should.

You will remember the Indonesian deal which, if anything, deserved a full webcast of its own but did not trigger anything.

I think they will tell us as and when contracts signed and then separately when bits are shipped.

I think something is rather imminent based on the working capital position. They get paid for the Indonesian deal by Qnective under a facility they have. They also generally pay off their creditors and of course have had little need to purchase new stock. But we see that trade and other payables are at £3.2 million and correspondingly trade and other receivables at £4.1 million. These numbers have no correlation with the level of sales in the period. I take it to mean that they owe a bunch of money for stuff, the corresponding debit to which sits in prepayments and accrued income (at cost) and not in stock. If this is so, then obviously something is afoot. If £2 million of the creditor balance is involved, then, at 50% margins, it would look like the sale of £4 million of kit which is not transponders is not far off. How ever many transponders from stock would go off with that kit would be in addition.

Given that sort of outlook, which could be as off the mark as one of Simon's forecasts, and depending on the speed and scale of near term orders, they could well meet the £9.3 million H2 revenues to hit the forecast. But they would have to come in pretty soon if they are to be shipped in time, unless some one wants a big stash of Class A devices in a hurry.

I don't think that whether they miss or hit the £12 million will matter if they announce a few large projects in the meantime.

[the prophet] 15/11/2016 15:20

I would suggest Rivaldo is saying for a company that turned over a couple of mill and lost money it's a tad on the high side.....that's the rear view mirror approach, and, to be fair, SRT has promised lots of times before and we're still waiting for a good set of figures.
This time we've got $100m order or whatever, with more to come, so , this time it's (cough) different.....

[hjb1] 15/11/2016 15:17

Rivaldo, why is it worth noting??