Srt Marine Systems Share Discussion Threads

[owenski] 03/8/2016 11:40

TP correct

PEG and to some extent PE's are not the appropriate tools for this situation.

But it just offers a quick guide to demonstrate that the current M.Cap is not necessarily expensive.

Cheers

[philburt] 03/8/2016 11:06

Lav - regarding your earlier post. I'm impressed with your circa 3% and a little jealous! Wish I had the sofa money to grow mine a little. Lol
Coincidentally, my average is also 24p/share, but estimate I hold only 0.1% of share capital so no foreseeable reporting requirements.
Expecting an share price of £1 to £1.50, in the fullness of time....
GLA & DYOR as always!

[the prophet] 03/8/2016 10:46

good post Owenski and some very good points, although I question the use or validity of PEGs in this sort of situation where there can be extremes (both high and low) of sales and earnings. I feel PEGS are of more benefit in more stable situations with companies that have something more of a track record in terms of a p/e.

[crystball] 03/8/2016 10:31

Yes Owenski, I agree. We ain't seen nothing yet!

[owenski] 03/8/2016 10:28

Just an observation regarding SRT's current 74m valuation.

Based on the past this is eye watering, however, valuations are based on future prospects.

Just a few loose figures to give a ball park feel, tax not included.

A P.E. of 10 which is a low growth valuation requires SRT at current M.Cap. to deliver turnover of roughly 26m

A P.E. of 15 which takes a valuation that expects modest growth requires SRT to deliver roughly 21m turnover.

21m turnover from last years figures is circa 100% growth rate which equates to a PEG ratio of 0.15 (Some would say that ratio is eye wateringly cheap)

There is an approx. $100m (£80m) forward order book, plus VoP of £200m moving towards conversion. The forward order book is deliverable in slightly less than 3 years now - which suggests an exponential increase in revenue at some point, thus 100% increase in annual revenue growth looks likely (at some point in the delivery time scale) and high growth rates for some time to come thereafter.

The externally validated security situations in these 'project' countries is obtainable through news sources external to SRT and so the order books etc are credible.

The figures assume 11m T.O. for SRT's operating costs, which will increase at 5 - 10% to facilitate the expected growth.

The figures are not supposed to be accurate, just a guide to give perspective that although SRT's valuation could appear juicy today, when measured against expectations, it's not looking expensive at all.

S.P's can run a whole lot higher in these situations.

Just my opinion

[2vdm] 03/8/2016 10:06

Yes the share price is getting very high now valuing SRT at £73m? Surely ee will need news for this level to be sustained? Thoughts TP and Le Val?

[trident5] 03/8/2016 09:07

Up 3p to 57/58p
Summat up!

[yumyum] 03/8/2016 09:05

I especially liked this bit : The three countries were also eyeing the possibility of mandatory installation of Automatic Identification Systems on all vessels navigating through transit corridors.

[yumyum] 03/8/2016 09:03

Malaysian, Indonesian, Philippine Defence Ministers Eye Enhancing Maritime Security
KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 2 (Bernama) -- Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines have agreed to further explore the possibility of conducting 'hot pursuits' into neighbouring maritime waters as part of an effort to address current security challenges in the region.

The three countries would also look into a higher level of intelligence sharing as well as trilateral maritime security exercises in the maritime areas of common concern.

These points were contained in a joint statement issued following a trilateral meeting of the defence ministers of the respective countries in Bali today.

The meeting was attended by Malaysian Defence Minister Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Tun Hussein, Indonesian Defence Minister Gen (R) Ryamizard Ryacudu and the Philippines' National Defence Secretary Delfin N. Lorenzana.

"The ministers raised concerns over the repeated incidents of armed robbery at sea and kidnapping by radical groups in the martitime areas of common concern," the statement said.

It said the ministers reaffirmed the commitment and the need of collective responses of the three countries to address such threats.

They agreed to further explore the standard operating procedure (SOP) governing transit corridor, sea marshall, the concept of the Melaka Strait Patrol (MSP) and the concept of Eyes in the Sky.

The three countries were also eyeing the possibility of mandatory installation of Automatic Identification Systems on all vessels navigating through transit corridors.

The matter of conducting coordinated trilateral activities among their armed forces would also be looked into, the joint statement said.

Also to be further studied was placing liaison officers in their respective military command centres for coordination, information sharing and maritime domain awareness.

In addition, the ministers reiterated their stand to combat violent extremism and terrorism conducted by organisations like IS/Daesh.

-- BERNAMA

[the prophet] 03/8/2016 09:01

There are other ways to track small vessels other than ABSEA, it's just that they are too expensive and, in some cases, impractical.




Satellite networks such as Inmarsat, Globalstar & Iridium

For remote locations with no mobile signal, a Simplex (transmit only) device such as Spot Trace can provide movement alerts using the Globalstar satellite network, with an annual cost starting at Euro119 for Basic plans.

For larger boats or Yachts on ocean voyages, the RockFLEET Iridium Tracker can communicate anywhere on Earth to provide GPS locations, and also send & receive text email & SMS messages. There is a monthly fee of £15 per device, with a 'pay as you go' system for data use. Dual technology enables you to further reduce operating costs by adding a GSM card & use 'least cost routing' by GPRS, with fallback to Iridium when out of cell range.

[hjb1] 03/8/2016 08:55

trident, they can't..of course if they wanted to then Absea is available...no other way I'm told...they will only be capable mainly with class A.

[trident5] 03/8/2016 08:42

How will ORBCOMM track smaller boats?
………;……̷0;……R30;……230;……………………………;……̷0;……R30;……230;…………..
Indeed. Does anyone know?

[the prophet] 03/8/2016 08:25

C5, you could well be right, looks to me like a buy of 900 just pushed the share price north!
Gawd knows where it will go to when we get some more serious news.....starting with a £ sign?.....we will see.

[countryman5] 03/8/2016 03:28

Re Lav
I suspect that it would be difficult to acquire 3% today even if willing to pay 65p. Stock appears tightly held.
Moral of the story? Buy stock when nobody else wants it, so long as you are sure that you are buying the right stock!!

Re the above:- How will ORBCOMM track smaller boats?

[trident5] 02/8/2016 23:31

What are the implications of this? Does anyone know?

[hjb1] 02/8/2016 23:03

they're on the conveyor belt, didn't you know? lol
what about some credit for the $100m Indonesian deal!

[the prophet] 02/8/2016 15:04

yes, it's away again, £70m+ market cap now, not bad. Must be one of the best performers on AIM this year?.....

[trident5] 02/8/2016 15:02

56p on the bid!

[yumyum] 02/8/2016 13:34

I am expecting £1.50 to look very shabby myself. No harm in taking profits though. I wait for the takeover.

[the prophet] 02/8/2016 13:28

sounds a more than reasonable scenario and strategy LaV. This could kick on seriously. Double digit eps and more visibility on recurring revenues would ,imo, equate to a share price more in the region of £2+, but it's always good to set ones expectations at a more modest level, and £1-£1.50 would not be too shabby at all!

[lavalmy] 02/8/2016 11:39

Thanks for the good wishes, guys!

As the stake was bought at an average of 24p, we are sitting very pretty.

My central investment thesis remains that it will become obvious towards the end of SRT's FY that they will be earning in the double digits next year and that that level of performance will continue into the foreseeable, with recurring revenues becoming much more certain to arrive. It doesn't really matter what this year's numbers are, IMO.

So, I think the share price will re-rate sharply as a result, to the £1-1.50 level. At the top of that range, we will probably resize our position to below 3%. We haven't added any yet, still waiting on the sofa money, but would like it to drift lower in the meantime. Who knows with summer trading? And with SRT, news can come at any time.

[the prophet] 02/8/2016 11:20

Well done to LaV, that is some stake and I hope you make (another) fortune!

[lazyj] 02/8/2016 10:17

I'd love to be that " mad" too!
:-)

[2vdm] 02/8/2016 10:15

Good luck LeVal.