Then there's this :
The use of aircraft to provide intermittent, expensive and incomplete surveillance of mainly Chinese 'illegals'.
I've sent a link to Simon, though I'm sure it's already on SRT's radar (geddit?).
No use going to UKEF for support on this one, presumably, but maybe the Donald could be tapped for finance : yet another 'security' for minerals play (reverse alphabet - first Ukraine; then Greenland; now DR Congo; next week Argentina...?).
'The world is not enough'.
GLA |
Weird interview on R4 at the moment - expert hasn't even mentioned AIS - 'both ships have radar'... |
'Tracking data appears to show the Solong hit the Stena Immaculate when it was anchored'.
Bizarre. |
There was another programme yesterday about the attacks and future threats to infrastructure running under the North and Baltic Seas. They'll have to get serious about MDA sooner or later... |
An oil tanker and cargo vessel have collided in the North Sea.
Reported on BBC News. Tanker on fire apparently. |
Yes China’s tentacles are reaching into all sorts of developing country infrastructure. |
I believe that SRT bid for a contract with Peru, but it was awarded to China because China had paid for the new port. It is how China works. Perhaps better that SRT did not win the contract because China would have tried to steal everything. |
Point 1
Pretty much sums it up and I’ve been trawling through the market for years and don’t recall finding a “moat” like this. Lots of claims for one of course from all sorts of wannabes. The proof is that there aren’t any similar contracts being awarded to a competitor, not that there are any competitors. |
 I haven't contributed to these bulletin boards for some considerable time but I'm just going to throw in few thoughts fwiw.
1) Personally I think that SRT is possibly the most exciting smaller company I've ever seen. If I'm correct then they seem to have a virtual monopoly on a massive Systems market with contracts valued in the multi-millions. Whilst it's taken a long time for them to get to this stage, all indicators suggest that an inflection point has been reached. They also boast a very exciting transceivers division.
2) Countryman - I can't imagine any investor would be happy with 65p at this juncture? If LaValmy is anywhere near the right ballpark with pre-tax around £25m for next year then a simple play with the figures suggests a very conservative market cap. of at least double where we are now. As a small growth stock however, I'd expect a p/e of 25+ and a relatively near term valuation around £625m (in normal markets anyway).
3) Returning to point one and given that another exciting aspect of this company is locking in clients with the opportunity to significantly expand on their systems in future and a $1.2b pipeline of future business then (whilst it may seem fanciful to some), I see that there's potential for a multi-billion pound company over the forthcoming years.
Obviously it's a small company and everybody has a different attitude to risk but for me personally the possible rewards far outweigh the risks. With all that IP if things did go awry, it's almost inconceivable that a predator wouldn't pounce.
Over the years I've largely focused my investing efforts on the small and micro-cap sector with (as you'd imagine) varying degrees of success. I've had some multi-baggers and some absolute stinkers. However, to re-iterate what I said earlier SRT (for me) is the most exciting stock I've seen.
It's all too easy to get distracted by an erratic share price and forget about the business you've invested in. Don't forget in H1 SRT signed contracts worth £182m and made a PBT of £2.5m. A further $15m contract has been signed in January due for delivery by end 2025.
Fingers crossed for all shareholders that potential here is fully realised in the near, medium and long term.
Best wishes. |
The share price has pulled back from 60 p to 40p as the market awaits the start of the Indonesia contract and the follow on broker note. How would people react if a hostile bid of 65p from entity X were to be received in the next few days? I assume that the company would immediately release the broker note. I imagine that OI would think hard about a counter offer. They obviously have the money, but they might be happy to just take a profit. Oliver Plunkett might be put in a difficult position because he would be well informed about future systems contracts. This would be because he is a NED and also because OI is probably party to some of the contracts in the pipeline. Lav has mentioned a possible 175 million usd contract with Kuwait, but I suspect that there could be a further £400 million systems contract in the near term pipeline. Somehow shareholders should be entitled to know the bigger picture in order to decide whether to sell, or accept an offer. |
10mln would be about 4p eps and a pe of 10 at current price which would be daft, especially if the forecast said anything like double for next year.
100% growth with bigly increased pe x the rating would be interesting |
I don't quite know what to expect for the forecasts for this FY, as there were no real indications of how much will be invoiced for Bahrain and Saudi nor any further milestones on the Kuwait project. If we can assume that the £21.5 million booked in H1 for Kuwait is of a similar margin to the initial £42 million expected on the Bakamla contract, plus a small amount from the other three and transceivers, then turnover of £80 million and maybe £8-10 million pre-tax profit is on the cards.
As for next year, the bulk of Kuwait, substantial parts of Bakamla and the other two should generate a very high turnover number with profits not keeping pace, maybe £25 million pre-tax?
I do expect that the Kuwaitis will be moving on to the next phase as well and that will be contracted well before the start date to give time for the UKEF to get their bond coverage in place and would practically follow on from the $213 million (16 months to completion?). $175 million was bandied around for that. |
I think the start of Bakamla and the broker forecast will put a rocket under the share price, which is reacting downwards to the lack of the above (which are even later than late really). Such is the nature of governments and massive contracts. Wish all a good weekend and better weeks to come. |
Unfortunately, with the US market, and many others, falling off lately, people sell for the sake of taking a profit that's already made, simple as that. However, this price looks very much like a stability point now. |
Regretting not selling out at 63p 🙄 |
Once again, its worked out better to sell the spike and wait for the exaggerated movements, which is a shame really, as a stable share price would benefit the business and investors, even if had just got to 50p and stayed thereabouts. There must have been plenty of 'loose' shareholders looking at 60 after getting shares at 35p and just taking a good short-term profit.
Hopefully if things work out, there won't be a need for more raises until really good results appear to show that its growing profits rapidly. At which point, investors might be less prone to selling off.
You would think, with the likes of BAB taking off, a few investor eyes might come in SRT's direction as the world gets more unstable and country boundaries are challenged. |
In the mean time SRT management and shareholders await Indonesia news. This will trigger the long awaited broker note which will give T/O and PBT for this year and the next two years. These forecasts will be underpinned by signed contracts. Hopefully, the note will reveal current cash balances. The unaudited half year figures should be released in mid July. Will the note give a hint of other impending contracts? I am anticipating further news from Kuwait and Saudi. Will we see Tanzania and Kenya where I suspect UKEF will be involved, hopefully with a shorter timescale than Indonesia. |
The World is becoming very dangerous. Russia threatens Europe. Trump neglects NATO and China grows its navy. Defence companies are in growth mode with massive profits anticipated. How does this impact SRT? More countries will be devoting resources to their coastal security with increasing focus on drone activity, underwater cables and pipelines. Drones can be surface or underwater. Can SRT deliver on drones search? Will a defence company, awash with cash, seek to acquire the Geovs platform? |
Back to 40p ish area. I forgot the 3rd rule of investing in small companies: any decent rise after a placing always goes back to the placing price at some point. |
Just looking around, there seems to be have been no UKEF supported contracts announced for Indonesia for the past couple of years, really since SRT's initial MOU, and that despite the Green Book mentioning several. SRT say that there are seven others waiting for theirs to be done once SRT's loan documents are issued which will be the new proforma agreement for all of them.
They are still trying to hire a bunch of people including for Indonesia. A new app is on the cards as well, whatever that is going to do. With the Nexus app, it seemed that the latency was a bit too much because of too much code. I don't know how easy it is to shrink that sort of thing. |
Dragging on a bit innit, is it still going ahead or not?? Either way, the mooted Feb. time scale for the brokers note has passed then. |
I hope that the pledge for UKEF by Kier Starmer to Ukraine does not result in withdrawing or delaying still further the UKEF arrangements for SRT. I hope it will be ring fenced. |
I don't know what they were going to spend it on, but at least funds won't need to be diverted from other potential projects. |
With the US seemingly keen on re-invigorating the Monroe doctrine, they may be happy to support Argentina's protection of its natural resources, particularly if exploitation is (a) manifestly illegal and (b) being done by the Chinese.
Proxy wars can take many forms!
ATB |
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