Yump. Help the market maker. Sell the lot and pay the tax |
How many more should I buy though?
Questions are being asked here by my long standing jam creditors and I have to promise something significant. |
If revenue for first half was £25.5m and profit was £2.5 and gross margin was 35%, this would suggest overheads for first half at £6.25m. I assume second half overheads will be much higher, due to increased headcount. If T/O for year is £80 m, and year overheads £15m with 35% margin, this might leave PBT at £13m for year. (No tax to pay due to C/F losses). Looking forward to brokers note, which hopefully will have three years being forecast, underwritten by contracts with scope for upgrades as more revenue added.
Current Market cap £105m. 13 X 20 =260 |
Bit of buying before any forecasts?
Hard to imagine forecasts not catching quite a bit of attention.
“IF” 10% is anywhere close to a net annual pbt, SRT is grossly undervalued. |
Would it be reasonable to assume that some of the costs of the contracts that will generate revenue this year, have already been incurred and would therefore be in the first half results ? |
Extrader
To be a bit picky, it is Ocean Infinity that is supposed to replace the cash collateral with a bank guarantee. SRT is then supposed to replace that with the UKEF and their own resources within the timescale you mentioned. Maybe OI has found it difficult to get a guarantee that does not require them to post cash collateral in turn. If so, the cheaper option all round would be to leave the position as is.
SRT still have to come up with the UKEF facility (up to 80% of the bond) and the remainder themselves. Given their poor actual knowledge of the timescales that UKEF operates on, anything they say at the AGM might not be reliable. I still suspect that the delay on the Indonesian loan is SRT specific, probably to do with the Philiipines situation. That should not, in theory, impact on this performance bond cover. |
FT Jan 16.
'Nato will send in drones and submarines to foil sabotage in Baltic sea'.
The world is fast changing. Clearly more opportunities for Ocean Infinity. The real message is that Countries need to know what is happening in their maritime domain. Data, data and more data, together with the ability to analyse data and identify threats.
Are we going to see coastguard and naval vessels with Geovs terminals on board, analysing data feeds? |
I see from the RNS that USD 21.4m provided 28th October by Ocean Infinity to cash-collateralise the Kwt$ 213m contract Performance Bond is still in escrow as at year end, 2 months later.
AIUI, SRT is supposed to substitute the cash provided by Ocean to SRT's bankers by a guarantee or alternative collateral of its own and release monies back to Ocean Infinity.
The alternative collateral basically coming gradually from the UKEF facility as this gets underway.
Assuming this sequence is broadly correct, could somebody ask Simon for an update on where we actually are with the UKEF facility going 'live'.
The reason I ask is my concern that we're eating into the rescue facility's 8 month term, after which - if the obligation to Ocean hasn't been settled - they'll be able to start accumulating 4m shares per month at a 15% discount....
TIA and ATB |
Positive piece from ST in the IC. Buy recommendation, TP of 75p “could prove conservative”. Let’s hope so! |
3 more new posts advertised by SRT including
International Business Development Manager - OEM Transceivers
Now that they have entered the radio market via Nexus, they are clearly intending to go at it in a big way. Huge potential. |
There’s been a few people on here recently, promising to tell the board how to run the company better.How did you get on ? |
What would be nice is if the forecast is met at the same time as the market picks up a bit.
Investors are still looking for small growth stocks. You could view AIM as a no-no, but most of the trashed businesses didn't have any traction, let alone revenue. Or maybe there will be a reduced pot of money chasing a reduced number of decent shares, in a more rational way. |
 Simon Tucker, SRT CEO commented; "This is a solid start to the year. The combination of our transceivers business, a £334m active contract book from multiple sovereign customers, each with long term system development plans and a £1.2bn pipeline of further prospects gives us significantly improved visibility over future financial performance. Both of our businesses are now well established and our future is underpinned by our portfolio of sophisticated technology and products, an established market position, and a global MDA market at the beginning of its growth curve."
I suspect that the long awaited and detailed 'Brokers note' will have to wait until the Indonesia contract gets the final legal sign off. The company will know how the £334 active contract book will be spread over years 2025, 2026 and 2027, together with margins per milestone. I suspect that the note will emphasise that these will be minimum figures with scope for upgrades. I optimistically predicted 100p before the end of January. However, I was anticipating the brokers note to be the trigger for the uplift. I am also assuming that people believe the forecast in the note!
PS.
Those who are trying to give this a fair share price should not totally ignore that we shall soon have a 24% shareholder! |
Card is on a pe of 6 and that's a low risk share with 6% yield and upper single digit profit growth.
So a pe of ten is good going these days.
SRT might seem cheap but there are others that are much cheaper and much safer.
The AIM market is a disaster |
Guesswork at the moment as no forecasts, but if they get anywhere near 10mln pbt, with a massive revenue jump, the pe won’t be at 10 for long ! Pets at home is higher than 10 even after a forecast profit hit from NI ! |
OK yump seems fairly priced then on a pe of 10 given the terrible historic record of meeting forecasts. |
Why not just say pbt at 10% as in first half. Thats good for contracting.
At say 100mln for 2025 and 10mln pbt thats earnings of 4p.
Multiply by your own rating to get a share price |
At least there is a profit
What is realistic going forward.
Say 200m turnover per annum at 30% margin giving 60m gross and 40m net and market cap of 400m ?
Share price target 2 quid.
Is that realistic ? |
Thank you AE |
gaslight, yes you are missing the previous comments about this. To save you time this is the reply I got from SRT when I enquired. See post 15302
I received a prompt reply from Louise, copied below:
"Hi Robert thank you for your email. Yes, METS was indeed very successful. Unfortunately, what your fellow shareholders found was a development page for the X100 which is not yet live. This will be live in the coming weeks along with a carefully timed mass marketing campaign designed to build interest and further preorders before we start to ship product from our UK and EU warehouses in the first week of February. In the meantime, the website developers have corrected their error and there is now no mention of the X100 on the website.
Thank you for the information."
and shortly, followed up with a another message:
"Thank you Robert, I should mention if anyone is still seeing links to these pages it is probably because their browser has cached the pages and they will need to refresh to remedy.
Kind regards.
Louise Coates
Transceiver Sales Director
em-trak Marine Electronics" |
I still find it very odd that there is more information about Nexus/X100 on dealer websites around the world, than there is from Em-trak's own website ( where there is no information at all )
Some dealer sites provide the link to Em-trak's website which merely states 'page not available'
Am I missing something? |
What will broker's forecast state re expected profits ? And share price target. Maybe Countryman5 will be right and we shoot past 100p ! :-) |
It would be nice to hope that spiking of the share price has gone, as that has made sell/hold decisions difficult.
Perhaps there’s enough skepticism now to stop that until results actually appear.
There may still be a herd waiting in the background though. |
pyman
please repeat your last two posts......daily..... |
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