"I suspect ...", "I believe ...", "Hopefully ...", "Let us hope ...".
It would be nice if you would try dealing in facts, Countryman5, rather than flights of fancy. |
I suspect that Mr T is spending most, if not all of his time in the ME, primarily in Kuwait. I believe that he mentioned further work in Kuwait in his webcast today. Hopefully they have a good in country partner to do the heavy lifting. It will be interesting to learn about the management structure, when we visit the AGM in a few weeks time. Let us hope that Saudi does not push too hard, too soon. |
Indeed-over optimism is a feature of both companies, but tomorrow is another day |
 OT There's a very familiar scenario at TAND where major potential sales are delayed, despite "positive discussions". It's not really surprising when you consider the size of some of the customers and the possible monetary value of their contracts. Shell, Wartsila and who can that global retailer be with tens of thousands of conveyor gearboxes in their warehouses? Hmmm that's a tricky one.
Regarding SRT, it would be callous not to feel some sympathy for ST who cannot reveal exactly why things are not moving as fast as we and he would like. Judging by his short sleeved shirt and somewhat tanned face, I doubt he was in MSN for the web cast.
Looking at the fundamentals, SRT have the right products, there is clearly widespread demand for them, there are no alternative products that could displace SRT's position as the preferred supplier in most categories. SRT now has the financial backing of a wealthy partner who is equally unable to make things happen faster than the customer determines. We as shareholders are "passengers" on the journey to use one of Simon's favourite expressions. I hope to be here when we finally arrive and to celebrate having had the patience not to abandon a company that deserves a bit of good fortune. Santa, are you listening? |
Sorry to hear that, but I would have thought that the better trade (if I understand the connection correctly) would be to be long one and short the other? Choose your own direction :¬) |
I suspect some like me will be both given the connection |
Lucky we're invested here, not there, then! |
Meanwhile a horrible warning on Tan Delta today with ‘pipeline delays’ |
“Here here” - general waving of order papers in the house |
Ok I have been a small investor for over a decade (attended the 2014 AGM) and I admire Simon's persistence. I genuinely believe this is breakout time providing they have the finance skills to 'navigate' the challenges of a rapidly rising revenue curve against the backdrop of performance milestones. Astonished this has not been a PI target but hope it maintains its independence and does not become another UK victim of differential valuations. |
Recording available |
The most important comment for me was his final statement "I look forward to updates in the coming weeks"! Overall. a good summary I thought and next stop is the AGM! |
What is new? Indonesia, we have seen the recent gov communique. It is the very final paperwork, which I believe are known condition precedents, and then it is delivery. I thought the most interesting info was that the Kuwait project has started. This might be the delivery of the control centre, using kit waiting at MSN for another contract. This might allow for cash flow in December. There was mention again of systems contracts in Africa, where Tanzania might be the earliest. It is interesting that the share price was about 60p when Indonesia was announced and since then we have had Kuwait. He indicated about additional contracts for Kuwait. I still strongly believe that neighbouring Saudi will eventually want to match its neighbour Kuwait. Saudi is building this new city and holiday resort. It will need maritime security everywhere and it will want the Kuwait 'gold standard'. I look forward to the brokers note which I assume will come when Indonesia starts. |
Certainly I'd expect unbridled optimism...... |
SURELY GOOD NEWS COMING ON THURSDAY MORNING....?? |
yump
Oh yes! prof. Hannah Fry at her finest................ |
Hi Extrader
I don't think the two are connected and I am pretty sure No10 would not issue a communique including items that were not going to happen. However, if it comes down to tea leaves try this from the broker talking about sources of finance:
'UKEF General Export Fund: Working capital requirements for the $180m Indonesian CG contract announced in May-23 (link here) is funded primarily through the UKEF GEF programme.
— Current status: The UKEF loan is a government-to-government loan and enables SRT to be paid at the delivery of agreed revenue milestones over the project length
by UKEF. The loan agreement is currently being finalised between UKEF and the SEA government with key elements already agreed prior signing in May-23. We await final agreement before implementation.
— The UKEF financing associated to the Kuwait $213m contract is a separate agreement type to the $180m SEA UKEF agreement and completion is expected on a substantially faster timescale to partially replace the $21.4m cash loan provided by Ocean Infinity.'
This is a muddle. They have not got anything yet from the GEF which is called the general export facility, but they might do. It provides essentially pre-export finance which in SRT's case will then be repaid by Santander with their lender to Indonesia hat on to Santander with their GEF provider hat on. All that once the main UKEF loan comes through which is non-recourse to SRT.
The third type of financing which they hope to get is for the bond to replace OI's guarantee. I think that is 80% of the value leaving SRT to find some $4 million.
I don't think that UKEF is involved in any other aspects of Kuwait, so any ratios or whatever to do with Indonesia (and I seriously doubt there are any given the still parlous state of SRT's balance sheet) will probably not be affected. Much more likely to do with concerns about how the contract was won given the Philippines.
Other big aspects are why do SRT pay half of the first £45 million milestone to the in country partner? Do they provide equipment for that first milestone or is it a prepayment for construction work?
More for the AGM, I think. |
Meanwhile this is an interesting problem:
Take a circle of radius 1 touching a circle of radius 2. If you roll the first circle around the second, keeping them in contact, how many revolutions does the first take to get back to its starting point ? |
This is all too complicated. I’m going to try something easier, like working out the boundary conditions of a black hole’s event horizon. |
I think that Countryman5 has Stockholm Syndrome. |
.."Imagine the UK civil service cannot provide a bond for Kuwait. Fascinating reading of the tealeaves is needed..."
Two weeks ago we were told (hat tip LaValmy) : 'We welcome the MoUs and other agreements signed between our governments today, and the associated deals reached between our businesses.''
With the continuing deafening silence about the status ('live' or 'still in the works'), I'm beginning to wonder whether SRT hasn't been able to satisfy a Condition Precedent to activation?
Could the seemingly out-of-left-field windfall of a Kuwaiti contract (Countryman5's '8 years of dithering, then out of the blue') and attendant financial implications even have come as something of a surprise to SRT (?)
How prominently did Kuwait figure in SRT's own calculations...and/or the projections it provided for UKEF's calculations? Were SRT's own bankers wrong-footed?
Is UKEF having to re-visit/re-confirm its support, if there's any concern about an 'overtrading' risk ?
Perhaps someone close to management can seek clarification on these specific points - or elicit an alternative explanation for what is an increasingly untenable situation : if there's something/anything amiss, ALL shareholders need to be told.
AFAICS
GLA |
We are now in 2024. You say that these 200m-250m of sales will take place between 1 July 2026 and June 2027. Unfortunately, it is 18 months until the start of July 2026. Perhaps we should revisit this at that point ! And hope, that in the meantime, the other 'imminent' , this calendar year, etc, projects actually start and can be funded, otherwise SRT will not be independent by July 2026. |
I don’t know what’s going to happen and when.
What constitutes the “start” of a contract ? |
The recent RNS states ‘SRT now enters the new financial year with a runway of £320m of system projects that we expect to implement over the next two years, a further pipeline worth up to £1.2bn of prospects’.
I am predicting that the year ending June 2027 will deliver between £200 and £250 million of systems sales. I am assuming a profit margin of 28%, after allowing for a major slice of company overheads. The remaining overheads, if any, will be more than covered by transceivers with PBT coming in between £60 and £75 million. This assumes that SRT is still an independent company and has not been swallowed up by Ocean Infinity, Airbus, Leonardo, EDGE, or one of the other global defence contractors. Buy or sell? Take advice from Oliver Plunkett, who gets a vote of confidence. |
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