Birdie
Which contract was that ? |
Will there be a bun fight by shareholders for the shares available at 35p? Will it only be for 'sophisticated investors? |
9 degrees-we are yet to see the market because there are no signed deals of note to shout about.Just the wretched VSP-aging yet not maturing over how many years.
Security and surveillance are probably more important than any other time in history, yet the take up is incredibly slow.It should be like selling PPE in a pandemic but it’s not feeling that way
As Homeboy notes, SRT have plumbed for selling the whole package-tech, system and installation.That suggests to me that Tucker is creating the market which maybe doesn’t know it needs it.
As for CM, for all his insight, the loaded questions, the imagines, the what ifs, the supposes, the one thing he missed was running out of cash again.
We await the accounts with interest as it will at least provide some hard evidence amongst the fog |
I sold out when the company lied about a contract some years ago.Told me they were still in with a shout weeks after it had been awarded to another outfit.There were other shall we say episodes when they were economical with the truth.Could not trust them after that. |
 lol lavalmy,,, you had a pop at me for being some sort of shorter and yet it now seems reality is dawning on you,,, finally
this company is being sold off on the cheap because it always needs money, fixating on big contract numbers is foolish, that's just turnover,, when and if it ever arrives
as they say,,turnover is vanity,,cash is sanity,,and srt never has any
as said before, they're dealing in fairly complex international project financing, srt's skill set is product design which is outsourced for manufacture,, they have no real skills or experience in these projects and have been doing everything on a steep learning curve,,,they might command decent percentage knocking out black boxes and white labelling,, but how much can you stick on a bunch of tv screens or radars,, i doubt if they can pass on a 10% handling charge
oi will likely scoop this up at some point and it's unlikely to be at decent premium
can someone go find countryman and get him to blow the srt trumpet,,, flagging share price aint looking grand is it |
LaValmy
It sounds as if you’ve regrettably over-invested in one company.
Unfortunately our approach in the UK to placings, even for working capital for rapid growth is negative. That means businesses can’t easily go raising large amounts of equity in one go. So there’s a miserable drip drip in many cases.
The history of hype on AIM doesn’t help.
The US loves the idea of big as a result of hard work and positivity. We love the idea of getting something quickly and easily for little effort.
So becoming a consultant is rated more than being a tech. Entrepreneur. |
On the subject of valuation. Once SRT is seen to be delivering multiple contracts in these “security̶1; areas, I don’t think eps/profits will mean much for the valuation.
Because the valuation will be what other businesses are prepared to pay for it, which will be a lot higher than what pi’s would pay for the shares.
Normally its the other way around, but SRT is not a box-shifter with no moat.
The main “danger” imo is that as with many of our promising tech, shareholders cash in too early because we have no interest in building size.
We prefer to blame governments for lack of growth, while willingly shooting ourselves in the foot. |
One rather obvious question is how is company is available at such a bargain price? Over ten years ago, Peniket was copping flak on here (the previous incarnation) for having sold some shares at 40p. Now it is well done SRT if they can sell some at 35p.
If it ever begins to look like there will be a next time, I will have sold by then. I should have done so at 40p after the first Indonesian disaster, but Tucker went out of his way to meet me at Bristol airport to persuade me to stay on as a shareholder. |
Lavalmy
Can you explain the $10mln in opportunity cost comment please? |
I think the management team have done a great job to enter a marketplace that is way above the capacity of a company this size. Well done to them all and for sticking with it aginst all odds . |
Thanks Alter-25pc is a key point under the Companies Act as you know |
I’m forming the view Super that OI has no choice but to put something up.The accounts , the long awaited accounts, will reveal all.
The dance is almost complete-the good new s of the contract award, the funding, then the 2024 accounts-probably tomorrow if they stick to the timetable |
One rather obvious conclusion is that OI thinks it's a bargain at this price, and is happy to take as much as it can get. It surely can only be a matter of time before they attempt to take full control - perhaps the next time ST needs money?
I would have no problem with this, provided the price was relatively sensible, but would positively welcome it if it left me without the systems business, but with an ongoing stake in a separate transceivers+ business. Not an outcome I think very likely, but one can always hope... |
"Anyone know what percentage OI will have after all the dilution?"
Using the numbers I posted earlier in 14982, I have created a spreadsheet based on the current number of shares in issue and the number following the fund raise and the 20m warrants. This says OI will own 23% and if they exercise the 4m warrants that increase to nearly 24%. In arriving at these numbers I have assumed the 7m shares for existing holders are not taken up and pass to OI. This shows the maximum position OI could reach but obviously it's very unlikely. The percentage owned by others drops from 46% to 38%, again if no-one increases their current holdings.
Please bear in mind that the total number of shares in issue goes up when warrants are exercised but I've allowed for that in my calculations.
There are shareholdings I am unable to quantify eg LaValmy trust and probably others so given all the other variables please take the percentages with a pinch of salt. Nevertheless it's pretty clear that OI will have a commanding stake. |
Every time they have said that a customer needs a system urgently nothing much happens and/or they come a cropper. Saudi comes to mind.
In this case, they could certainly have managed the negotiations so that implementation starts in six months. They currently don't have the cash to order any equipment and are still looking for the three staff they think they need to do the project. Starting on Thursday.
Given that they will have a slow start and that the timescale is likely to be over-ambitious, how much of the bond will be called?
Or to take a rosy scenario in which all goes well, the share price recovers and gets to 70p in six months. This short term loan will have cost close to $10 million in opportunity cost.
As it stands, we will have to wait until there is a broker's note for some idea of the margins on this and the other contracts, but I don't expect that they will be high and I do expect that fixed costs will rise as usual. 2025/6 should in theory generate the highest turnover but I doubt that eps will hit double digits then or in the foreseeable future. |
Where is CM today after all the pushing and shoving over the last couple of weeks?
Anyone know what percentage OI will have after all the dilution?25pc plus would give them a pretty strong position on corporate activity |
LaValmy, I think the company is worth around £90m.
Where better should SRT raise moreorless immediately $21.4m for the performance bond?
Or you think better to ask Kuwait if they would be happy to wait 6 months (or whatever) before contract starts?
Meantime the company anyway needs cash for day to day expenses. Hence the issue of 21.5m shares at 35p.
Let's hope SRT do not need to issue any further equity in the case they cannot repay the loan within 8 months. |
Spin back over the last 18 months and you will see the promises and forecasts in a different light and to remind all, the company isn’t punching above its weight other than in raising expectations and money at higher and higher numbers
Maybe we will see some commonsense with the OI guy on board |
I don't know about that YumYum.
How much do you think the company is currently worth if they might need £7 million of new equity in three years?
They haven't got financial security with that. They have sold 20 million shares at 35p (at a minimum) for a six month loan, funds they will not need in six months time. |
Well said YUMYUM! |
I think it is a pretty good deal under the circumstances.
Powerful and rich Ocean Infinity are standing behind little SRT who manage somehow to punch far beyond their weight.
It is a game changing result. Dilution, financial security, further dilution options already in place for continued financial security, and a massive contract to start in a few days. I think we can say goodbye for good now to those share price lows.
Well done SRT and thank you Ocean Infinity.
I am happy not grumpy. |
I’m not quite as ‘disappointed’ as you Homeboy but the smoke and mirrors really has to stop.The 24 numbers are likely to be poor and the accounts will reference going concern, broken loan covenants but also the money coming in over the next few weeks from OI.You can see the sequence of events all now fitting into place.
The reality now is that if these contracts materialise, they still need installation -not easy in these jurisdictions |
Yes.
Full marks for effort, though. |
as i said last month,,,,,"homeboy24 Sep '24 - 16:11 - 14711 of 15023 Edit
0 1 0
must be getting close to 2m left in cash,,,another 2 months worth of pay days,, they'll have burned through most of the ocean infinity and beyond life line by now, they'll be having to tap into the revolving facility soon,,,,, just a question,,, if they had to fudge the year end dates to get a contract that didn't happen in the end, will they have another balance sheet problem that prevents any sane country from putting multi million dollar projects their way when they've got no munnee left
same old srt" |
Register to chat with like-minded investors on our interactive forums.
Hot Features
Premium
