Perhaps somewhat timeous ?
FT Headline today
Indonesia says it drove Chinese coastguard ships out of disputed waters
Beijing’s sweeping maritime claims and muscular enforcement actions have been creating friction in South China Sea
Let's hope it helps people focus !
GLA |
‘The options vest at £3. They cost nothing.’
Yes, true, hence my suspicion they are just a bit of window dressing and if & when SRT get taken out, I bet there’s a take out clause re those options & it sure won’t be £3.
Which I would fully agree with, as Tucker here is the driving force and done an incredible job.
Agree with your take re SRT becoming entrenched etc, which is why we won’t see a take out at an acceptable level in CM’s imv wildly optimistic time frame. |
The options vest at £3. They cost nothing.
I would agree that no-one would pay £660 million today and would also argue that significant value can only be had if these large contracts are implemented correctly (and the system works as marketed) and there is evidence of both recurring revenue and follow-on contracts with more to come, i.e. that SRT are entrenched.
Indonesia is a case in point. SRT's contract is with Bakamla, but is Bakamla itself sufficiently entrenched as a coast guard? Fisheries currently do their own thing, as do the Sea and Coast Guard, Navy and others.
The other and equally important point about being truly entrenched is Tucker. In the short and medium term, SRT will not reach the stage where they can do without him. Sure he could remain post-acquisistion, but anyone who knows him even slightly would doubt that he would stay put. |
Final results are expected in October. It's almost November! |
 If there was ever a case for partial state ownership then this is one. Or a workers vote that can block takeovers.
Without that, we're just going to let go of all our potential world-class businesses.
The US buys up anything in the UK that might pose any sort of threat to their world ownership. The only negative with SRT is that it doesn't yet have repeating revenues. I think that would be a major catalyst for a takeover. Unlikely VC's would be interested as they can't cut back on staff or do any rationalisation, unless they separated systems and widget sides of the business.
I would rather have a 5 bagger in 20 years than in 3 years as a result of yet another UK business disappearing.
Unfortunately we are, in the words of both parties, "open for business" and that means "open to be bought" most of the time, not open for proper inward investment such as Nissan in the North East, or Toyota in the Midlands.
I was horrified to discover that "direct inward investment" includes buy outs and they are the major part of that so called investment. (I read a book!) |
I do read CMs insights and most are what ifs and ‘suspects̵7;-it’s been the same for years.
What we actually need are firm signed and cash backed deals-this probably after a shocking set of 15 month accounts where we still have no idea what the collective loss is.Anyone on here got a clue?
As always, I’m interested in cashflow and the current liquidity at their disposal, including compliance with loan covenants.
We will know soon enough |
My understanding is that both Indonesia and Kuwait are due for completion in about two years. Indonesia is ready for delivery with a LOT of work to be done on Kuwait. If the brokers note, underpinned by contracts, suggests profits of £25 to £30 million for this year and next, such a fast growing high tech company might command a p/e of high teens. Then add a bid premium. Ocean Infinity has deep pockets of gold and silver. It approached SRT about buying a stake and it has everything to gain by making an early bid. Why wait for more contracts? That is my reasoning for an early bidding war. Once the contest starts there will be a winner in relatively short order. A company like SRT does not come along very often. |
Thank you alter ago
Yes, we will have to wait and see what happens.
At 222m shares in issue, then the m.cap will have to exceed £660m before Tucker’s £3 share options are at break even, let alone at a profit. And that’s assuming no more shares issued! That 7.5 times up from current levels. Hope Tucker has that buy out clause for his options as no one but no one is going to pay over £660m for the business and certainly not in a time frame of a year. |
I've cross checked on Stockopedia and, if it can be relied upon, my earlier numbers are correct for David Brierwood, David Newlands, Mr and Mrs Laing, Jonathon Horne, but Mr and Mrs Persey have added in July and now hold 17.4%.
These holdings total 38%. Other holdings eg. La Valmy trust, Simon Tucker and other directors which SRT says equates to 8.25% are additional. In all it still looks like over 46% is held by a few (plus OI's 8.89%)
Other PI's will just have to wait to see how this plays out. |
You’re welcome alter ego
Let’s hope so re low ball offer, but it was interesting to see CM in effect run up the white flag with the just one more agm to go. As CM is a major shareholder, not a comment to be ignored. Personally I feel more time is required to extract full value here. A year won’t be enough for anything other than a low ball offer. |
Thank you LeighFord, I knew some of the data might be out of date as I said. SRT has directors holding 8.25% but I don't know when that was last updated. Nevertheless, there are some significant holdings in a few hands so a low ball offer just isn't going to work. |
I will certainly be throwing my 0.12% shareholding behind that small group! 😊 |
The fundamental point remains the same, viz that the company will only be for sale when a small group of shareholders agree that it should be. |
ps, some of the other % are obviously wrong, eg Laing & Horne, similar number of shares but vastly different % |
Alter ego
I think your analysis wants updating?
Eg, Rogers % must be wrong. Below rns indicates there’s about 222.7m shares, in which case Rogers holding is not 12% and Tuckers 3.2m is not 1%, assuming the quantities are correct
Regards
LF
16 January 2024
SRT MARINE SYSTEMS PLC
(AIM: SRT)
("SRT" or the "Company")
Holdings in Company
SRT, the AIM-quoted developer and supplier of maritime surveillance systems and navigation safety products, announces that following the Second Admission of the recently announced Fundraising Ocean Infinity Group Limited ("Ocean Infinity") hold 19,800,000 ordinary shares of 0.1 pence each in the Company, representing 8.89 per cent. of the Company's issued share capital. Ocean Infinity's holding reflects a transfer of 200,000 ordinary shares to its CEO, Oliver Plunkett. |
Good analysis alter ego
Although OI could want it low if they are the bidders!
And Rogers and Horne would surely like to cash in their chips
But I don’t doubt Persey/CM wants a full price! |
I wonder if there’s a ‘take over’ clause in Tucker’s options? Would be entirely normal and fair, as a take over could mean he hasn’t had sufficient time to develop the business.
Eg, in the event of a take over all options priced at 30p, or whatever figure they agree on. Hard to believe this isn’t covered. |
What price for a takeover of SRT? I'm pretty sure C5 has commented on some significant individual shareholdings that would require assent to any offer. If you look up major shareholdings and directors holdings you should see the following:
Simon Francis Rogers 13,508,900 12.00%
Simon Richard Tucker 3,280,377 1.00%
Jonathan Horne 7,740,100 3.52%
MR IAN LAING & MRS CAROLINE LAING 7,700,000 6.03%
La Valmy Trust 3,837,770 3.00%
Mr and Mrs Persey 30,726,184 13.56%
Mr & Mrs Brierwood 20,558,567 9.23%
Ocean Infinity Group Limited 19,800,000 8.89%
I cannot vouch for the absolute accuracy of this as it was compiled from two different sources (SRT and thisismoney) but it comes to 57.23% of the company. I don't see these shareholders happily selling out for anything less than their collective view of what SRT is worth and IMO that number doesn't start with a 1. |
Results this month, would expect agm in December |
Sp has to go some for Tucker’s options to be worth something significant.
He fully deserves a bumper pay out
04 May 2022
SRT MARINE SYSTEMS PLC
(AIM: SRT)
("SRT" or the "Company")
Grant of share options
SRT Marine Systems plc, a global provider of maritime surveillance, monitoring and management systems, announces that share options have been granted to Simon Tucker, Chief Executive Officer.
On 3 May 2022, options were granted over 2,500,000 ordinary shares of 0.1p each and are exercisable at the nominal value. The options vest between 3 and 10 years in five equal tranches when the average mid-market closing share price exceeds each of 125p, 150p, 200p, 250p, 300p over a twenty day period. The latest closing price of the shares was 33p, the first tranche of options representing an increase of in excess of 3.8x the current share price. |
If what CM says is true, then it’s a shame that SRT will lose its independence soon.
Question is what will we get paid for it?
Given the current state of the markets, then the fancy premiums suggested to the current value seem unlikely
Hope the buy out reflects SRT’s world leading position, anything less than a £1 would seem poor, imo. |
Does anyone know roughly when is the AGM? |
When Kuwait (several vacancies on SRT website)and Indonesia contracts are started, I assume that there will be a brokers note. It will be able to give forecasts, underwritten by contracts. At some stage the market will focus on who will become SRT’s new owner. Obviously Ocean Infinity with its large stake, will have an advantage, especially if they are part of the Kuwait contract. However, O I will not have a clear run. I suspect that Airbus and Leonardo were amongst the disappointed parties for the Kuwait contract. I note that the Californian company Teledyne bought Raymarine for about $8 BILLION in 2021.Teledyne supplies marine sensors, cameras and sensor management systems. I will be very surprised if there is more than one more AGM to enjoy cakes. |
Surely we can’t rely on Lammy! |
hxxps://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/uk-deepens-ties-with-indonesia-and-south-korea-as-lammy-tours-indo-pacific/ar-AA1sziV7
Well, they are waiting for a signing photo-op and when the head of UKEF was there recently nothing happened, so who knows? |
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