Prabowo is expected to remain cautious, however, regarding China’s aggressive posture in the South China Sea. China's nine-dash line, which it claims to delineate its ancient fishing grounds, overlaps with Indonesia's exclusive economic zone near Indonesia’s Natuna islands.
“I think, first and foremost, he would also make sure that he attends all the meetings and negotiation forums. This time he is not going to just send the foreign minister,” Dinna added.
“I think this is what's going to be different between him and Joko Widodo. He is going to make sure he can talk in person with [Chinese President] Xi as president. He is also a very confident man in approaching other major countries interested in keeping the South China Sea safe.”
Will he want a fishing system like the Philippines? I wonder if Mr T is in Indonesia this weekend? |
I just thought that it may be the new President wants to get the glory of the investment in maritime security, especially as there has been criticism in the local press of the lack of investment. |
I just thought that it may be the new President wants to get the glory of the investment in maritime security, especially as there has been criticism in the local press of the lack of investment. |
Is this what the Indonesia contract has been waiting for?
I think it's waiting for UKEF to formally sign the loan to the Indonesian Government. It is said to have been approved so it's the signing that's causing the delay. At least that's how I see it. |
A new President on Sunday. Is this what the Indonesia contract has been waiting for? |
Is there a fundraising in progress ? They never asked me. Not once. Never. If no fundraising in progress then I will buy some more shares from the market. |
Announcing the contract award in advance of signing certainly looks like it had a purpose.We have still to see the 24 accounts which will be awful but will carry a lot of hope.
My worry with the loan facility is covenant breaches-happened before as we know.
The sooner they sign something the better |
Kooth raised at a significant premium when they announced a $188m 5yr contract. SRT have a $45m milestone payment due when they sign Malaysia and a £16.7m facility, so near term funding should be fine. If they do need to raise, it could be at a premium (on the back of a signed contract) |
AE
The GEF is pretty much a bank decision - UKEF guarantees 80% of up to £5 million on a no-look basis, anything above that they have to sign off. This is completely different to a UKEF loan to a sovereign or other purchaser.
Re LGB, I think they have headroom of some £16 million but £6 million of that will be required to roll over maturing issues next month and December.
It certainly makes no sense to fund very short-term spikes in working capital with equity, but then again if they hadn't spent their equity buying inventory to sit on the tarmac at MSN? The one good thing about this kamikaze working capital management is that it can ship quickly and convert to cash. |
The price is around 60% higher than two weeks ago so a placing does make sense. Last one was December 2023 for 10mill at 35p? |
If SRT needs medium term funding, they have in the past used LGB Capital where I believe there is headroom for additional capital see:
LaV, I think you also wrote about GEF providing export finance up to £5m if certain criteria met.
I guess Richard Hurd is heavily focussed on the Performance Bond at present but some sources of capital may be easier to access if it is for working capital to enable a contract to be fulfilled. |
fft
It all depends on when the Bakamla project starts. The first milestone is in effect already paid for and ready to ship and should convert to cash quickly - others will have rights to some of that cash inflow. Whether what is left is sufficient to fund the next milestone, which is mainly installation of the first one, I do not know, nor whether it would fund the first one for Kuwait. Saudi is similar to Bakamla, though they are not quick payers, needing to cross-check before kit leaves the UK, after it gets to Saudi etc. |
Potential placing to fund the roll out ? As payments are not up front there will be a working capital increase. Especially if more than 1 contract comes in at once. Could be debt (did i read somewhere that 12% is being offered ?).Btw, given srt previous on releasing a good news RNS followed a few days later by a placing (I was hit badly a few years ago) I have been surprised and curious that they didn't use the bounce to get something away.The current price action does seem to indicate confidence that some sort of funding action will take place soonish. If they get away without it, that will be fantastic |
There seems to be a gap from the latest RNS at ~37, that might be a good target for a pullback. |
I'm getting a hammer ready to raid the piggy bank - suspect it will undershoot 40p a bit, so buying at 40p possible. |
The current share price discounts:
1 - Bakamla Indonesia contract starting soon - It is all agreed but who knows when it
starts. What seems clear to me is that it will start soon. All is now agreed.
2 - Kuwait contract starting soon - It is all agreed but needs full
contract signing, which includes performance bond. Expected by end-November but
company expectations history is a disgrace of no learning. New paradigm? We will
see.
3.- Smallish ME contract starting sson
4.- Another smallish ME contract starting soon.
Take away those discounts and the share price should much better represent the astoundingly low valuation here. Failure on more than one of the above will mean takeover at a very low price. Sadly but correctly.
Just my opinion. |
Are you going to write a book ? |
 I imagine that the Board has a strategic plan to deal with the substantial growth that is fast approaching on the systems business. Employee numbers are rising to meet the extra business. Some are located abroad and the UK team are split between MSN and Cardiff. I understand that working from home suits many, who obviously visit MSN and Cardiff when required. MSN works well with the adjacent dedicated warehouse and nearby hotel for visitors. (A Saudi team will be visiting for the factory inspection before kit is dispatched). My understanding is that the Cardiff office space allows for expansion as demand increases. Selecting new team members is always a challenge and occasionally some choices do not fit and have to move on. I suspect that the real challenge is getting the right structure at the top. Now that the cash is about to flow, Simon's workload needs to reduce. Although customers only want to deal with Simon, that is clearly not possible as the number and size of contracts develop. |
Kuwait, with 500 Km of coastline, engages with an initial $200 million systems contract. Neighbouring Saudi has a 2640 Km border. How much can Saudi afford, or does it want an inferior skeletal system? Saudi border guard will not be impressed. Saudi is spending vast amounts on its new town and resort but surely it wants to know what is going on in its waters, especially with all of its fractious neighbours. Simon often says, but I suspect the market does not comprehend, that it will take many years to finish a comprehensive system. Saudi has only stuck a toe in the water , whereas Kuwait is starting with quite a detailed package; possibly including autonomous vessels from Ocean Infinity. One thing is certain, technology will always be providing new offerings for SRT to bolt on. |
As I said a few days ago, it’s the David Brent ‘good news and bad news’ trick in my view-hence the announcement of an unsigned contract.I sincerely hope it gets signed in short order |
Hi LaValmy,
Let's hope so!
thanks for the extra 'colour'.
ATB |
Extrader
No doubt they did intend to publish the results during October, but that was expecting the Bakamla contract to have started in the 5th quarter and it also had a lot to do with having the financial ratios in a good enough condition to bid for an important contract.
They claim that the contract has since been split into two and that therefore they don't have to meet those ratios. Much more likely is that the contracts have been delayed or that SRT is no longer eligible because of the ombudsman issue. I think it is the former and have no doubt it is/was the PCG.
I really don't think they will release the results until the Bakamla contract starts and then the AGM date etc. |
So who is going to back up the truck at 40p ?
Indeed!
The FYE (extended) results are due out by end October. From the RNS
.."The Company intends to publish audited final results for the 15 months ended 30 June 2024 during October 2024..."
Meanwhile, implementation of the 'fast-track' Kuwait contract is unlikely to start before end - November :
.."."The award is subject only to completion of the formal contract and associated performance bond which are now underway and expected to be completed prior to the end of next month, with implementation commencing immediately thereafter..."
So, paperwork and PB hoped for before end November.....
On past form, we'll have the 'awful' results before the definitive contract....AND any peripheral fallout from the US election fireworks in-between.
Aargh!
GLA |
So who is going to back up the truck at 40p ? |
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