Agreed plus the more installs they have the more reference sites they have and the more opportunities that will come their way, snowball effect.
But they have to sign them up and get moving !!!! |
My view is that the three long-awaited contracts will push the price to the record levels that we saw last year briefly. The real catalyst will be this new ME contract, worth almost as much as all three and with no lengthy gestation period.
Tucker was at pains to point out again that the bulk of what they are working on forms only a small part of their customers overall plans. If that is so, the real value of these initial contracts far surpasses the near-term monetary value. Incumbency is everything and it has long been a worry that the longer the wait the more likely someone with deep pockets could elbow SRT aside and become that incumbent. Conversely, the more SRT can get that initial phase delivered, the more likely they are to be bought out by a big player. I hope that they will not because I see more value running with the business than selling out early. |
Have been watching and waiting and although I feel we'll have a pull back over the next couple of days / weeks and when the accounts are published. I bought a starter position today and will add on those pull backs (and on contract news).
It's been forever jam tomorrow but maybe just maybe we're starting to see some actual traction. If so I agree with the sentiment that we'll be re-rating quickly.
I did a quick check on the directors remuneration and all looks very modest Tucker on £225k, share options priced at 50p, 75p 125p, 150p, 200p 250p 300p.
Cash looks tight, current projected runway to April 2025 and that will obviously be extended if one of the contract milestones is hit (£45m from Indonesia would be lovely) |
BTW I had a look at UKEF 23/24 accounts and in the Indo-Pacific region they only managed to underwrite £377 million of new business. SRT's £135 million is therefore significant.
I also get the impression that their political masters would like to see more action in that region (fast-growing economies etc) and that UKEF would too to diversify their portfolio.
They do a monthly milestones section at the beginning. I expect to see October 2024's entry to include £135 million for SRT's Bakamla project. |
C5
Oman had a dramatic change in leadership starting in 2020, which given COVID etc, is not that long ago. It also has a long coastline which borders Yemen on one side. Kuwait hardly has any coastline but it too has had a change of government recently.
From listening again, it would seem that Bahrain is to be signed before he goes to the other country tomorrow. I doubt that he would get the nod for two at the same time. |
Has anyone been foolhardy enough to do a quick calc as to what the share price might be by New Year if $420M worth of contracts get signed? 🤔 |
No RNS needed as nothing new. I've lost count of how many imminent/within weeks type statements we've heard. Let's hope this time is different, as if all four contracts start before year end I'd imagine we'll be off to the races! |
 Any thoughts on the $200m ME country, apart from Kuwait?
Kuwait has been talking for about 8 years and has suddenly got its act together and appears to be pushing SRT for a signing. When ST says he is in the ME, I suspect that he is spending time in three countries. It will not be just ST from SRT visiting the ME. I sometimes think that shareholders fail to understand the amount of work that is entailed in educating / persuading potential customers about what the SRT offering is. Many Shareholders just look at the contract size and estimate the profit margin at about 28%. Some shareholders moan that the company has spent lots of money on development and fail to understand the amount of work that it has taken to create this world leading company. We should be VERY proud of the SRT team who, against very long odds, have created a global business that is beating the likes of Airbus and Leonardo.
I anticipate that there will be a brokers note when Indonesia and Saudi are finally signed. Because there is a lot of kit in stock there should be impressive cash flows for this half year. Hold onto your hat when you see those figures!!
When Kuwait? is signed, SRT will be the undisputed leader in MDM systems. Fortunately for us there are no institutions above 3% yet. There are a handful of shareholders who control in excess of 50% of the company. I understand that they know the potential of the company and are not sellers. When the cash starts flowing the company can increase its payroll to allow it to deal with all of the work. I once bought into a carpet company that grew 45 times. I anticipate that we shall see £3 per share and Mr T will get his well earned shares.
PS,
If oil rich Kuwait is spending $200 million on a system, how much will neighbour Saudi spend? Will MBS want Kuwait to have a better system? |
even after today's price rise the company is still valued at less than £60m ($80m approx). If those 4 contracts start in the next weeks (it looks like Oct/Nov for all of them really) and more following behind in the pipeline then SRT Marine looks very seriously misvalued at the current share price. |
Just watched the presentation and would whole heartedly agree with that summation |
In ST's preamble he says that lack of hard RNS news might be perceived as nothing going on but that actually quite the opposite is the case. ''....perhaps the market perception is not AT ALL in line today with where the company is at, and in how we are performing.'' (my capitals for emphahsis). |
EC, the way I see it is that the company has 4 almost live projects. We knew that already. We have known for a while about Bakamla and two follow-ons in the ME. We earlier had advice that a major ME project was developing nicely and perhaps going quicker than expected.
The total project value of these 4 projects is stated as around $420m, whilst the pipeline is $1.5 bn and indications of some additions to that getting closer.
What is new ? Only the confidence that ST expressed in timelines. As long-suffering shareholders we have to take all timelines with large sacks of salt. But....there is a real confidence, expressed in this webcast, that all 4 projects are expected to start before the end of December this year. You can believe that or not. Who knows !? I happen to believe it more than I did yesterday.
''...we are very focussed on those 4, and getting everything in place....as the start of those 4, ALL of them, start WELL before the end of the calendar year'' (my capitals for emphasis).
Bakamla is all agreed and is in final signing process - ''I am not going to put a timeline on it....but it is very close''.
Nexus to start shipping in December.
Best wishes to all. |
Webcast now on site - |
EC, I have to disagree. We knew all of this already, except the UKEF bit, ST just pulled it all together. |
Spot on LaV, I think and hope.
No share price changing specific news imparted and we are all expecting a loss to be reported but lots of reminders that we may soon see significant good news eg, a large, accelerated new contract, a couple of anticipated follow ons, Nexus about to start selling, AKEF loan approved and awaiting sign off. Light at the end of the tunnel? Our CEO is in the ME too, why? |
LaValmy,
Clearly the information imparted was price sensitive; that is clearly demonstrated by the price action.
Price sensitive information should be disclosed to the whole market in an RNS, not just the subset who join a webcast. |
I think one of the main points to note was a comment about how they do not issue RNS's just on a whim or bit of progress. The loan agreement details have been agreed between Indonesia and UKEF, but that is not really RNS worthy. Once the agreemnent is signed it will be.
Also being asked to go the ME for a contract signing is not something for the market (and he has been several times expecting to sign but has lucked out), but when it is signed ... He has never done one of these on the move and it was at very short notice. A clue perhaps? |
Hi EC,
If you take the view that folk were perhaps fearing/ expecting news of a fund-raise (and that dog didn't bark), maybe this is just a 'relief rally' ?
Let's see what the next few weeks bring.
GLA |
I won't have a chance to watch the webcast until this evening, but it would seem plain wrong that information has been given in it sufficient to move the share price up by 20%+ without a proper announcement to the market.
Also, I can't help being concerned that this little pump is a prelude to yet another fundraising. |
Simon's 15 mins presentation has moved the share price up 20%.
I love how he talks about highly technical equipment and systems in a language that even the unnautical investor can understand. |
I bought some more but now finding a lack of sellers. With positive news....surely now it is 'when' not 'if' within the next few weeks (1-10 weeks in my thinking) then the share price will be back above boudicca's famous 50p..... |
'Better safe than sorry' ? |
If they have information to impart why no trading update ? |
For anyone who didn't watch the web cast the hair was clearly a result of superimposing him on a static picture background. |
I know Simon played down the imminence of contract signings but is the fact that he is in the ME now an indication that a contract (or two) may about to be signed? |
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