No doubt LeighFord may have been being sarcastic/ironic about "...ST’s heroic efforts on all fronts and their exemplary attitude to IR", but I don't see where s/he said anything about ST pushing the stock. For my part I see that as an outrageous suggestion, but that's just my personal view. |
 I think it will take a lot more than that.
SRT view and have been doing so for some time now their customers as accounts (it was mentioned in the webcast), the idea being that there will be repeat sales as they build the systems out, recurring revenues from software and satellite data. The plan was to start charging for upgrades from last year or thereabouts - I don't know whether that is happening.
I think the satellite revenue would be already coming in from the Philippines (a £500k was booked a couple of years ago) were it not for the illegal fishermen throwing a major spanner in the works and now that the four years is up, some sort of deal will be necessary for tracking those vessels which fish in High Seas Pocket 1. SRT will not be providing it for free. SRT buy the data by geography and sell by the number of vessels so clearly there is potential for extremely high margin growth as and when these systems are up and running.
All this has yet to be evidenced of course. But it is not unreasonable with say a coast guard that has a 10 year plan for a build-out that there will be significant repeat business. An example could be Bakamla who are buying a system for $180 million. I don't think any transponders are involved so once the system is in place, there will be hundreds of thousands of vessels showing without any reliable means of identifying them. The obvious thing will be to put transponders on them. Then there will be gaps in coverage, along comes satellite data to plug those etc. |
To round off LeighFord's comment above about ST pushing the stock, Shares mag. has recommended it 3 times in the last 2 years. So they saw something here, too. |
It all goes to make a market.
However folks hopefully make money is fine.
There is no doubt SRT is an interesting company, but , to date, it’s been a very poor stock market performer despite ST’s heroic efforts on all fronts and their exemplary attitude to IR.
If only they could meet a forecast it would be a stock market darling. |
FFT - equally true of those with the opposite, day trader style attitude. |
Philburt
Thank you.Satellite data has long been held as the holy grail of repeatable revenues for SRT, but, to date, there is little evidence for it and its quantum. I’m also happy to be corrected if that’s not the case.
fft, surely not! Names please, don’t mention his name (Pike) CountryMan. Our Devon farmer loves a good chat with ST.But I’m sure it doesn’t influence him one bit! |
One point that may or may not be relevant :-). When reading BB posts you need to think about the posters position. Some ultra bullish posters here have large stakes in the company. That may prejudice their thoughts ! |
LF - I think any reference to sale of data for the systems side is referring to sale of satellite data as and when it becomes part of that system. Happy to be corrected on this. |
colliera
Well done for being a lt holder, it certainly hasn’t been an easy hold. Going back in time the guy from red hot penny shares said sell when the share price was about 40p, here we are some 10 years or so later and it’s about 20p with a very significant increase in the shares in issue. That’s a hard slog in anyone’s book.
I’m interested in your point
‘ once a system is in the ongoing revenues are significant for access to the data as well as ongoing support for the installed base. ‘
If that is the case, it would help. Are you saying these countries have to fork out £100m say for the kit, software then they are charged a significant’ amount to access their own data? That doesn’t sound right to me, but if ST can pull that one off then fair play to him. There isn’t any evidence of that to date, eg Bahrain, you can see there are periods when the revenues are just the transceivers business, nothing from systems. That says they are getting diddly squat in on going revenues from the systems side?
Any RNS where these significant ongoing revenues for data are spelt out? |
LeighFord, I think you're right to be sceptical here, but remember once a system is in the ongoing revenues are significant for access to the data as well as ongoing support for the installed base. The more systems in the more the ongoing revenue stream which will help smooth the "lumpiness." For context I am a very long term holder so yes I have fallen for all the jam tomorrows. |
Kuwait or Oman for the $200 million ME contract? All will be revealed in due course. |
CM
All AIM companies have a Nomad, unfortunately that’s no guarantee that any forecast will prove to be correct, as we’ve seen plenty of times with SRT.
A Nomads main aim is two fold, collect their fees and cover their backside.
They have no great insight into the business, they do not ‘validate̵7; a company’s view, you’re kidding yourself if you think this is the case.
The chances of this company consistently and sustainably achieving £50m pbt are slim, based on their, what, 20 year record. Your £50m put implies revenues of say £200m per year if margins are 25%. They will have to increase working capital by a very significant amount to cope with that level of financial strain.
And a p/e of 15 looks very generous for such an uneven , unpredictable and lumpy business. 10 would be more than fair.
Still, back to reality and the long wait continues.
SRT have done a good job to get to where they are now and ST has almost single handedly driven it. A job well done, but for investors , unless you dip in and out, it’s been a disaster of profit warnings and repeated fund raisings. Still, there is always next year. Pass the jam please. |
Hi AE
Hope all is well. Just a guess on my part that it is Oman. Kuwait isn't probably big enough for that much. Also ST said that there had been a recent change in country in question. |
LaV and C5, I note that LaV reckons it's Oman (post 14529) whereas C5 says "(Probably Kuwait ($200 million.)" in his post on 7/6. You're both well informed so which is the correct interpretation of this ME contract? |
I recognise that my views do not find favour with the naysayers and rear-view mirror pessimists. To be fair, their views are represented in the marketplace. In my defense of having an opinion, my views replicate those of the company, which will have been validated by the NOMAD and company solicitor.
If (some will say a big if) events listed in posting 14505 are realised and if DAS and NEXUS deliver in spades, I anticipate PBT of £50 million pa with the market awarding a PE of 15 for a fast-growing company. Market cap of £750 million |
Here is the link to today's webcast.
The run time is 42 mins. |
Three quarters? |
Half right, Kev.
Kev085615310 Jun '24 - 16:27 - 14534 of 14535
There is not a viable business here and the current price is just mad.
Yump is a total idiot. |
listen to pinkfoot |
I’m keen to see the balance sheet at the end of the month as always.Ive reflected on CMs assertion that profit warnings are par for the journey-what a load of bull.You can only indulge in warnings if the projections and forecasts provided to the City are overstated by the company-in this case, three times in a row.Its become a habit but yet we still forgive them! |
Back of the envelope suggests that the systems business comes for free at this price. The transceivers side has very decent prospects with both this Nexus product (if it works) and the DAS/AtoN.
So once the systems side confirms the start of these two contracts, and let us not forget that one is for $180 million, I think that current buyers could be whatever they want to be - sell out on a real spike or hold for more. |
I think most people’s attitude now is “show me the money “. |
LaV -As you say we have been here very many times before and so far so far as I can see the main outsiders who have profited are the fundraisers.
That said interesting spike over the last few days.
Wise investors or short term gamblers? |
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