 SRT Plc is not an investment for widows and orphans. The only truly safe investment is probably government gilts.
If you do not concur with the following four statements, you should probably sell up.
1. SRT is THE global leader in AIS technology.
2. The £140 million Indonesia coastguard contract, signed May 2023, will happen.
3. The remaining stages (£24 million) of the M E coastguard contract, will happen.
4. The finances of the company are secure, and the contracts mentioned above will provide for the repayment of debt.
Your thoughts on the following statements will decide how bullish you are towards SRT.
5. The Philippines Ombudsman’s criticism of the CEO was politically motivated and was driven by the interests of powerful vested interests. A solution will soon be found which will allow the BFAR fish monitoring system to deliver for the Philippines fishing industry. The impending World Bank money and the threat of an EU red card will force the hand of the Supreme Court.
6. SRT is the global leader in Marine Domain Management systems. It has unique technology and is financially competitive against purely satellite systems. It will win the following contracts.:- A. The first of the Philippines coastguard contracts ($50 million). There is mention that this is part of $1 billion, spread over 10 years. B. The next stage of Bahrain ($9 million). C. Probably Kuwait ($200 million.) D. Probably Tanzania.($200 million) E. Probably Vietnam ($100 million).
7. Systems contracts, identified above, will deliver about 30% gross margins, providing for approximately £180 million over a three year period.
The stock market has little confidence in the above statements. I, on the other hand believe that all seven statements will happen. |
LaV - I agree absolutely.
SRT is extremely fortunate to have a solid core of 'delay-hardened' shareholders who are prepared to take the long term view. It appears to have surprised the market today that so few were shaken out. |
Boadicea
From what I have noticed about US companies, they tend to keep a lot of cash and go to the market for more before they need it. SRT generally have done it when they have run out and it has been obvious that they are going to run out hence at low prices, which of course doesn't do existing shareholders any good. And whilst most US companies are as optimistic (or at least say they are) as SRT, they don't rely on that to fund their business. I doubt that many invest their entire cash pile in stock pending future contracts either. Death-wish working capital management just to meet sales forecasts which they have always missed seems to have been the motto at SRT. |
Well they say they have plenty in the tank which might explain the relief |
The risk is a placing which judging by SCE experience could be for a few pennies. |
Yump - The reason for needing a bigger parent is not about getting customers to sign earlier. In this short term country and market, it's about staying solvent long enough to reap the reward. In this respect SRT has done surprisingly well for a small UK company to keep investors on board. They tend to do things better in the US, I think. |
Guys-if SRT say repeatedly it’s coming and out it in their annual forecasts, then the excuse of ‘not in our control’ should be put in the forecasts.The word imminent repeatedly becomes ‘not so imminent’
The company continues to rely on shareholder support for running out of cash-that’s my point about being in a bigger parent |
Bought an additional 11,000 shares at c. 17p yesterday. Already up 15%+. Mustn’t grumble…
Takes my modest holding to c. 265,000 shares. Still happy if I’m looking one or two years ahead. |
I can't help but thinking that SRT's usual mode of operation regarding bad news, i.e. waiting to the last possible moment to acknowledge it, is counter-productive with regards to the share price. The last month or so have seen some very nervous investors unloading at bargain prices, leading to the illiterate selling off at the open (and some lucky punters picking up very cheap stock). We know they are optimists to a fault but the timelines just indicated today suggest that a couple of weeks ago they should have realised that they didn't have a chance of meeting the delayed target. The share price could be starting from a higher base than currently for when the contracts do actually start.
I also suspect from the recent price action and commentary here and elsewhere over the last couple of weeks that when the share price approaches something reasonable that a lot of punters will be bailing out, scarred for life by SRT. Probably at 60p if not before. |
totally agree yump. The delays are not in SRT's control. Bigger owners would have the same issue. |
I'm reminded of Zeno's paradox. This is the one where Zeno says an arrow will never hit its target, because when it gets half-way, it will still have half to go; and when it gets there, it will still have another half to go. So the arrow will never arrive at its target because it will always be half-way there...
Of course we all know that the arrow does eventually hit its target :¬) |
Basically you can’t trust anything the board says about timing as they have been consistently off the mark.
The year end was moved to accommodate technical issues with the accounting-or basically poor Balance sheet.
This company needs to be bought and looked after in a bigger parent.Meanwhile we move on with blind faith.The company lauds its cash reserves but the reality is it came from yet another fundraise and debt-not sales and I’m afraid sales are what makes profit that makes value |
I added 50% early taking my position to overweight then took it back to starting position eagle eye. Still hold by my comment earlier but its a risk return decision. |
Yump they did raise money at 50p. Only a year ago !!! Only 5m, but Simon was convinced contracts would be signed in H2 (which has been a recurring theme of the last few years). They weren't, so we then had the 10m at 35p in december because they would be signed in H1 (see above....)SP is about 40% of June 2023. Yes, there is money to be made, but suspect it will be new investors at today's price, not those who have held for 10 years. This is the lowest price in 10 years I think ? |
Wizard2020,
That's a change of plan.
Two hours ago you said 'if all goes well 40p+ in a year'.
What happened to the plan? Wasn't 100% upside enough? |
Just for yump - ZTF Zotefoams - Subject to success with Rezorce. Already up 50%. Could well double+ if success - Downside limited by existing business streams. |
Taken profit |
It’s called FOMO-usual fare! |
Oh, the merest suggestion of jam tomorrow drives the tastebuds wild. |
I think the only thing that could be criticised about SRT itself is the lack of risk management.
ie. A raise of say £20mln at 50-60p would have been very useful.
But what would existing investors have thought of that ?
Rock and hard place. |
Pugugly
Tell us a share you’re positive about. |
Jeez some got a bargain at open! |
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