Sprue Aegis Share Discussion Threads

[reddave999] 01/5/2015 16:28

Yes it is and it can only be good for the sp:)

[shanklin] 01/5/2015 15:57

This GBP/EUR rate problem seems to be unwinding itself at a rate of knots.

[the big fella] 30/4/2015 12:53

Euro has been strengthening since the results. I wonder what effect the election result will have as well

[its the oxman] 28/4/2015 09:09

Share price has had a couple of big sell offs when it has been good to buy and from which it has recovered over the part month or so. Probably see the same again.

[reddave999] 27/4/2015 13:11

I must admit I am starting to think that way now Referencepoint. Apologies as I am feeling sore after losses on Shoe zone last week also.

[referencepoint] 27/4/2015 12:01

I am not against the use of 'stops' per se, particularly if you have limited access to your accounts during trading hours. However, if you can follow the markets throughout the day, then I think a 'mental' stop is preferable to a 'mechanical' one.
Today is a typical example. Price driven down by small sellers who felt they must get out because everyone else was. They ignored the fundamentals of the business, simply driven by fear.
The price might well have headed down to the level you felt uncomfortable at, but recognising what was happening, you have the opportunity to hold your nerve and ride out the downturn. Not saying it's easy, but you do need to think logically about each situation and importantly, think long term.

[reddave999] 27/4/2015 09:56

I take on board what you say Referencepoint but if you have stops in place then there is little you can do, as what happened to me last week with Shoe Zone, in this case it saved me further losses of 10% had I not had a stop. Fortunately in today's madness I did not have a stop and I held my nerve because I think this company is good and the share price will bounce back:)

[davebowler] 27/4/2015 09:35

Westhouse;


FY 2014 Results

Sprue produced excellent results for 2014 with operating profit nearly doubling year on year to £10.4m. Management has taken full advantage of the positive legislative impetus in Europe, especially France. However, with over half of sales coming from continental Europe, Sprue is facing a currency headwind as the current exchange rate of €1.39/£ is significantly weaker than the average rate in 2014 of €1.24/£. Every one cent move leads to a £0.3m-£0.4m change in revenues and profits. This has meant despite increasing (relative to our previous numbers) our underlying European sales and group forecast substantially in 2015 to £74.9m (£66.1m) our sterling adj. PBT forecast has been reduced to £10.2m (£10.5m). We still expect a fall-off in European sales in 2016 so now forecast group sales of £70.0m (£71.4m) and adj. PBT of £9.2m (£13.1m).

Our 400p target price is based on a conservative DCF analysis backed up by assuming a 2.5% dividend yield. Notwithstanding the impact of the euro weakness, Sprue’s comprehensive product suite should deliver strong underlying operating profit as well as generate significant levels of cash. This should support a strong balance sheet (no debt) with net cash of £15.9m at end 2014 well ahead of our £12.0m forecast and an attractive progressive dividend policy (we make no changes to any of our dividend forecasts). With any strengthening of the euro likely to lead to profit upgrades we see further upside potential in the share price in due course.

[gorilla36] 27/4/2015 09:33

Referencepoint - True, but a bit harsh, we have all been there and a +20% drop on crazy AIM is enough to scare the bejasus out of anybody!

[referencepoint] 27/4/2015 09:26

Only sellers in the market today were small PI's who got out as prices hit their Stops or sold due to classic 'Fear' factor.
They really need to do more research on trading strategy.

[its the oxman] 27/4/2015 09:26

Be kind of amusing to see this close unchanged. Reckon 330p myself.

[themariner] 27/4/2015 09:19

Usual over reaction but will probably settle lower given the relocation uncertainty, the one off nature of France, the currency headwinds and guidance slightly down. 300p seems about right, for a 2.7% yield. Divi's will keep rising, given the cash/no debt position and the loudly proclaimed progressive divi policy.

I think at some point the team will be receptive to an offer at the right price. a 25% premium to 300p would mean a very tasty outcome for this longstanding and superb team (who hold a lot of stock that isn't that easy to sell in the market) - and probably satisfy many shareholders!

[woodcutter] 27/4/2015 09:12

well i added to my holding too on the drop and it's coming back nicely now, patience.

Something kind of wierd in just sitting at your pc quietly waiting for the possible bottom before clicking away. It's a solid business and i'd expect it to recover, the translation currency issues are not so important to me, exchange rates move all the time and no doubt we'll see them turn around at some point.

The sector is growing and legislation will continue to drive it aimho.

woody

[its the oxman] 27/4/2015 09:09

Some institution probably forced through a sale to reduce holding regardless of the price. Gradual recovery now over next few days.

[ayl30] 27/4/2015 09:05

Been watching this for while, bought in today, already in profit

[battlebus2] 27/4/2015 09:05

Haven't held this for a while but pleased to say i caught some on the dip :))

[referencepoint] 27/4/2015 09:03

Massive over reaction to the two negative points in the RNS, totally outweighing the otherwise excellent figures.
Thousands of other UK Co's trade with the Eurozone and currency flucuations haven't hit them (at least not to this extent). That leaves the potential production problems in China. At least they have recognised the problem in advance and are taking action to mitigate the potential problems. Surely not worthy of a 20% price reduction.
Great time to top up IMO.

[chizgreen68] 27/4/2015 09:02

Stopped out. Had to buy them back at a higher price. Hi ho

[macarre] 27/4/2015 08:50

Added just now.

[pugugly] 27/4/2015 08:49

Market cap to revenue still far too high (imo) also revenue boost in France due to legislation is very much a one off (unless legislation introduced elsewhere to make compulsory) The big displays have all been taken down in local Carrefour

I suspect that the orders mentioned may well evaporate as legislation deadline now passed -

Would not be very surprised to see a continued fall back towards the £2.00 placing price.

[harrogate] 27/4/2015 08:47

Ouch! Shame as they are obviously doing a lot right here and the growth has been spectacular. Westhouse had already guided down for 2015 to 20p so a small miss on that is sub 20p. Not sure the new price is all that daft however good the management at about 14 x earnings for a company that in EPS terms has no growth in 2015 and with two lots of uncertainty - the China manufacturing issue which I suspect has done a fair bit of the damage today and the € rate which could easily go lower against the £ thus making it hard for more than 2015. I have not sold as I like the story but hard to see why this should be above £3 now until we get more clarity. Maybe Jarden will look again - there have been a few US deals due to the strong $ recently

[saj3] 27/4/2015 08:43

I've added

[pj 1] 27/4/2015 08:42

Its as if the Market has totally ignored the track record of this Management Team which has recently been strengthened.
I cannot see any doubt that the Co. will not progress as it has and as it predicts

[extrader] 27/4/2015 08:42

Hi all,

Just added 50% to my holding @ 267.4p.

ATB